Toward Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into DoD INRMPs in southern California Climate Informed Management & Monitoring Carolyn Enquist, DOI Southwest Climate Science Center Dawn M. Lawson, SPAWAR SSC Pacific Rob Wolf, Tierra Data Inc. Christy Wolf, Naval Weapons Station Detachment Fallbrook NMFWA 12 March 2015

DoDI (dtd 2011) Natural Resources Conservation Program Instruction (Enclosure 3) DoD Guidance Guidance All DoD components shall…. utilize existing tools to assess the potential impacts of climate change…take steps to implement adaptive management to ensure the long-term sustainability of those resources. DoDM (dtd 2013) INRMP implementation manual (Enclosure 8) Directs installations to proactively identify the likely effects of climate change to adapt and maintain cost effective programs Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

DoD Guidance Climate Informed Management & Monitoring Guidance DoD 2014 Climate Adaptation Road Map “Our first step in planning ….. is to identify the effects of climate change on DoD with tangible and specific metrics using the best available science.”

Military Readiness Threatened & Endangered Species Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity NR Manager’s Plates Are Full Natural Resource Management Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

Integrate Climate Change Adaptation into the natural resources management program in a practical way that supports: climate informed decisions programs addressing existing threats & requirements. The Challenge Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

U.S. Navy photo by MC1 Eli J. Medellin Case Study: Naval Weapons Station Det. Fallbrook Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

General Conservation Management--DoD Instruction Step 1 Assess Military Mission Step 2 Prepare detailed inventory of resources Step 3 Analyze and assess risk to the resources Step 4 Prepare management plan Step 6 Monitor and assess results Step 5 Implement management plan Step 7 Conduct needs assessment survey Step 8 Adjust program, as necessary Step 3 Reanalyze risk Step 2 Reassess detailed inventory of resources Climate Informed Management & Monitoring Adaptive Management

Climate-Informed Adaptive Management 1b. Define objectives 2. Assess impacts 3. Review objectives in context of impacts 4. Identify actions 5. Prioritize actions Adaptive Management Step 1 Assess Military Mission Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

1.Conduct targeted herbicide applications for control or eradication of exotics. 2.Identify refugial habitat for target species 3.Conduct targeted grazing to reduce the biomass of annual exotics & wildfire threat to target spp habitat. 4.Work with fire department to develop pre- suppression & suppression actions for refugia. Key Strategies Identified Climate Informed Management & Monitoring Key Strategies

Develop a strategic “Climate-Informed” Monitoring plan as a key adaptation action… High priority next step: Next Step Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

CIM is a process to evaluate and optimize existing efforts relative to climate-informed management goals & objectives; identify gaps & opportunities What is Climate-Informed Monitoring (CIM)? Process Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

Case Study: Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

To develop methods and a process for evaluating, adjusting, and optimizing existing monitoring efforts to ensure robust information for making climate-informed management decisions Workshop Goal Purpose Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

Step 7. Track action effectiveness & ecological response via monitoring Adaptive ManagementClimate Informed Management & Monitoring

“Unpacking” monitoring Tracking change and strategy effectiveness a. Review monitoring efforts relative to management goals b. Align goals with relevant climate- ecological impacts & indicators c. Adjust or modify monitoring d. Optimize strategies Future Regional Climate Scenarios Adaptive Management Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

Existing Monitoring Effort Ecological ImpactIndicators Existing Monitoring Variable(s) Climate Informed Monitoring Approach Fuel Moisture Sampling

Existing Monitoring Effort Ecological ImpactIndicators Existing Monitoring Variable(s) Climate Informed Monitoring Approach Fuel Moisture Sampling Fog could decline Increase in shrub seedling mortality Decrease in shrub seed production & survival Extended drought short-term changes in dead fuel load from die-back Exacerbated drought stress Changes in phenology

Existing Monitoring Effort Ecological ImpactIndicators Existing Monitoring Variable(s) Climate Informed Monitoring Approach Fuel Moisture Sampling Fog could decline Increase in shrub seedling mortality Decrease in shrub seed production & survival Extended drought short-term changes in dead fuel load from die-back Exacerbated drought stress Changes in phenology RAWS climate data Phenology (green up and brown down) Fuel moisture (live & dead ARTCAL & MALLAU) Monitor on a weekly basis to compute a Fire Danger Rating

Existing Monitoring Effort Ecological ImpactIndicators Existing Monitoring Variable(s) Climate Informed Monitoring Approach Fuel Moisture Sampling Fog could decline Increase in shrub seedling mortality Decrease in shrub seed production & survival Extended drought short-term changes in dead fuel load from die-back Exacerbated drought stress Changes in phenology RAWS climate data Phenology (green up and brown down) Fuel moisture (live & dead ARTCAL & MALLAU) Monitor on a weekly basis to compute a Fire Danger Rating Continue to:  Continue to monitor year round Modify by:  Add fuels phenology  Add Soil Moisture to understand moisture stress  Utilizing remote-sensed cloud imagery (GOES) to characterize spatial structure of radiation (solar) Management Implications of Ecological Impact:  Consider changing window for management fuels treatments

Where do we go from here? Implementation of some of the identified priorities on Camp Pendleton & Detachment Fallbrook while developing larger strategic approach. Opportunities to work across boundaries Other DoD installations Regional partnerships—build on existing through fire and weed management agreements Climate Informed Management & Monitoring Next steps

The next session is an interactive discussion to get your feedback on applicability, opportunities and barriers for CIM on installations you are familiar with. Interactive Discussion Climate Informed Management & Monitoring

“Adapt, improvise, and overcome.” ─ T.C. Cummings Climate Informed Management & Monitoring