CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP – Adaptation Engineering Green Infrastructure in Mitigating Extreme Summer Heat 13 th November 2012 Dong Chen CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences, Melbourne, Australia

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Background o Urban Heat Island (UHI) o + Heat Waves o + Global Warming Extreme summer peak Thermal stress Mortality rate CO 2 emissions ……  Strategies for mitigating the impact ? o Greening ? o Cool roofs ? o Public infrastructure ?

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering The Greening City Project Investigate the potential of green coverage on mitigating the summer peak temperature  Tree canopies and Vegetation  Gardens and parklands  Green roof

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Urban heat island observations in Summer 2009 in Melbourne using satellite images Observations

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Average Daytime Land Surface Temp around 4pm

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Average Nighttime Land Surface Temp around 3am

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering NDVI and Daytime LST (Land Surface Temp) in 2009

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Mortality rate analysis using 22 year data from in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney Health Impact of Extreme Summer Heat

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Mortality Rate vs Temperature (Brisbane)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Mortality Rate vs Temperature (Melbourne)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Mortality Rate vs Temperature (Sydney)

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Potential reduction in mortality rate 0.5  C reduction in the maximum and minimum temperature ~30% reduction in heated related mortality rate in Melbourne ~50% reduction in heated related mortality rate in Sydney ~50% reduction in heated related mortality rate in Brisbane 1.0  C reduction in the maximum and minimum temperature ~50% reduction in heated related mortality rate in Melbourne ~80% reduction in heated related mortality rate in Sydney ~70% reduction in heated related mortality rate in Brisbane

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Potential in mitigating summer peak temperature using urban climate model (TAPM UCM developed by CSIRO) Green coverage in mitigating summer peak temp

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Methodology  TAPM-UCM (Thatcher and Hurley 2012) o 1km grids o Average Summer Daily Maximum Temperature (ASDMT) o Replace CBD with various urban and vegetation schemes (2009) Medium Urban Leafy Urban Grassland Bush land Low density forest CBD with double vegetation and/or green roofs  A2 scenario using the GFDL2.1 model o 2050 o 2090 Thatcher M. and Hurley P Simulating Australian urban climate in a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model. Boundary-Layer Meteorology. 142,

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Predicted average summer daily maximum temperature reduction for 2009 (CBD as reference) Source: D.Chen, Mitigating Extreme Summer Temperatures with Vegetation, Hort Journal, June 2012 Issue no.5.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Methodology  TAPM-UCM (Thatcher and Hurley 2012) o 1km grids o Average Summer Daily Maximum Temperature (ASDMT) o Replace CBD with various urban and vegetation schemes (2009) Medium Urban Leafy Urban Grassland Bush land Low density forest CBD with double vegetation and/or green roofs  A2 scenario using the GFDL2.1 model o 2050 o 2090 Thatcher M. and Hurley P Simulating Australian urban climate in a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model. Boundary-Layer Meteorology. 142,

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Predicted average summer daily maximum temperature for 2009, 2050, 2090 Source: D.Chen, Mitigating Extreme Summer Temperatures with Vegetation, Hort Journal, June 2012 Issue no.5.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Predicted average summer daily maximum temperature reduction for 2009, 2050 and 2090 Source: D.Chen, Mitigating Extreme Summer Temperatures with Vegetation, Hort Journal, June 2012 Issue no.5.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Findings from Melbourne Study Suburb areas are around 0.5  C cooler; A leafy suburb area around 0.7  C cooler; A parkland (such as grassland, shrub-land and sparse low forest) or rural area may be around 1.5, 2  C cooler; Doubling the CBD vegetation coverage may reduce 0.3  C ASDM temperature; 50% green roof coverage of the CBD area may result in 0.4  C ASDM temperature reduction; ASDM temperature reduction of around 0.7  C may be achievable by doubling the CBD vegetation coverage and having 50% green roof coverage in the CBD area. If urban forms do not change, these relative potentials in summer maximum temperature reduction will be the same under Global warming.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Urban vegetation on indoor thermal environment Cadot et al. (2007) reported that 74% of excess deaths during the 2003 summer heat wave in Paris occurred among those who were living at home. How about in Melbourne ? Cadot E., Rodwin V.G. and Spira A In the heat of the summer: lessons from the heat waves in Paris. J Urban Health, 84(4), 466–8.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Urban vegetation on indoor thermal environment NorthEastSouthWest A detached house, a semi-detached townhouse; an apartment Rotate in north, east, south and west; Ambient temperature modified by various vegetation schemes

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Urban vegetation on indoor thermal environment

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering The Greening City research team Guy Barnett 1, Matt Beaty 1, Dong Chen 1, CunRui Huang 4, Anthony Kachenko 3, YongBing Khoo 1, Robert Price 3, Zhengen Ren 1, Marcus Thatcher 2, Shilu Tong 4, Chi-hsiang Wang 1, Xiaoming Wang 1 1 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Melbourne 2 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Melbourne 3 Nursery & Garden Industry Australia, Sydney 4 Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane Project funded by Horticulture Australia Limited using the Nursery Industry Levy (Project # NY11013) and CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship.

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP- Adaptation Engineering Thanks Dong Chen Leader of Climate Adaptation Engineering Climate Adaptation Flagship Phone: Web: