The Mixed System: How did primaries change the presidential nomination process?

Methods of Nominating Presidential Candidates “King Caucus”: Convention System:

The Convention System National party nominating convention selects presidential candidate National party nominating convention selects presidential candidate Strong parties Strong parties Patronage Patronage High participation High participation Parties try to control presidents Parties try to control presidents

Three changes at the turn of the 20 th century Civil Service Civil Service

Rise In Civil Service Employment

Number of federal employees under merit system,

Three changes at the turn of the 20 th century Civil Service Civil Service Communications technology Communications technology

Changes in technology Railroads (1850s +) Railroads (1850s +) Daily newspapers (1880s +) Daily newspapers (1880s +) Radio and TV (1930s +) Radio and TV (1930s +)

Number of daily and weekly newspapers

Number of Households with radio and TV (in millions)

Three changes at the turn of the 20 th century Civil Service Civil Service Communications technology Communications technology Primary elections Primary elections

Number of States Holding Primary Elections

First Three Methods of Nominating Presidential Candidates “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System:

Mixed System Real decision about nomination made at national convention Real decision about nomination made at national convention Candidates can choose to run in primaries Candidates can choose to run in primaries

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

Number of Convention Ballots to Select Presidential Nominee

Number of Convention Ballots to Select the Presidential Nominee

1952 Democratic Convention: Delegates pledged by primaries Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): delegates Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): delegates Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegates Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegates Uncommitted: delegates Uncommitted: delegates Others: Others: –Sen. Richard Russell (GA): delegates –Averell Harriman: delegates –Sen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegates

Review the three systems we’ve discussed. Which do you think is most democratic? Which has the best chance of producing good presidents?

1968 Democratic Convention

The Primary System

Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: Convention System: Mixed System: Primary System: 1972-???

McGovern Fraser Commission: Changes to Democratic Party Rules Anti-discrimination provisions Anti-discrimination provisions Explicit party rules and open party meetings Explicit party rules and open party meetings Bans the UNIT RULE Bans the UNIT RULE –Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashion Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders

Number of states holding primary elections

Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

Some delegates still chosen by other means Caucus: Caucus: –A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come and express their opinions State convention: State convention: –Local party groups select delegates to state party convention. State convention delegates select delegates to national nominating convention.

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media –(And hence the importance of early primaries!)

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!)

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census Iowa New Hampshire National average Population2,929,324 (30 th ) 1,235,786 (41 st ) 281,421,906 % White 93.9%96%75.1% Median income $39,469$49,467$41,994 % Farm employmt 4.4%.9%1.9%

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of national party conventions

Consequences of Party Reform Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries Increase in importance of early primaries Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of state party leaders Decreases importance of state party leaders Party activists give way to candidate activists Party activists give way to candidate activists

Changes After 1968 McGovern-Fraser reforms McGovern-Fraser reforms FECA FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections –All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year Bans large donations by individuals Bans large donations by individuals –Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate

Consequences of Party Reform & FECA Increase in number of primaries Increase in number of primaries Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of media Increase in importance of early primaries Increase in importance of early primaries Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of national party conventions Decreases importance of state party leaders Decreases importance of state party leaders Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise big money in small contributions!) Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise big money in small contributions!)

A Couple of Problems? Ideological primary voters? Ideological primary voters? Candidates mobilize factions? Candidates mobilize factions?