Update on Wales’ Climate Change Strategy Andy Fraser Head – Climate Change Policy Climate Change & Water Division

In this presentation… Targets and commitments Wales’ Climate Change Strategy Links to UK climate change policy development UK Climate projections Next steps

Welsh Assembly’s targets and commitments Strong commitment in ‘One Wales’ We will aim to achieve annual carbon reduction-equivalent emissions reductions of 3% per year by 2011 in areas of devolved competence. We will set out specific sectoral targets in relation to residential, public and transport areas. We will work with the heavy industry/power generation industries to reduce emissions in those sectors Also clear UK, EU and international targets

The 3% target Proposed approach set out in earlier consultation In summary: –Includes all greenhouse gases –Covers all ‘direct’ emissions (except those from heavy industry and power generation) and electricity consumption emissions –Baseline will be an average of emissions in

Sector targets Proposed approach set out in current consultation, the Programme of Action Intend to set a minimum contribution to emission reductions over a ten-year period: –Transport - emissions to stabilise and then start to decline over ten years –Residential - building on the existing downward trajectory continuing year on year reduction over the next ten years –Public sector – we expect every part of the public sector in Wales to be working towards 3% annual reductions in the greenhouse gas emissions for which they are responsible

UK targets Through the Kyoto Protocol, the UK is committed to reducing its greenhouse emissions by 12.5 per cent over the period 2008 – 2012 against a 1990 baseline Through the Climate Change Act, it is committed to: –Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline –To reduction greenhouse gas emissions by at least 34% by 2020 against a 1990 baseline –To establish, via secondary legislation, carbon budgets, on aggregate greenhouse gas emissions over five year periods

EU targets Through the Climate and Energy package: –To reduce the EU’s overall emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 (and to scale up this reduction to as much as 30% under a new global climate change agreement) –It has also set itself the target of increasing the share of renewables in energy use to 20% by 2020 and to raise energy efficiency by 20% by 2020

Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – phase one High Level Policy Statement consultation Published in January 2009 Set out proposed definitions of our targets and the broad areas for action to tackle the causes and consequences of climate change

Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – phase two Programme of Action consultation sets out in more detail the proposed actions to deliver climate change objectives and puts them in the context of UK and EU policy and the contribution that each sector can make Based on: –Responses to first consultation –Committee on Climate Change Report –Contributions from Assembly Government Departments –Reports from Climate Change Commission for Wales Sub Groups –Other sources including a report commissioned from AEA on Policy options for greenhouse gas emission reduction in Wales

Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – phase two Programme of Action consultation sets out 23 proposals covering the following sectors:  Transport  Business  Residential  Waste  Public  Agriculture and land management The consultation also includes proposals on climate change adaptation

Programme of Action proposals Proposals clustered around: –Communication and awareness raising –Advice, support and tools to assist people in taking action Exemplify, Enable, Encourage, Engage –Building climate change into existing funding –Factoring emissions into all policy decisions –Stipulating standards and regulation –New capital programmes Proposals outlined represent plans to commit £300 million by all Ministers and across all departments within the Welsh Assembly Government to contribute to tackling climate change

Committee on Climate Change report Macro analysis of abatement potential and costs Focus is scale of potential savings and the type of interventions that might help secure them – not detailed policy recommendations Key areas with abatement potential: –Energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry – measures such as loft and cavity wall insulation, turning appliances off and using less air conditioning, and which will be particularly important for reducing emissions in the period to 2020 –Decarbonisation of the power sector – starting now and continuing through the 2020s, based on replacing existing conventional fossil fuel fired plants with renewable, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies

Committee on Climate Change report cont. Transport sector decarbonisation – first through improving fuel efficiency of conventional engines and increased use of sustainable first generation biofuels, with progressive introduction of new technologies such as electric cars, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen vehicles, and second generation biofuels. Heat sector decarbonisation – through increased use of biomass in boilers and CHP, air exchange and ground source heat pumps, and modern electric storage heating. Decarbonisation of industry – through the introduction of new technologies such as CCS in cement, iron and steel.

Links to climate change policy Considerable activity to implement the Climate Change Act and bring forward policies and proposals aimed at meeting the targets and budgets Preparation for decision on level of first three carbon budgets and related issues – informed by the advice of the Committee on Climate Change and the responses from the devolved administrations Consultation recently closed on Energy Efficiency and Heat Savings, Community Energy Saving Programme and CERT+ Development of report setting out policies and programmes to meet the budgets (required by the Climate Change Act) Assembly Government liaising closely to maximise the benefits of our respective policies and programmes

UK Climate Change Projections (UKCP09) Key findings for Wales (based on ‘medium emissions’ scenario): –Across Wales by 2050, average annual temperatures are projected to increase by 2.3°C –In summer, daily maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 3.4 °C –In winter, daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5 °C –Rainfall is projected to increase in winter on average by 14% and decrease in summer by 16%. Overall the total annual average rainfall in predicted to remain the same. –Sea levels around Wales are predicted to rise by approximately 20 cm by 2050.

UK Climate Change Projections (UKCP09): the impacts The impacts that can be expected from these changes to Wales’ climate are: –Hotter and drier summers –Increase in extremely hot days –Milder wetter winters –Reduction in snowfall and frost –Increase in frequency of intense rainfall –Decrease in groundwater levels –Increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas

UKCP09: the consequences Hotter drier summers –Increased thermal discomfort in buildings –Greater demand for air conditioning –Increased human health problems in the summer Temperature Air pollution –Water shortages more commonplace –Animal health and disease Milder winters –Reduction in number and severity of frosts Longer growing seasons –Reduced demand for winter heating But potential for cold snaps

UKCP09: the consequences Flood risk –Increased river and urban flooding –Increased coastal erosion –Increased pressure on sewerage systems Biodiversity –Impact on Wales’ ecosystems following changes in temperature and rainfall profiles Loss or migration of climate-sensitive species Non-native species likely to become more widespread as Welsh climate becomes more favourable

Next steps Consultation events being planned for July, August and September to take views on the Programme of Action proposals Training workshop(s) on UKCP09 Oct – Programme of Action consultation closes Autumn – UK Government report on progress in meeting the carbon budgets and targets Year end – final Assembly Government Climate Change Strategy published

Update on Wales’ Climate Change Strategy Andy Fraser Head – Climate Change Policy Climate Change & Water Division