Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan Trop goup.

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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Results from HiGEM Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Kevin Hodges and Dr. Jane Strachan Trop goup – 10th Oct

Will there be a change in TC activity (location, intensity, frequency, lifetime, structure) with climate change? How does this change depend on resolution? How well are the governing mechanisms represented in climate models and how does resolution affect their representation? What is the role of teleconnections - Possible ENSO changes on NAtl TC activity? [What is the role of coupling with the ocean?] PhD questions

Explaining the change of TC activity – Change in parameters relevant to TCs: SST, vws, RH, -ω Investigating the ENSO teleconnections on TCs (and possible ENSO change) - Change in NINO3.4 SSTs - El Niño composites vs. La Niña composites Current work

Tighter filter on storms. Warm core testing between individual levels (still applying dec. Vor. With height) Test for cold core at lower levels and warm core aloft Removes monsoon type depressions New warm core level TRACKing

Change in track densities with increased CO 2

Change in TC frequency (%) TC/yrNHATLWPACEPACNIND % change For ctrl att 30yr 2xCO yr 4xCO CPAC

Regional change of 850hPa wspeed

Large scale tropical change

regional scale tropical change

Change in SST Zhao et al (2009)

Change in vws Vecchi et al (2007)

Change in RH 700 Vecchi et al (2007)

Change in –ω 500

Change in ppt

ENSO telleconnections on HiGEM TCs Bengtsson et al (2006) NINO3.4 SST DJF > 1 or <1, year containing D

Future work More analysis explaining the TC change – change in Walker and Hadley plots TCs in different resolutions and climate change simulations Changes in SH ENSO influence on NATL activity - compare IBTrACS and reanalysis to HiGEM present day simulation.

2 types of ENSO in HiGEM Kug and Ham (2011) Investigate change in TC activity with the 2 types of El Nino. Investigate the change in types of ENSO in HiGEM inc. CO2 and the TC relation

HiGEM CTRL TC frequency CPAC 5x30 years ctrl 4.3 (1-4.4) 3 (0-4.2) TC/yrNHATLWPACEPACNIND att 5x30 years ctrl 67.3 ( ) 49.8 ( ) 4 (5.1- 2) 3 (1- 4.1) 32.6 ( ) 28.6 ( ) 19.4 ( ) 10.4 ( ) 4.6 (3- 5.6) 3.1 ( ) Obs (83-07) Atl Additional obs are , , , , From Blake (2010)

Change in structure 100 most intense TCs at most intense 4xCO2 Earth relative winds Below 35 o N NH 2xCO2 10 o radius 850hPa Avg 30 yr ctrl