The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty Mahar Mangahas Presented during the 1st M&E Network Forum organized by NEDA and UNICEF, November 7-8, 2011 Crowne Plaza Manila Galleria, Quezon City

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, On Feb. 8, 2011, NSCB announced a “refinement” of the average official poverty line for 2009, to Php 7,017 from Php 7,953 (by 11.8%), per month for a family of 5. This reduced officially-poor families to 20.9% from 26.3% (by 5.4 pts), or to 3.9M from 4.9M (by 1M families). This also reduced the officially-poor population to 26.5% from 32.6% (by 6.1 pts), or to 23.1M from 28.5M (by 5.4M people). HOW NSCB “REDUCED” POVERTY

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, HOW NSCB DOWNGRADED THE NCR FOOD BUNDLE Meal timeViands BreakfastTomato omelette Coffee for adults Milk for children Fried rice Luncha. Fried galunggong b. Mongo guisado with malunggay leaves and small shrimps Boiled rice Banana latundan DinnerPork adobo Pechay guisado Boiled rice Banana latundan SnacksPandesal with margarine Source: “Refinements in Measuring Poverty” by Dr. Romulo Virola, NSCB. Meal timeViands BreakfastScrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice Luncha. Boiled mongo with malunggay leaves and dried dilis Boiled rice Banana latundan DinnerFried tulingan Boiled kangkong Boiled rice SnacksPandesal Old methodology“Refined” methodology

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, It downgraded the quality of the diet of the borderline poor so as to cut the food threshold. By reducing the officially-seen evidence of poverty, it covered up the extent of the poverty problem. It has never worked on specific non-food needs, aside from allotting a fixed 31 centavos for every 69 centavos for food. THE NSCB “REFINED” METHODOLOGY TRULY REDUCED THE OFFICIAL LIVING STANDARD

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, NSCB’S OLD AND “REFINED” THRESHOLDS Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 17. NSCB compares old to new, rather than new to old!

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, MONTHLY FOOD POVERTY THRESHOLD FOR A FAMILY OF FIVE (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNew O - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES3,3953, ,1773, ,2984, NCR4,1564,073824,9204, ,2215, CAR3,8093, ,5153, ,6164, Region I3,7083, ,4204, ,5935, Region II3,3383, ,8943, ,2574, Region III3,8953, ,5404,466745,8175, Region IV-A3,8433, ,4924, ,7535, Region IV-B3,4703, ,0753, ,1554, Region V3,4913, ,2393, ,4544, Region VI3,4933, ,1513, ,3114, Region VII2,9233, ,9594, ,8295, Region VIII3,2042, ,0303, ,1674, Region IX3,0182, ,9193, ,8654, Region X3,3313, ,0653, ,1394, Region XI3,2733, ,2853, ,4084, Region XII3,2532, ,0433, ,0054, CARAGA3,4843, ,3093, ,4654, ARMM3,6382, ,2993, ,4784,

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, MONTHLY POVERTY THRESHOLD FOR A FAMILY OF FIVE (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNewO - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES5,1294, ,2745, ,9537, NCR6,9745,8321,1428,5696,8701,70010,5448,2512,293 CAR5,8474,5341,3137,0045,4071,5988,8856,7182,168 Region I5,5344, ,6485, ,1827, Region II4,7574, ,7465, ,6536,3781,275 Region III5,9915, ,2086, ,9767,9091,068 Region IV-A6,1335, ,4005,9521,4499,0717,4081,663 Region IV-B5,1684, ,1675, ,6216,5701,051 Region V5,1584, ,2565, ,8557, Region VI5,1214, ,0025, ,6006, Region VII4,0854, ,5796, ,9637, Region VIII4,5024, ,8234, ,3386, Region IX4,3364, ,5084, ,8456, Region X4,8354, ,9165, ,3676, Region XI4,7504, ,2265, ,9397, Region XII4,7204, ,9275, ,1556, CARAGA4,9984, ,3545, ,9937, ARMM5,3224,0271,2956,4725,1491,3238,0376,8061,

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, NSCB’S REDUCTION OF POVERTY (8 Feb 2011) Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 18. This would have made PH the worst in ASEAN!

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, NSCB’S REDUCTION OF POVERTY (14 Feb 2011) Source: “Refinements in Measuring Poverty” by Dr. Romulo Virola, NSCB. This would have made PH second- worst in ASEAN! NSCB in effect asserts that 45.3% % = 12.2% of the people in 1991 were “not really” poor!

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, POVERTY % OF FAMILIES (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNew O - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES NCR CAR Region I Region II Region III Region IV-A Region IV-B Region V Region VI Region VII Region VIII Region IX Region X Region XI Region XII CARAGA ARMM

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, POVERTY % OF POPULATION (OLD VS. NEW/REFINED), 2003, 2006, 2009 OldNew O - N OldNew O - N OldNew O - N PHILIPPINES NCR CAR Region I Region II Region III Region IV-A Region IV-B Region V Region VI Region VII Region VIII Region IX Region X Region XI Region XII CARAGA ARMM

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, ALL NSCB ACHIEVED WAS WINDOW-DRESSING Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 16. At the “old” estimates of 37.3% or 32.9%, PH would be either worst or 2 nd -worst in ASEAN!

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, NSCB WENT ANTI-LABOR BY CLAIMING “A MINIMUM WAGE EARNER IN NCR CAN SUPPORT A FAMILY OF SIX.” Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics. February 8, 2011 presentation of Dr. Romulo Virola (NSCB), p. 13.

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, It does nothing to deal with the problem of lack of annual poverty statistics. It fosters complacency about Philippine poverty, turning attention to comparison with other countries, instead of improvements over time. It works against the need of workers to maintain the real wage, let alone upgrade it. If adopted for program targeting (e.g. CCT), it will lower the number of qualified beneficiaries. THE EFFECT OF NSCB’S POVERTY “REFINEMENT”

The Official Reduction of Evidence on Poverty 1 st M&E Network Forum, November 7, CONCLUSION: THE NSCB’S POVERTY “REFINEMENT” SHOULD BE REJECTED, BECAUSE REDUCING THE EVIDENCE ABOUT POVERTY IS AGAINST THE PRINCIPLE OF EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING