US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Mid-West Electric Consumers Association September 16, 2014 Corps of Engineers US Army Missouri River Mainstem System Draft Annual Operating Plan Mike Swenson, P.E. Power Production Team Lead Missouri River Basin Water Management

Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center

June Precipitation – Percent of Normal

July Precipitation – Percent of Normal

August Precipitation – Percent of Normal

3-Month Outlooks August - October

Missouri River Mainstem System Annual Runoff above Sioux City, IA Million Acre-Feet U.D. L.D. L.Q. U.Q. Med. 10% 90% 75% 25% 50% 34.5 MAF Historic Drought Periods 2014

Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City, IA 2014 Actual and Forecasted Million Acre-Feet

Missouri River Mainstem System Storage Zones and Allocations Exclusive Flood Control 7% Carryover Multiple Use 53% Permanent Pool 24% Storage In MAF 33.9 Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16% Sept 16, 2014 Historic max Historic min MAF - March 1, 2014

Current Reservoir Levels – Sept 15, 2014 Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool Exclusive Flood Control Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use Carryover Multiple Use Permanent Pool Fort Peck Oahe Garrison System Storage feet below base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone.7.2 feet above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone. 6.9 feet above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone.4.7 MAF above base of Carryover Multiple Use Zone.

BUILDING STRONG ® 2014 Reservoir Operations  Flood Control ► System storage peaked on September 1 at 61.3 MAF, utilizing 32 percent of the system’s flood control storage ► Gavins Point releases reduced in mid-June in response to record flooding on the Big Sioux River. Release reduction lowered peak stages 3 to 4 feet in most areas ► Releases increased at lower four projects in September to evacuate stored water  Navigation ► Started season at intermediate service ► Increased to full service flow support after July 1 storage check ► 10-Day extension to the navigation season  Hydropower ► Annual generation forecast is 9.9 BkWh; long term average is 9.4 BkWh  Recreation, Water Supply and Irrigation ► Normal to above reservoir levels and releases ► Gavins Point winter release will be 20,000 cfs  Fish and Wildlife / Endangered Species ► All three upper reservoirs rose this year during the forage fish spawn ► Spring pulses from Gavins Point dam were not conducted this year

BUILDING STRONG ® Planned Operation for 2015  Draft Annual Operating Plan developed using 1 September starting conditions ► Based on 5 statistical runoff scenarios ► Will begin runoff year at the base of the Annual Flood Control Zone ► No spring pulse in 2015  Letter to Tribes will offer consultation  Draft AOP released in September 2014  Public meetings scheduled for October 27-29, 2014 ► Fort Peck, Bismarck, Pierre, Smithville and Council Bluffs  Final Annual Operating Plan in December 2014

System Storage Decision Points Top of Exclusive Flood Control – 72.4 maf Base of Exclusive Flood Control – 67.7 maf Million Acre-Feet Base of Annual Flood Control – 56.1 maf Navigation Preclude – 31 maf

Missouri River Downstream Flow Support Support for 2015 Navigation Season Runoff Scenario Annual Runoff Volume (MAF) July 1 System Storage (MAF) Flow Level Above or Below Full Service (in kcfs) Length of Shortening (Days) SpringFall Upper Decile * Upper Quartile * Median Lower Quartile Lower Decile * 10-day extension for Upper Quartile and Upper Decile

BUILDING STRONG ® Draft Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Median Runoff Condition  Flood Control ► Begin 2015 runoff season at the base of the annual flood control zone  Navigation ► Full service flow support to start season ► Full service flow support for Lower Quartile and above runoff following July 1 storage check ► Full length navigation season  Hydropower – Annual Generation = 9.7 BkWh in 2015

BUILDING STRONG ® Draft Annual Operating Plan (AOP) Median Runoff Condition  Recreation, water supply and irrigation ► Near normal reservoir levels and releases ► Winter releases of 17,000 cfs from Gavins Point  Fish and Wildlife / Endangered Species ► Favor Fort Peck and Oahe during forage fish spawn ► No March and May spring pulses from Gavins Point ► Minimize zero releases at Fort Randall to the extent reasonably possible

Missouri River Mainstem System Forecasted Energy Generation Upper Basic: 10,500 GWh Basic: 9,900 GWh Lower Basic: 9,400 GWh Energy in GWh

BUILDING STRONG ® Mainstem System Generation Million MWhs Normal UD Med LD

BUILDING STRONG ®

Missouri River Basin – Mountain Snowpack Water Content with comparison plots from 1997*, 2001*, and 2011 The mountain snowpack peaked in the “Total above Fort Peck” reach on April 7 at 132% of the normal April 15 peak. The mountain snowpack peaked in the “Total Fort Peck to Garrison” reach on April 17 at 140% of the normal April 15 peak. *Generally considered the high and low year of the last 20-year period.Provisional data. Subject to revision. July 7, 2014

BUILDING STRONG ® Plains Snowpack 1 March March March 2011

Graphics courtesy of National Drought Mitigation Center

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