EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture – an Irish example Jasmina Behan Kevin Hanrahan

Outline Introduction AG-MEMOD: A European model in development FAPRI-Ireland: Methodology that will be applied at EU and other member state levels FAPRI-Ireland: Analysis to date for Ireland of GHG emmissions from agriculture

AG-MEMOD Partnership: Agri-food projections for EU member states FP-5 collaborative project Building economic models of MS agricultural sectors MS Models combined to form model of EU agricultural sector Dynamic partial equilibrium econometric models 27 commodities, countries Baseline and Scenario projections of agricultural activity at MS and EU levels to a 10 year horizon

AG-MEMOD Partnership Agri-food projections for EU member states

MS models capture inherent heterogeneity Common approach ensures consistent models Models at a member state level add-up to EU total Activity projections available at MS and EU levels Such projections can be used to project agriculture’s GHG contribution – Under Baseline of no further policy change – Under Scenario of some policy change, e.g. the EC MTR

FAPRI-Ireland Partnership Consortium founded in 1997 Teagasc (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority) Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) (Missouri, USA) National Universities of Ireland Partner project in Northern Ireland

Methodology Model of agricultural economy Projections of agricultural activities Implications for GHG and ammonia emissions

Multi-product modelling system Supply and demand interrelationships Partial equilibrium model Econometric Dynamic model Methodology

Cereals Inputs Poultry Pigs Sheep Beef Dairy Milk Output Values Beef Output Values Sheep Output Values Poultry Output Values Pig Output Values Poultry Meal Prices Poultry Numbers Poultry Prices Dairy Cow Numbers Dairy Meal Price Cereal Prices, Production, Value & Hectares Cattle Feed Price Cattle Numbers Cattle Feed Price Pig Numbers Pig Meal Price Beef Cow Numbers Dairy Cow Numbers Commodity model inter linkages

Total Milk Production Liquid Milk Butter Cream Cheese WMP Choc. Crumb Manufacturing Milk Price Liquid Milk Price Domestic Sales Intervention Domestic Sales Exports Milk Output Milk Output per CowNo. Dairy Cows Milk Fed to Livestock On Farm Human Use SMP Casein Manufacturing Milk Misc. Prods. Liquid Consumption Milk Delivered Dairy model

Historical data collected Equations specified (Y =  +  1 X 1 +  2 X 2 ) Equations estimated Models assembled in spreadsheets System solved Projections generated National expert review Methodology

Macroeconomic conditions Policy conditions Market conditions Events in other agriculture sectors Activity data projections

Projections 10 year horizon Baseline  Current policy remains in place  Current international agreements in place  No new policy Scenario  Alternative policy  Method of differences

Baseline projections 2002 Extensification scenario Decoupling scenario Ireland: results to date Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Ireland: results to date Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture Mt CO 2 equivalents

Conclusions Models developed to analyse agricultural policy can also project GHG emmission levels under Baseline and policy change scenarios Activity projections based on economic models enable conversion to GHG emissions projections based on best scientific information available Provide information with which to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy changes on GHG emmissions into the future

FAPRI-Ireland Partnership AG-MEMOD Partnership Web addresses