Visions of a High Tech U.S. -Cuban Economic Relationship Kenneth Flamm Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin kflamm@mail.utexas.edu
High Tech Means an Outward Looking Development Strategy High tech is global markets and an international business model Key elements High tech/services niches: Leverage strength in education/literacy “Official” biotech strategy can only work if fully plugged into global trading system, foreign partners/markets Competition with Asia, Rest of Latin America E.g., take some of Spanish language software localization business from Argentina
Cuba Already Participates in Global Open Source Community www.linux.cu www.giga.islagrande.cu
Cuban Internet Infrastructure a Critical Issue for Economic Growth Very poor connections to rest of the Net Good connections a distant and expensive dream on current trajectory Tangled history in first years of new century
Cuba Joined the Online World in the 1990s Year of introduction of international connectivity for e-mail (BITNET/UUCP) and IP networks
Latin American NRENs, ~ 2002
Latin American/European Networking Overtures 2002– EU-funded CAESAR feasibility study of Latin America-EU network links 2003-2006– CLARA (Cooperación Latino Americana de Redes Avanzadas, Uruguay-based nonprofit consortium of Latin American NRENs) and EU undertake EU-funded ALICE (America Latina Interconectada Con Europa) networking project Cuba is member of CLARA Links to ALICE 80% subsidized by EU Cuba offered subsidy for proposed connection Existing fiber runs under Caribbean very close to Havana Cuba declines
Integración a Redes Académicas Internacionales Red CLARA
Central America & Caribean Submarine Cables, ~2003 Arcos Plan Puebla-Panamá in Planning Process
The Current Game Plan
But existing Cuban backbone supports shorter, cheaper, shallower links
Red Nacional de Fibra Óptica Desarrollo futuro Stgo de Cuba Holguín Bayamo Camagüey Nueva Gerona Matanzas V. Clara Cárdenas Colón Sagua la Grande Puerto Padre Manzanillo Palma Soriano Mayari San Cristóbal Moa Sandino Trinidad Nuevitas Pinar del Río Guantánamo Las Tunas C. de Avila S.Spíritus Artemisa San José Placetas Florida Varadero Jovellanos Cienfuegos Morón
Cancun, Caymans, Jamaica, Bahamas Turks…and FL… all short and cheap (~2006)
A lot of investment needed A lot of investment needed! -Estimated 200-500K individuals with access to Internet in Cuba -Official data on University computers/Net show poor access
US & Cuban Strategic Interests For US, migration and drug interdiction are primary Economic gains from trade & investment likely to be relatively small For Cuba, economic gains and security guarantees primary Rapprochment will require package that addresses all of above “Looser” political system in Cuba may well have less ability to deliver US objectives