REPUBLIC OF UGANDA Population Secretariat Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development 1

2 Uganda: Population Factors & National Development October 2009 J. Owen-Rae / USAID

Outline I.The Ugandan Development Vision II.Population Situation III.Relationship between Population and Economic Development IV.Population and Social and Economic Development in Uganda V.Policy Response 3 3

Outline I.The Ugandan Development Vision II.Population Situation III.Relationship between Population and Economic Development IV.Population and Social and Economic Development in Uganda V.Policy Response 4

Despite notable progress, Uganda remains among the poorest countries in the world...

Uganda's Development Vision 6 A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years

7 What is the importance of population factors to the ability of Uganda to achieve its national vision in coming decades?

Outline I.The Ugandan Vision II.Population Situation III.Relationship between Population and Economic Development IV.Population and Social and Economic Development in Uganda V.Policy Response 8

Population growth 9

Fertility rate 10 Uganda’s fertility rate is 6.7 children per woman Source: Uganda Demographic and Health Survey 2006 © 2008 Dave Blume

Comparative fertility rates 11

12 Uganda has a very young population... About half the population is under the age of Age in years Percent of the population

Fertility rate assumptions... 13

Uganda’s population will grow rapidly with continued high fertility... 14

However, the population will grow more slowly if fertility declines in coming decades... 15

Outline I.The Ugandan Development Vision II.Population Situation III.Relationship between Population and Economic Development IV.Population and Social and Economic Development in Uganda V.Policy Response 16

17 Two Major Messages... 1)Slower population growth creates the potential to increase the pace of aggregate economic growth 2)Rapid fertility decline at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families Source: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World and Population Dynamics and Economic Development: Filling the Research Gaps. Photo credit: K. Burns / USAID.

18 Africa looks to learn from the East Asian countries the best ways of achieving fast economic growth.

The Asian Tigers achieved unexpectedly rapid development 19

Thailand emerged as a middle-income country in a single generation... Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3,

Thai fertility moved from high to low levels... Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3,

22 Declining fertility a key factor in the Asian economic “miracle”...  Greater emphasis on the quality of the population rather than sheer numbers  More and better educational opportunities  More investment in modern agriculture  Higher levels of savings and investment with lower dependency ratios

Uganda aspires to become a strong middle-income economy in Africa... 23

Outline I.The Ugandan Development Vision II.Population Situation III.Relationship between Population and Economic Development IV.Population and Social and Economic Development in Uganda V.Policy Response 24

© 2007 David Sasaki Urbanisation Population affects social and economic development in Uganda Education K. Burns / USAID Agriculture © 2005 Laura Darby Economy © 2008 Maisha Elonai Environment © 2004 Louris Yamaguchi Health © 2006 AMREF, Courtesy of Photoshare

Uganda’s Population Growth 26

Education

Number of primary students,

Number of primary teachers required,

Annual education expenditures, High fertility Declining fertility 30

Annual education expenditures, High fertility Declining fertility 31 Cumulative savings Ush230 billion

Health 32 © 2008

Number of nurses required,

Number of health centres required,

Annual health expenditures, High fertility Declining fertility 35

Annual health expenditures, High fertility Declining fertility Cumulative savings $6.4 billion

Birth spacing improves child health Source: UDHS,

Agriculture & Environment © 2006 Rob & Ale Youngrobv

Plan for the Modernisation of Agriculture K. Burns / USAID

Rapid population growth works against modernisation In many parts of the country, rapid population growth in the rural areas has led to  deforestation  soil erosion  land degradation  smallholding fragmentation trees/ /sizes/m/ Source: Trees For The Future

New rural households, 2007– ,496,990 4,436,743

Minimum food requirements*, *Assumes production per capita stays at 2007 levels. Source: 2009 Statistical Abstract. 42

Environmental degradation has reached alarming proportions in parts of Uganda 43 The country’s forests are under tremendous pressure, with wood harvesting for fuel and timber and the clearance of agriculture and human settlement being some of the primary causes. USAID

Wood fuel consumption, Source:PEAP (2004/5-2007/8), p

Economy K. Burns / USAID © 2005 Leila Darabi, Courtesy of Photoshare © 2006 Walter Wafula/ Daily Monitor, Courtesy of Photoshare K. Burns / USAID

GDP growth rate, Source: 2009 Statistical Abstract

47 GDP per capita (Assumes 7 % annual economic growth rate) Middle-income status

48 GDP per capita (Assumes 6 % annual economic growth rate) Middle-income status

49 GDP per capita (Assumes 10 % annual economic growth rate) Middle-income status

Annual New Job Requirements,

Urbanisation 51

Urban population,

53 Rapid growth puts increasing pressure on urban infrastructure. Credit: © 2005 Richard Niyonzima, Courtesy of Photoshare Caption: A river of refuse and waste passes through a congested slum in Namuwongo, Kampala City, Uganda. Ninety percent of the Kampala population lives in slums like this one, risking contracting diseases like dysentery and cholera.

Required new urban housing units, ,324,724 2,775,910

Contraceptive Use 55 Modern contraceptive prevalence rate is 17.9 percent of married women of reproductive age. Credit: © 2006 Alfredo L. Fort, Courtesy of Photoshare Caption: Clients wait for services in a family planning/maternal health clinic in Mukono, Uganda Source: UDHS, 2006

Comparative modern contraceptive prevalence rate 56 Zimbabwe (2005/06) – 58.4 Kenya (2003) – 31.5% Malawi (2004) – 28.2% Zambia (2007) – 26.5% Tanzania (2004/05)) – 20.0% Uganda (2006) – 17.9%

A very large unmet need for family planning already exists % of married women want to space or limit births but are not using contraceptives 57

Unmet need for family planning 58

59 To satisfy unmet need, a realistic strategy is to ensure that all Ugandan couples who want to space or limit their births have access to quality reproductive health services, including a full range of RH commodities consistently available at affordable prices. © Dylan Walters

If Uganda moves toward satisfying current unmet need by 2025, it will be on track to achieve a fertility transition in a generation... 60

What we need is….  Sustained commitment and support from leaders at national and district levels  Improved quality and access to affordable services  Increased private sector/NGO participation  Contraceptive security  Improved district management  Expanded IEC  Sustained donor support 61