Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates : Indur M. Goklany Independent Scholar Fourth International Climate Change Conference Chicago, IL May 16–18, 2010

Organization of Talk Empirical data – Excess winter deaths – Extreme events – Malaria – Hunger, cereal yields, cereal production – Life expectancy Ranking GW among other global health risks Potential death & disease in developing countries from biofuel production 2

Empirical Data 3

Mortality by Month, Various Industrialized Countries Source: Falagas et al. (2009) 4

Excess Winter Deaths, Various Developed Countries CountryExcess Winter DeathsBasis US108, Canada5, UK36,70012/ /2009 Australia6, New Zealand1, Japan50, France24, excluding 2004 Italy37, Spain23, , Sweden4, Greece5, Cyprus , , Sources: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009); CANSIM (2009); UKONS (2009); Falagas et al. (2009) 5

Excess Winter Deaths, England & Wales 1950/ /08 Source: UKONS (2009) 6

Shrinkage of the distribution of malaria Top: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945 Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007 Source: WHO (2008). 7

Chronic hunger in the developing world, 1 969–2009 (% of population) Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity

Cereal Yields and Production, 1961–2008 Least Developed Countries & World Source: FAO (2010) 9

Reasons for the increase of hunger according to FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009 The food price crisis The global economic slowdown Insufficient investment in agriculture The increase is not a result of poor crop harvest Source: policybriefs/multimedia0/presentation-the-state-of-food- insecurity/en/ 10

Global Life Expectancy. Economic Development, and CO 2 Emissions, 1760–2007 Source: Goklany (2010) 11

Ranking Global Warming Among Global Health Risks 12

Global Health Priorities — 2004 Data Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009) 13

Potential Death & Disease in Developing Countries From Biofuel Production 14

Identifying Diseases of Poverty — 2004 Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009) Ratio of Low Income to Lower Middle Income Deaths per capitaDisease Burden per capita 1 Global climate change Underweight Zinc deficiency Vitamin A deficiency Unsafe sex Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene Unmet contraceptive need Indoor smoke from solid fuels Sub-optimal breastfeeding Iron deficiency Child sexual abuse Lead exposure High cholesterol High blood glucose Unsafe health care injections Physical inactivity Illicit drug use Low fruit and vegetable intake Occupational risks High blood pressure Urban outdoor air pollution Alcohol use Tobacco use Overweight and obesity

Death & Disease From Diseases of Poverty — 2004 Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009) Risk FactorLost DALYs (000s)Deaths (000s) IndustrialDevelopingIndustrialDeveloping 1 Global climate change 35, Underweight 7790,60602,225 3 Zinc deficiency 315, Vitamin A deficiency 122, Unsafe sex 1,08168,937442,311 6 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene 17464,06671,901 Sub-Total (1 through 6) 1,340266,684517,662 7 Unmet contraceptive need 17 11, Indoor smoke from solid fuels 6 41, ,964 9 Sub-optimal breastfeeding , , Iron deficiency , Sub-Total (1 through 10) 2,262381, ,294 16

Death & Disease in Developing Countries per Million People in Extreme Poverty Poverty Headcount (millions) ThresholdCommentSource OldChen & Ravallion (2007) ,454*New* New = 1.5 x OldChen & Ravallion (2008) In 2004 due to 6 diseases of poverty, according to WHO (2009) Death & disease rate per million living in extreme poverty 7.7 million deaths5,270 deaths per million 267 million lost DALYs183,000 lost DALYs per million 17

Death & Disease in Developing Countries in 2010 Due to Biofuel Production Poverty Headcount (millions) CommentSource 20051,374 Differences due to country coverage WB Global Economic Prospects (2009) 20051,208 De Hoyos & Medvedev (2009) No biofuel production, Drop due to economic growth D&M (2009) Increase due to biofuel production D&M (2009) Increase in Deaths = 192,000 Increase in Burden of Disease = 6.7 million 18

Potential Death & Disease due to Biofuel Production and Global Warming DeathsBurden of Disease Biofuel Production (2010) Global Warming (2004) Biofuel Production (2010) Global Warming (2004) 192,000141, million5.4 million 19

Findings  In developed world, more people die in winter, but trend is downward due to greater wealth and fuel affordability  Deaths and death rates from extreme weather events, malaria, hunger, and other climate sensitive health risks have declined over the long term  Mortality Rates Life Expectancies  GW ranks below the top 20 global health problems today, and will advance only if these other risks are solved first  Death and disease from biofuel production more likely to be real than those estimated due to GW  Increased death and disease from biofuel production most likely exceeds any reductions from reduced GW 20

Conclusions  GW or its underlying human causes (if any) have not increased death and disease in the aggregate.  In fact, they are probably responsible for the worldwide decreases in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy over the last century.  GW policies may already have killed more than they have saved  And may kill even more if they reduce energy use prematurely and/or economic development, particularly for the less well-off 21

22 THE END Supplemental slides follow

Daily Mortality by Month U.S.A., Source: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009) 23

Daily Mortality by Month Canada, Source: Goklany (2009a) based on CANSIM (2009) 24

Global Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900–2008 Source: Goklany (2009b) 25

Chronic hunger, Worldwide 1969/71–2008/09 Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity

US Life Expectancy, CO 2 Emissions, Consumption and Economic Development, 1900–2006 Source: Goklany (2010) 27

Contribution of Global Warming to Mortality from Hunger, Malaria & Flooding, 2085 Source: Goklany (2009b) 28