Best Practice Precepts [... next] Arguments Arguments Possibility of the Impossible Possibility of the Impossible Belief, Truth, and Reality Belief, Truth, and Reality Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence Scientific Thinking Scientific Thinking Bias Bias

Arguments - 1 A. Itemize opinions from all relevant sides of an issue and collect logical arguments supporting each. B. Break the arguments into their constituent statements and draw out various additional implications from these statements. C. Examine these statements and implications for internal contradictions.

Arguments - 2 D. Locate opposing claims between the various arguments and assign relative weightings to opposing claims: –Increase the weighting when the claims have strong support, especially distinct chains of reasoning or different news sources, decrease the weighting when the claims have contradictions. –...

Arguments - 3 –Adjust weighting depending on relevance of information to central issue. –Require sufficient support to justify any incredible claims. –Otherwise, ignore these claims when forming a judgment. E. Assess the weights of the various claims.

Arguments - 4 F. Once we have identified an argument, we identify keywords or phrases within its reasoning, that might have alternative well-defined meanings. G. We determine whether or not the author explicitly uses one of those definitions. If not, and one of them changes our acceptance of the conclusion, then an ambiguity has been identified. H. This is an important step in accepting or not some conclusion.

Possibility of the Impossible - 1 A. Just because something is logically possible doesn’t mean that it’s real. B. Just because a claim hasn’t been conclusively refuted doesn’t mean that it’s true. C. Just because a claim hasn’t been conclusively proven doesn’t mean that it’s false.

Possibility of the Impossible - 2 D. Just because something seems physically impossible doesn’t mean that it is. E. Just because something is physically possible doesn’t mean that it’s real. F. One can’t believe impossible things. G. We have to live today by what truth we can get today, and be ready tomorrow to call it falsehood.

Belief, Truth, and Reality - 1 A. Just because you believe that something is true doesn’t mean that it is. B. Just because a group of people believe that something is true doesn’t mean that it is. C. There is such a thing as objective truth.

Belief, Truth, and Reality - 2 D. Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. E. Truth is something we can attempt to doubt, and then perhaps, after much exertion, discover that part of the doubt is unjustified.

Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence - 1 A. We are justified in believing a proposition when we have no good reason to doubt it. B. There is good reason to doubt a proposition if it conflicts with other propositions we have good reason to believe. C. The more background information a proposition conflicts with, the more reason there is to doubt it.

Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence - 2 D. When there is good reason to doubt a proposition, we should proportion our belief to the evidence. E. There is good reason to doubt a proposition if it conflicts with expert opinion. F. Just because someone is an expert in one field doesn’t mean that he is an expert in another.

Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence - 3 G. If we have no reason to doubt what’s disclosed to us through perception, introspection, memory, or reason, then we’re justified in believing it. H. To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection.

Scientific Thinking - 1 A. It is not what the man of science believes that distinguishes him, but how and why he believes it. B. A hypothesis is scientific only if it is testable, that is, only if it predicts something other than what it was introduced to explain. A hypothesis should state the test conditions that could render it false – falsifiability.

Scientific Thinking - 2 C. Other things being equal, the best hypothesis is the one that is the most fruitful, that is, makes the most novel predictions. D. Other things being equal, the best hypothesis is the one that has the greatest scope, that is, that explains and predicts the most diverse phenomena.

Scientific Thinking - 3 E. Other things being equal, the best hypothesis is the simplest one, that is, the one that makes the fewest assumptions. F. Other things being equal, the best hypothesis is the most conservative, that is, the one that fits best with established beliefs.

Scientific Thinking - 4 G. We should accept an extraordinary hypothesis only if no ordinary one will do. H. When two or more hypotheses compete, we should make a new observation, the result of which shall eliminate some of them.