THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.
Hello 14 Thousand !
The Broad Market Play Min 0:00-4:00, 6:00-8:00 Airtime: Wed 14 Mar 12 | 10:38 AM ET
Financial Position in Best Shape in 3 Decades Capital hasn’t been this high as a % of assets since 1938 Liquidity at highest levels in 35 years
Earnings Up Balance Sheets Strong Psychological Issues Driving Stocks down are dissipating
A simulation technique used on asset and liability portfolios to determine their reactions to different financial situations. Stress tests are also used to gauge how certain stressors will affect a company or industry. They are usually computer-generated simulation models that test hypothetical scenarios. Changing factors could include interest rates, lending requirements or unemployment
Stress Test News
Fed Bank Stress Test Play to min 3:30
Banks with mortgage banking are currently more profitable. Standard Banks are going to be hurt with a flat yield curve. Stress Test more rigorous, but designed to be passed Reasons to buy the banks 1) They’ve passed the stress test 2) Raising Dividends 3) Optimistic first quarter earnings
Engine of the economy Facilitate the process of economic development Must have lending in order to have sustainable economic growth Financials reflect the health of the economy
BAC JPM C WFC
U.S. largest retail bank, home lender, and investment bank Acquired Merrill for $50 billion in ’09 Warren Buffet bought $5 Billion in shares of BAC last August Currently seeing resistance at $10 share price
Largest U.S. bank by market capitalization Bought Bear Sterns & Washington Mutual in ’08 Strongest balance sheet, “Best in Breed” Increased dividend by $0.05 to $0.35/share starting April 30 th 2012
Largest international banking exposure U.S. gov’t took a 36% stake in Citi worth $25 billion in ’09 Citi returned back to private ownership in late ’10 Failed stress test on March 13 th 2012
Large retail banking and home lending business Small investment banking business compared BAC, JPM, and Citi Bought Wachovia in ’08 – to expand east Increased earnings over 25% for FY2011
GS MS JEF
Consistently put in media spotlight for putting performance ahead of ethics Up over 37% YTD vs. S&P500 up 12% Due to diminished profits from employee growth, downsizing is a possibility
UBS BCS DB
European Investment Bank headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany DB was one of the major drivers to collateralized debt obligations (CDO), a major catalyst of the housing bubble
RY TD BNS
Dividend yield of almost 4% Sold RBC Bank (USA) subsidiary to PNC in June of 2011 Announced in March their wealth management division plans to acquire Coutts creating emerging markets exposure
U.S. banks in strongest position to take over the housing market When economy recovers, credit is needed, it will have to come from banks They will earn a lot in this position Banks have the capital and balance sheets to handle it
FAS/FAZ XLF XLV- SPDR Health Care
Home Depot (HD) TJ Max (TJX)