PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS Prof.Dr.M.Irfan Islamy,MPA FIA Unibraw 2007

Policy analysis has been defined as : # Walter Williams ( 1971 ) “ a means of synthesizing information including research results to produce a format for policy decisions ( the laying out of alternative choices ) and of determining future needs for policy-relevant information “ # Jacob B.Ukeles ( 1977 ) “ the systematic investigation of alternative policy options and the assembly and integration of the evidence for and against each option. It involves a problem-solving approach , the collection and interpretation of information , and some attempt to predict the consequences of alternative courses of action”

Type of Policy Analysis 1. Anticipatory / Ex-ante/ Pre-hoc/ Prospective Analysis Policy analysis that focuses upon the possible outcomes of proposed policies and prior to the implementation of policies. This analysis can be conducted to anticipate the results of alternative policies in order to choose among them or to describe the consequences of a policy. 1.1 Predictive analysis : refers to the projection of future states resulting from adopting particular alternatives 1.2 Prescriptive analysis : refers to analysis which recommends actions because they will bring about a particular result. Descriptive / Ex-post / Post-hoc / Retrospective Analysis Policy analysis that refers to either the historical analysis of past policies or the evaluation of a new policy as it is implemented. 2.1 Retrospective analysis : referring to the description and inter-pretation of past policies ( What happened ? ) 2.2 Evaluative analysis : referring to program evaluation ( Where the purposes of the policy met ? )

The Role of The Analyst They tipically work on remedies to specific problems for immediate application They want to work on interest problems, to apply their technical know-ledge , to be useful, to make an impact , to make a decent income doing something the find enjoyable , and to near power or possibly to have power Arnold J.Meltsner ( 1976 ) classifies policy analyst as : The Technician : is a researcher with excellent analytical skills but few political skills The Politician : is the analyst-turned-bureaucrat striving for personal advancement who is more attuned to politics than analysis The Entrepreneur : is highly skilled both analytically and politically

The Analytic Process Policy analysis has been characterized as art, craft, and compromise, activities that depend to a large extent on the skill, judgment, and intuition of the analyst # E.S. Quade ( 1982 ) 1. Problem formulation 2. Searching for alternatives, 3. Forcasting the future environment 4. Modelling the impacts of alternatives 5. Evaluating ( comparing and ranking ) the alternatives # D.MacRae & J.A.Wilde ( 1979 ) 1. Definition of the problem 2. Determining the criteria for making a choice among alternatives 3. Generating a range of alternative policies 4. Choosing a course of action that will cause the policy option to be implemented 5. Evaluating the policy after it is in effect

# E. Stokey & R. Zeckhauser ( 1978 ) 1 # E.Stokey & R.Zeckhauser ( 1978 ) 1. Determine the underlying problem and objective to be pursued 2. Lay out possible alternative courses of action 3. Predict the consequences of each alternative 4. Determine the criteria for measuring the achievement of alternatives 5. Indicate the preferred choice of action # C.V.Patton & D.S.Sawicki ( 1986 ) 1. Problem definition 2. Determination of evaluation criteria 3. Identification of alternatives 4. Evaluation of alternatives 5. Comparison of alternatives 6. Assessment of outcomes

Establish Evaluation Criteria Monitor Policy Outcomes Verify, Define, and Detail the Problem Establish Evaluation Criteria Monitor Policy Outcomes Identify Alternative Policies Display and Select Among Alternative Policies Evaluate Alternative Policies

# Step One : Verify, Define, and Detail the Problem - Many angles that have to be considered and the conflicting nature of possible solutions - Don’t accept the initial problem statement without question. It may be only the tip of the iceberg, a part of a larger problem, or one that cannot be influenced by the client or decision maker - Since conditions change, ask whether the problem still exists - Redefine the problem during analysis as it changes form or takes on new dimensions - State the problem meaningfully, to eliminate irrelevant material, to say it with numbers, to focus on the central, critical factors, and to define the problrm in a way that eliminate ambiguity # Step Two : Establish Evaluation Criteria - In order to compare, measure, and select among alternatives, relevant evaluation criteria must be established - Some commonly used measures include : Cost, Net Benefit, Effectiveness, Efficiency, Equity, Administrative Ease, Legality, and Political Acceptability

Commonly Employed Evaluation Criteria Categories of Criteria Specific Objective 1. TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY Measuring whether policy or program outcomes achieve their purpose. They address the basic question of whether the alternative will work in a technical sense. Although this criterion appears straightforward, evaluating it is often a complex process. Whenever human behavior is involved we are never absolutely sure that a policy or program will have its intended effects. 2. ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL POSSIBILITY Measuring what the programs cost and what they produce for bene-fits ( direct / indirect ; short/long term ; quantifiable or not ). They can have mostly fiscal implication for the client ---- that is , impacts felt on profit and losses for private clients and revenue or debt for public clients. The policies can have mostly economic implications for the client ( of the geographic area ). 3. POLITICAL VIABILITY Measuring policy or program outcomes in terms of impact on relevant power groups such as decision makers, legislators, administrators, citizen coalitions, neighborhood groups, unions, and other political alliances. The central question is whether one or more alternatives will be acceptable or can be made acceptable to the relevant groups. Measurements in this category are often subjective and less quantifiable. 4. ADMINISTRATIVE OPERABILITY Measuring how possible it is to actually implement the proposed policy or program within the political , social and most important administrative context. Is the staffing availbale ? Will public employees cooperate in delivering the service ? Do we have the physical facilities necessary ? Can it be done on time ?

# Step Three : Identify Alternative Policies - Analyst should have an understanding of the values, goals, and objec-tives not only of the client but also of other involved parties - During the problem identification stage similar problems elsewhere may have been located, and the solutions tried in those locales can be consi-dered - Variations and combinations of alternatives are also possible, and the details of each option would have to be specified - Alternatives can also be identified through research analysis and experi-ments , through brainstorming techniques, and by writing scenarios # Step Four : Evaluate Alternative Policies - The nature of the problem and the types of evaluation criteria will suggest the methods that can be used to evaluate the policies - Some problems will call for quantitative analysis, others will require qualitative analysis, and most problems require both - A citizen survey might be used to gauge support for various options

# Step Five : Display and Select Among Alternative Policies - The result of the evaluation might be displayed in a number of ways : matrices can be used as a format for comparisons, to provide a quick visual means of highlighting pros and cons - Some clients prefer that the analyst present a strong argument for the superior option # Step Six : Monitor Policy Outcomes - There may be some doubt whether the problem was resolved appropriately and even whether the selected policy is being implemented properly - These concerns require that policies and programs be maintained and monitored during implementation to assure that they do not change form unintentionally, to measure the impact they are having, to determine whether they are having the impact intended, and to decide whether they should be continued, modified, or terminated