November 20, 2014 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard A Status Report California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board

Agenda Quick review of the LCFS Compliance to date LCFS credit market Lawsuits Proposed re-adoption Future outlook 22

LCFS Key Objective Reduce carbon intensity of transportation fuel pool by at least 10% by 2020 Expected benefits: −(~16 MMT CO 2 e reduced in 2020) −Transform and diversify the state’s fuel supply −Enhance energy independence/security 33

LCFS Accounting System Straightforward 4 Fuels above standard generate deficits Fuels below standard generate credits 4

Carbon Intensities of Some Fuels Gasoline gCO 2 e/MJ Diesel gCO 2 e/MJ Corn Ethanol gCO 2 e/MJ Sugarcane Ethanol45 – 59 gCO 2 e/MJ Biodiesel4 – 48 gCO 2 e/MJ Methane~0 – 99.6 gCO 2 e/MJ Electricity35 – 46 gCO 2 e/MJ 5

LCFS Credits and Deficits 6

LCFS Credits Source of Credits through Quarter 2 of

What Have We Seen Already at 1%? Ethanol CI values continue to decrease –200 MM gal/yr low-CI ethanol Renewable diesel production is increasing –200 MM gal/yr biodiesel and renewable diesel Renewable natural gas production is increasing and moving toward transportation use –150MM DGE/yr CNG & LNG New fuel pathway applications for lower CIs still pouring in 8

LCFS Lawsuits Federal: 9 th Circuit Court of Appeals −Rejected several constitutional claims −Returned case to district court for additional determinations −U.S. Supreme Court denied plaintiffs’ request for review State: 5th District Court of Appeal −Found procedural issues with CEQA and APA −Rejected plaintiff’s request to invalidate LCFS −Allowed ARB to enforce program at 2013 standards (1.0% CI reduction) while addressing Court’s concerns −The Board will consider an alternative diesel fuel (ADF) regulation and a re-proposed LCFS in February

2015 LCFS Proposed Re-Adoption Developing a package of proposed amendments to improve the LCFS Per Board’s direction on many amendments To be responsive to stakeholder feedback For clarity and enhancement of the regulation Lessons from four years of implementation Not to fix a broken program 10

Developing Amendments to Improve LCFS Preserve basic flexible framework of current LCFS Compliance – Revise post-2015 compliance curves to 10%/2020; include cost-containment mechanism Crude/Refinery – Amend some crude oil provisions; recognize GHG reductions at refineries; address low- complexity/low-energy-use refineries Enforceability – Streamline fuel pathway analyses; Enhance and clarify enforceability Additional – Update indirect land use change values and supporting models; recognize additional electricity credits: mass transit & forklifts 11

Potential Compliance Curves 12

Fuel Volumes for Diesel Standard (Illustrative - Straight Line) BiofuelUnits 12 mos Soy Biodiesel mm gal Waste Grease Biodiesel mm gal Corn Oil Biodiesel mm gal Tallow Biodiesel mm gal510 Canola Biodiesel mm gal Renewable diesel mm gal Natural Gas mm DGE Renewable Natural Gas mm DGE Electricity (HDV/Rail) 1000 MWH00894 Diesel Demand bill. gal

Low-CI Biofuels 2016 – 2020 (Illustrative) (70) (45) (35) (15) (35) (30) (75) 14

2020 Credits from Low-CI Fuels (Illustrative) 15

LCFS Makes Low-CI Fuels Attractive LCFS provides real value for low-CI fuels Higher credit value will encourage needed infrastructure to get low-CI fuels to CA LCFS will encourage production of low-CI fuels LCFS programs along Pacific Coast will encourage additional production of low-CI fuels 16