NCCARF 2014 Steve George.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in the Pacific Islands

Advertisements

PRESENTS: FORECASTING FOR OPERATIONS AND DESIGN February 16 th 2011 – Aberdeen.

An Initial Assessment of the Impacts of Sea Level Rise to the California Coast Dr. David Revell and Bob Battalio, P.E. Matt Heberger, P.E., Dr. Peter Gleick,

Adaptation Action Areas Jim Murley South Florida Regional Planning Council AAA Workshop, August 28, 2014.

William Solecki City University of New York – Hunter College

Welcome to the Bay of Fundy MCCAP Workshop. 1.What question about your MCCAP do you most want to gain clarity about today? 2. What municipal decisions.

Tina Neale Climate Action Secretariat Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference October 25, 2011 Raising Dikes and Rolling Back: Coping with sea.

COASTANCE Komotini 27 March 2012 Coastal Flooding phenomena in the Region of Eastern Macedonia Thrace (REMTH) in relation to Climate Change Nikos Kotsovinos.

Comparison of Wave Climate Analysis Techniques in Sheltered Waters May 19, 2011 Tim Hillier, P.E., CFM Associate Lauren Klonsky Water Resources Engineer.

Nicosia Τ Ο U Μ Α Ζ I S Adaptation of Coastal Built Environment Due to Climate Change Dr Antonis Toumazis Dion. Toumazis & Associates Architects.

1 Preparing Washington for a Changing Climate An Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy Department of Ecology Hedia Adelsman, Executive Policy Advisor.

Coastal Regions and Land Loss Chapter 10. Morris Island Lighthouse, SC.

US Army Corps of Engineers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory - ERDC U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Coastal Processes Modeling for the Alaskan Coast By Bruce.

Where IOOS Meets the Land and Atmosphere: Assessing/Mitigating Risks of Current & Prospective Coastal Inundation/Erosion Alaskan Coastal Climatology Workshop.

SEA LEVEL RISE: A California Perspective Julie Thomas Coastal Data Information Program Southern California Ocean Observing System Scripps Institution of.

Measuring Sea Level Change

Climate Observations and Coastal Climate Services: Providing Decision-Makers With What They Need NOAA Ocean Climate Observation 7 th Annual System Review.

Flooding in New York City 30 October Current Conditions.

Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiji and the Cook Islands (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted.

Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted by: Pacific Centre for Sustainable.

Coastal Zones and Processes

EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 From offshore wave to coastal erosion and overtopping Nicolas Chini 1, Lucy Bricheno 2, Chris Wilson 2,

Sea Level Rise & Implication for Harbors and Marinas Ronald M. Noble.

FEMA’s Coastal Mapping and Management Process. 2 2 Welcome  Background and Coastal study methodologies  Technical Opportunities  Management Opportunities.

Office of Coast Survey NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap: a Pathway to Improved Products and Services Jesse C. Feyen Storm Surge Roadmap Portfolio Manager.

Using Partnerships to Meet NOAA’s Needs for its Next Generation Storm Surge System NOS/OCS/CSDL J. Feyen F. Aikman M. Erickson NWS/NCEP/EMC H. Tolman NWS/OST/MDL.

Part of the Comprehensive Coastal Resource Management Portal Center for Coastal Resources Management Molly Mitchell Sept 2014 Hampton Roads Adaptation.

Source: Vulnerability to Climate Change of Australia’s Coastal Zone: Analysis of gaps in methods, data and system thresholds (Ed; M. Voice, N. Harvey and.

Assessing the Impact of Sea Level Rise on Representative Military Installations in the Southwestern US Dr. Bart Chadwick SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific.

Building the Digital Coast. Priority Coastal Issues Land use planning (growth management) Coastal conservation Hazards (flooding/inundation/storm surge)

Sea-level changes and their impacts on critical infrastructure in South Tarawa Doug Ramsay, Scott Stephens & Rob Bell, NIWA Kabure Yeeting, Mike Foon,

Steve George. Likelihood of flooding What has been done previously? Find your nearest decent tide- gauge (what’s happened.

Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves Session Chair: Philip Woodworth and Jason Lowe Rapporteur: Kathleen McInnes Philip Woodworth, “Evidence.

Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting LTJG Jeffrey Pereira, NOAA Storm Surge Unit National Hurricane Center NOAA Storm Surge Workshop May 2011 LTJG Jeffrey.

Climate change and sediment budgets? Jaak Monbaliu Albin Ullmann.

Local Response to Climate Change: Swinomish Case Study Swinomish Indian Tribal Community.

Mark N. Mauriello NJAFM Past Chair. COASTAL STORM HAZARD VULNERABILITY FACTORS SEA LEVEL RISE EXPANDING FLOOD HAZARD AREAS INCREASING FLOOD HEIGHTS NEGATIVE.

Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Galveston Bay Area Using InVEST Models Greg Guannel, Jorge Brenner, Joe Faries, Anne Guerry, Jennifer Proft, Jess Silver,

John Haines USGS Coastal (Climate) Change Activities

Los Angeles District Los Angeles District 86 th CERB 3-4 June 2009 Los Angeles District Activities and Data Utilization Arthur T. Shak, SPL Navigation.

Evidence. Carbon Dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii Global surface temperature.

San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission The Adapting to Rising Tides Project.

Using GIS to Compare East Coast United States and South East Asia.

4 to 6-May-2011 Waikiki Beach Mariott Resort and Spa Honolulu, Hawaii Hydrographic Products and Services in support of Climate Services in the Pacific.

Sustainable/Resilient Communities in Monmouth County September 10, 2008 Sea Level Rise & Coastal Resiliency Jon K. Miller 1 & Thomas O. Herrington 2 1.

Land Subject to Coastal Storm Flowage Rebecca Haney Coastal Geologist Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management.

Explorers Education Programme: Flooding & Coastal Communities.

Maryland’s Coastal Resiliency Assessment Nicole Carlozo, MD DNR October 14, 2015 Good afternoon. I’m here today to provide some information on Maryland’s.

Sea Level Changes: Implications for the Coast RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato.

Hazards Profile. Objective: To identify key hazards issues and priorities Identify information gaps to address these concerns.

Storminess and Extreme Coastal Water Levels: Historical Observations and Future Projections for the California Coast Patrick Barnard USGS Coastal and Marine.

Beaches. Beach Profile A beach environment consists of several zones.

Coast: Area of contact between land and sea—Extend inland until meets a different geographical setting Coastline follows the general line of.

Climate Change Threat Sea-Level Rise 1. Potential Impacts from Sea-Level Rise How might our community be impacted by sea-level rise? 2.

Coastal development and climate change in SA

CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and CALIFORNIA’S COAST Gary Griggs Director Institute of Marine Sciences University of California Santa Cruz.

Illustrating NOAA’s Geospatial Role in Resilient Coastal Zones Joseph Klimavicz, NOAA CIO and Director of High Performance Computing and Communications.

Forecast effects of accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) on the habitat of Atlantic Coast piping plovers and identify responsive conservation strategies Partnership.

The Seawall Road. April 17, 2007 Terms Used Setup + Swash = R 2.

Matarangi south Dr Willem de Lange.

DESIGN VARIATIONS Special Council Meeting May 8, 2017

Enhancement of Wind Stress and Hurricane Waves Simulation

Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Galveston Bay Area Using InVEST Models Greg Guannel, Jorge Brenner, Joe Faries, Anne Guerry, Jennifer Proft, Jess Silver,

Climate Change: Locally or internationally constructed?

Wave cut platforms.

Shuyi S. Chen and Wei Zhao Cheryl Ann Blain

Update on Great Lakes Coastal Methodology

Future Inundation Frequency of Coastal Critical Facilities

Shoreline Processes and Features Outline

Presentation transcript:

NCCARF 2014 Steve George

Canute: The Sea Level Calculator Online Decision Support Tool Impact of (varying) sea-level on the coastal environment. Geographical quantification of: Storm surge (floods) Soft shoreline recession Wave activity

Canute: The Sea Level Calculator Online Decision Support Tool Impact of (varying) sea-level on the coastal environment. Geographical quantification of: Storm surge (floods) Soft shoreline recession Wave activity (others not discussed, or in development) Steady climate variability Additional impacts due to climate change

Canute Output Storm Surge

Storm Surge: Likelihood of flooding What has been done previously? Find your nearest decent tide- gauge (what’s happened previously) Fit a distribution to the extremes & extrapolate Calculate risk you are willing to take. e.g. Melbourne Water requires that any new development is protected in the 1 in 100 year flood event.

Storm Surge: What of the future? Sea-level is rising, so can no longer just look to the past for what will happen in the future. One options is to choose an arbitrarily large height (above which you are allowed to build) This can be expensive, and prevents a planner from performing a comprehensive risk analysis. Alternatively, provide a localised calculation of flood likelihood. Uncertainty in past Uncertainty in future

Canute Output: Storm Surge

AEP vs. ARI ARI (years)AEP

Canute Output: Storm Surge Number of Events The EP gives the probability of one or more events. The expected number of events at a certain level is possibly more relevant: Recent Addition

Canute Output Coastal Setbacks

Canute Output: Coastal Setback How far back from the sea should I build my beach house? S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion (storm demand) S2: Allowance for ongoing underlying recession S3: Allowance for recession due to future sea level rise (SLR) S4: Allowance for beach rotation S5: Allowance for dune stability

Canute Output: Coastal Setback How far back from the sea should I build my beach house? S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion (storm demand) S2: Allowance for ongoing underlying recession S3: Allowance for recession due to future sea level rise (SLR) S4: Allowance for beach rotation S5: Allowance for dune stability

Canute Output: Coastal Setback Beach Modelling Results of Modelling by Water Research Laboratory Forced by storm surge high water levels (tide gauge), and significant wave height(CSIRO) Regionally specific Regionally specific beach types modelled under localised storm-surge conditions

Coming soon: S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion S5: Allowance for dune stability Coming soon: S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion S5: Allowance for dune stability

Canute Output Wave Activity

Canute Output: Wave Activity Sea-level is more than just the still-water level Wave setup is the superelevation of mean water level caused by wave action (total water depth being the sum of still-water depth and wave setup). Wave runup is the maximum elevation of wave uprush above still- water level: it is the sum of the setup and incident wave runup.

Canute Output: Wave Activity Present day variability: developing tool First version required user to provide location specific data on offshore wave climatology (e.g., from sparse network of Waverider buoys). Latest version provides full coverage around the Australian coast by utilising results from NOAA WAVEWATCH III ocean wave model. Development system has access to assorted model datasets (e.g., ECMWF and CSIRO wave data). Future system will incorporate results from XBeach modelling.

Canute...and finally

Canute: The Sea Level Calculator Online Decision Support Tool Impact of (varying) sea-level on the coastal environment. Geographical quantification of: Storm surge (floods) Soft shoreline recession Wave activity (others not discussed, or in development) Steady climate variability Additional impacts due to climate change

Canute: Usage Users who have completed the training