1 Climate Prediction Center Embracing the Future CPC Management Team, 32 nd CDPW, Tallahassee, FL, 22 October, 2007

2 Message NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: –Observations –Models and Assimilation Systems –Computing Support –Products and Forecast Services CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base. Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges: –CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ., RISAs, others New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research  Operations Operations  Research.

3 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services… IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Feedback Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies… To develop an appreciation for the full delivery of service, the path must be viewed in a larger context as an end-to-end forecast process NCEP CPC

4 Climate Mission Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years Official products for the U.S. Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products “CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.” 2007/08

5 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 3 NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation The NCEP Centers span Seamless Suite

6 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation NCEPs model production suite provides guidance for climate prediction

7 Performance Goals Exceeded official GPRA goal for US Seasonal Temperature Forecast skill Unprecedented & sustained increases in skill during weak ENSO Transition Activities CTB Grants Program: FY07 AO ($580K– 4 projects); FY08 AO ($1.1M) New & Improved Climate Products Monitoring – stormtracks, monsoons, oceans, drought; GIS-conversion Assessments – Climate Diagnostics Bulletin; Hazards (U.S., Africa, Tropics) Outlooks – NAEFS week-2 for T; consolidation tool; objective verification tool Outreach NOAA - 4 press conferences & 8 web articles (outlooks) –El Niño – some impacts (e.g. fewer Atl Hurricanes in 2006); Lead role in NAME (e.g. May Issue of J. Clim. on NAME - 22 articles) Host/train international visitors—African Desk (6); Asia bi-laterals(3) FY07 Highlights - CPC

8 CPC has improved the skill of its official seasonal outlooks, in part, by using more objective techniques (e.g. consolidation tool). [O’Lenic et al. 2007]. U.S. Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill (0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal)(0.5 Month Lead) There is a regime dependence of skill depending on the influence of the major climate factors, including ENSO and trend. Note decrease in variability last 1-2 years.

Storm Track Monitoring Products  Global coverage (NH, SH, Alaska)  WX-CX linkage: Overlays of stormtracks, precipitation, low-level wind anomalies, wave heights, and sea ice  Monitoring products (10, 30, 90 days)  Forecast products (operational and ensemble mean GFS; week 1 & 2)  Collaboration with EMC & OPC

10 Monsoon Monitoring Products  Global and Regional Monsoons (Asian, American, African..)  Overlays of many fields (SST, soil moisture, winds, temperature, precip)  Monitoring products (7, 30, 90 days)  Weekly updates to US and Global Hazards forecasters and monthly updates for Monthly Climate Review

11 Ocean Monitoring Products  Climatology, monthly, pentad plots and animations  SST, Sea level, heat content, depth 20C, surface wind stress animations & 30 day averages

12

13 Fig 2. The average size of the Ozone Hole during Oct-Nov 2006 was larger than any previous year back to Fig. 1. The Antarctic Ozone Hole during 2007 is smaller compared to the near record size during Stratospheric Monitoring Products

14 Monitoring (GIS Format) GIS: Geographical Information System A popular format that allows meteorological fields to be superposed over topography, rivers, roads, and cities. GIS format is preferred by many users. CPC is working with NCO to convert its monitoring and outlook products

15 Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Electronic (PDF): b&w, color Improved graphics Expanded suite of products  ocean products based on GODAS;  intraseasonal monitoring based on CDAS & GDAS

16 Climate Test Bed NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

17 NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations –Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research & operational service applications –Embracing the R2O and O2R paradigms The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities –CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) –Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) –Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) Competitive Grants Program CTB-COLA Seminar Series CPC-RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

18 NCEP Climate Support: Coupled Climate Forecast System 1.Current Operational CFS Implemented in August 2004 Frozen system Reforecast data base (1981-present) Twice daily runs (60/month) 2.Next generation CFS estimated completion January 2010 Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-cryosphere model improvements ODA (MOM3  MOM4); Land surface (NOAH); Atmospheric model; ESMF based CFS reanalysis (1979-present) CFS reforecasts (1981-present) CFS is a National Model for your use

19 Growth of CTB –Additional infrastructure (human and computing) for growing grants program –O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training Multi-Model Ensembles –Lack of a national strategy and CONOPS; –MOUs for exchange of operational data International Activities (CPC) –Meet increasing requests –vs – limited budget –Global climate training facility –Increase visibility Strategic Issues

20 Future Challenges Climate –Warming trend –Abrupt changes and regime shifts –Natural variability (annual cycle, El Niño, monsoons, MJO, AO) –Extremes (heat waves, storms, droughts) Goal: Align infrastructure & establish partnerships to achieve mission goals focused on these challenges!

21 CPC Strategy (0-2 yr) Strategic Challenges Improve products Improve models Meet National / International commitments Address Challenges Product alignment (quality, consistency, reliability) –Inventory –ENSO composites –Verification of official forecasts & tools –Precipitation analyses & related products –Coordination of drought, monsoon briefings with operations Next generation CFS (with EMC) –CFS Reanalysis and Reforecasting Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (w EMC) –SI Forecast skill Agency support (e.g. USDA; USAID) Project support (e.g. AMMA, NAME)

22 CPC Strategy (2-5 yr) Strategic Challenges Improve products Improve models Meet National / International commitments Address Challenges New Probabilistic Forecasts for weeks 2-4 (risks of heat or cold waves; heavy rain events) Objective seasonal drought prediction; NIDIS Objective seasonal TC forecasts (freq; intensity) Diagnostic and modeling studies –Reduce tropical biases –Understand climate processes –Influences of MJO on ENSO & vice-versa Global Climate Training Program Provide leadership in NOAA’s CIS Program

23 CPC Strategy (>5 yr) Strategic Challenges Improve products Improve models Improve Climate Services Address Challenges Collaborative product suites (air quality, ecosystems, human health, H2O mgmt) Earth System models (The “E” in NCEP) Seamless prediction (Wx-Cx link; SI & beyond) Physical understanding of trends National Climate Information Service (International?) Economic benefits of climate forecast products

24 Climate Information: Responding to User Needs Bringing Observations, Data Management, Modeling, and Prediction into the Decision Process A national workshop sponsored by the University of Maryland in partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society Workshop Co-Chairmen: James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information - businesses, government agencies from federal to local, policy organizations and planning offices that need specific kinds of information to ensure the best decisions in adapting to climate change. The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two-day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, This event will foster dialogue between the providers of climate information and its diverse user community to define specific measures needed to enhance the use of climate observations, data management, modeling, and predictions in support of business and policy decisions. The workshop will consist of plenary and breakout panel sessions, and a peer-reviewed poster session. Conference Objectives: To identify how users, stakeholders, and decision makers are influenced by climate on time scales from seasons to decades To identify the needs and requirements of users, stakeholders, and decision makers for climate information, observations, predictions, and services from global to local scales To identify what adaptation measures are being considered in the private and public sectors, and how this might result in new classes of information for decision support To recommend principal elements of the path forward toward more effective use of climate services in decision making Watch your for further details on the event or contact for more Climate Information: Responding to User Needs Bringing Observations, Data Management, Modeling, and Prediction into the Decision Process A national workshop sponsored by the University of Maryland in partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society Workshop Co-Chairmen: James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information - businesses, government agencies from federal to local, policy organizations and planning offices that need specific kinds of information to ensure the best decisions in adapting to climate change. The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two-day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, This event will foster dialogue between the providers of climate information and its diverse user community to define specific measures needed to enhance the use of climate observations, data management, modeling, and predictions in support of business and policy decisions. The workshop will consist of plenary and breakout panel sessions, and a peer-reviewed poster session. Conference Objectives: To identify how users, stakeholders, and decision makers are influenced by climate on time scales from seasons to decades To identify the needs and requirements of users, stakeholders, and decision makers for climate information, observations, predictions, and services from global to local scales To identify what adaptation measures are being considered in the private and public sectors, and how this might result in new classes of information for decision support To recommend principal elements of the path forward toward more effective use of climate services in decision making Watch your for further details on the event or contact for more Climate Information: Responding to User Needs Bringing Observations, Data Management, Modeling, and Prediction into the Decision Process A national workshop sponsored by the University of Maryland in partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society Workshop Co-Chairmen: James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information - businesses, government agencies from federal to local, policy organizations and planning offices that need specific kinds of information to ensure the best decisions in adapting to climate change. The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two-day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, This event will foster dialogue between the providers of climate information and its diverse user community to define specific measures needed to enhance the use of climate observations, data management, modeling, and predictions in support of business and policy decisions. The workshop will consist of plenary and breakout panel sessions, and a peer-reviewed poster session. Conference Objectives: To identify how users, stakeholders, and decision makers are influenced by climate on time scales from seasons to decades To identify the needs and requirements of users, stakeholders, and decision makers for climate information, observations, predictions, and services from global to local scales To identify what adaptation measures are being considered in the private and public sectors, and how this might result in new classes of information for decision support To recommend principal elements of the path forward toward more effective use of climate services in decision making Watch your for further details on the event or contact for more Climate Information: Responding to User Needs Bringing Observations, Data Management, Modeling, and Prediction into the Decision Process A national workshop sponsored by the University of Maryland in partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society Workshop Co-Chairmen: James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information - businesses, government agencies from federal to local, policy organizations and planning offices that need specific kinds of information to ensure the best decisions in adapting to climate change. The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two-day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, This event will foster dialogue between the providers of climate information and its diverse user community to define specific measures needed to enhance the use of climate observations, data management, modeling, and predictions in support of business and policy decisions. The workshop will consist of plenary and breakout panel sessions, and a peer-reviewed poster session. Conference Objectives: To identify how users, stakeholders, and decision makers are influenced by climate on time scales from seasons to decades To identify the needs and requirements of users, stakeholders, and decision makers for climate information, observations, predictions, and services from global to local scales To identify what adaptation measures are being considered in the private and public sectors, and how this might result in new classes of information for decision support To recommend principal elements of the path forward toward more effective use of climate services in decision making Watch your for further details on the event or contact for more Climate Information: Responding to User Needs A national workshop sponsored by the University of Maryland in partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society Workshop Co-Chairmen: James R. Mahoney, Workshop Co-Chairmen: James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two- day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, “Future Climate Forecast Products from CPC” New Environmental Forecast Products Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy Swimming and Fishing restrictions Tropical bacteria alerts Expect fisheries downturn; health threats Health warning: Limit outdoor activities; expect brownouts Frequent drought and Asian dust threats continue Major fires Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust Major fisheries regime change likely Air quality alerts – 75% of days

25 Message NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: –Observations –Models and Assimilation Systems –Computing Support –Products and Forecast Services CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base. Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges: –CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ., RISAs, others New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research  Operations Operations  Research.

26 Back-up Slides

27 Outline Message The Climate Mission NWS and NCEP Climate Support FY07 Highlights - CPC Future Challenges CPC Strategy Message

28 NWS Support for Climate Services All NCEP products linked directly to: –122 Weather Forecast Offices – 13 River Forecast Centers – 22 Central Weather Service Units Regional climate models for “downscaling” purposes NWS Regions assigned climate focal points for each station  with training – outreach materials Coop modernization  Climate Reference Network

29 Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) Backup in Fairmont, WV NCEP Climate Support: Computing Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) $20M/Year Investment Of which $5M is for Climate

30 Collaborate Across NCEP, NOAA & Beyond Enhance collaboration with NCEP centers NCO: transition to compute farm; GIS-conversion; GrADS EMC: CFS reanalysis and re-forecast to support model calibration HPC: coordinate the International Desks OPC: probabilistic storm track products and ocean monitoring products TPC: need for and science behind seasonal TC forecasts SPC: bridge SPC day 4-8 and CPC day 8-14 outlooks AWC: backup site for CPC forecast products SEC: evaluate representation of stratosphere in SEC model Enhance collaboration with Climate Program Transition activities (CTB competitive grants programs) International Activities (Global Climate Training Program – FY 10-14) National Climate Information Service

31 NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park