MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Stack of Papers (represent you and your work) The Forces of Chaotic Change and Thrive-ability The Waves -- Foreseeable Future Events Westbrook Stevens Storms of Chaotic Change

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Trends in Information 1.Every two or three years, the knowledge base doubles. 2.Every day, 7,000 scientific and technical articles are published. 3.Satellites orbiting the globe send enough data to fill 19 million volumes in the Library of Congress – every two weeks. US Governmental Website on Education

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/ High school graduates have been exposed to more information than their grandparents were in a lifetime. 5.Only 15 percent of jobs will require college education, but nearly all jobs will require the equivalent knowledge of a college education. 6.There will be as much change in the next three decades as there was in the last three centuries. Other Trends in Information US Governmental Website on Education

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Today 155,000,000 X X Over the Next Century Japanese Population Growth About 1/3 X

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The New Certainties Peter F. Drucker, Management Challenges for the 21st Century, Harper Business,  The Collapsing Birthrate in the Developed World  Japan, South Italy, USA, etc.  Fewer Children  More money spent on the fewer children  Shift In Demographics  Older Population  Shift in retirement ages  Shift in worker policies

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Values and Ethics and Spin  Shifts in Conservative and Liberal Thought  Media and Ad Coverage Issues  Selfishness over truth  Social Diseases  Value Placed on Life  3 out 5 Marriages End in Divorce  Physical Abuse

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 What changes are expected  More effective organizations and quality improvement.  Quicker decision making.  Flatter organization.  More Project Management/Team Work  More effective communication.  Decline of unions but rise in expectations.  Increase in levels of education.  Share in profits and other benefits.

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Growth of Project Oriented Organizations 1. Speed and market responsiveness have become absolute requirements for successful competition 2. The development of new products, processes, or services regularly requires input from diverse areas of specialized knowledge 3. Rapid expansion of technological possibilities in almost every area of enterprise tends to destabilize organizational structures 4. A majority of senior managers rarely feel much confidence in their understanding and control of the activities in their areas Chapter 4-1 Meredith, J. R., & Mantel, S. J., Jr. (2000). Project management: A managerial approach (4th ed.) [UOP Special Edition Series]. New York: Wiley.

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Paramount Forces driving PM 1.The exponential expansion of human knowledge 2.The growing demand for a broad range of complex, sophisticated, customized goods and services 3.The evolution of worldwide competitive markets for the production and consumption of goods and services  All 3 forces combine to mandate teams to solve problems that used to be solvable by individuals Chapter 1-2 Meredith, J. R., & Mantel, S. J., Jr. (2000). Project management: A managerial approach (4th ed.) [UOP Special Edition Series]. New York: Wiley.

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Professionalism of Project Management  Complexity of problems  Growth in number of project oriented organizations  The Project Management Institute (PMI) was established in 1969  By 1990 it had 7,500 members  5 years later, over 17,000 members  And by 1998, it had exploded to over 44,000 members  This exponential growth in the use of projects  Importance of PMI in the development of the profession Chapter 1-5 Meredith, J. R., & Mantel, S. J., Jr. (2000). Project management: A managerial approach (4th ed.) [UOP Special Edition Series]. New York: Wiley.

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Forces of Chaotic Change and Thrive-ability The Waves -- Foreseeable Future Events The Lightning -- Unforeseeable Future Events Westbrook Stevens Storms of Chaotic Change

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Forces of Chaotic Change and Thrive-ability The Waves -- Foreseeable Future Events The Buoyancy -- Supporting Market, Societal, Political and Other Allied Forces The Lightning -- Unforeseeable Future Events Westbrook Stevens Storms of Chaotic Change

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Buoyancy  Personal  Physical, Emotional, Spiritual, Mental, Church, Family, Friends…  Supporting Markets,  Customers, Clients, Suppliers,  Societal,  People Are on Your Side, Your Business Is Popular,  Political,  Rules Are on Your Side  Other Allied Forces

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Forces of Chaotic Change and Thrive-ability The Waves -- Foreseeable Future Events The Buoyancy -- Supporting Market, Societal, Political and Other Allied Forces The Lightning -- Unforeseeable Future Events The Storm -- Threatening Competition, Societal, Political and Other Enemy Forces Westbrook Stevens Storms of Chaotic Change

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 Andrew Grove, Chairman and CEO of Intel Corporation  It use to be that when we had a good idea, we had some time to implement it.  Now we find that 6 other companies have the same idea.  Some are ahead of us and some are behind us. Forbes Great Minds of Business

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Forces of Chaotic Change and Thrive-ability The Ship -- The Organization’s Designed Purpose and Sea Worthiness The Waves -- Foreseeable Future Events The Buoyancy -- Supporting Market, Societal, Political and Other Allied Forces The Lightning -- Unforeseeable Future Events The Storm -- Threatening Competition, Societal, Political and Other Enemy Forces Westbrook Stevens Storms of Chaotic Change

MGT/437 – Project Management © Westbrook Stevens /29/2015 The Storm Waves of Trends The Buoyancy The Lightning What Important Issues do You See Coming For Your Organization Over the Next 5 Year