New Season for Jobs? 29 October 2014 War Room. HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation.

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Presentation transcript:

New Season for Jobs? 29 October 2014 War Room

HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation deck Product Updates Scenario Updates

Market Update 2015 Fed Stress Tests USA Jobs Pulse Check New Season for Jobs? Adios QE

HiddenLevers MARKET UPDATE

Market Update QE ends in year 6 Volatility Hoax Bullard saves Market sources: HiddenLevers Oil touched $79

Market Update – Ebola Pandemic sources: HiddenLevers, University of Hong Kong, USA TodayHiddenLeversUniversity of Hong Kong USA Today 15% SARS 2003 Airlines crippled from tourist fear Ebola 2014 Airlines doing fine, Delta saying bookings unaffected Macro Snapshot

Oil and mortgage rates crash as the S&P 500 holds its own. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has reached 2005 levels and jobless claims are lowest in a decade.

2015 FED STRESS TESTS HiddenLevers

Why does the Fed create Stress Tests? “These scenarios are not a forecast. Rather, they are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength of banking organizations and their resilience to an unfavorable economic environment.” -Federal Reserve Bank

Review: 2014 Fed Stress Tests (Dec 2014) MISS 10y Treasuries closer to 2 than 3 MISS CPI + Commodities overvalued HIT 15% S&P rise projected.. could happen source: HiddenLevers, Federal ReserveFederal Reserve

GOOD: Fed Baseline Scenario source: HiddenLevers, Federal ReserveFederal Reserve sustained moderate expansion gradual normalization of treasury yields real GDP under 3% unemployment declines to 5% asset prices rising steadily inflation at 2% low equity market volatility average of outside economic forecasters

BAD: Fed Adverse Scenario rapid increase in short-term rates to 2.5% bank costs soar due to rate rise unemployment over 7% global weakening + US inflation squeeze mild US recession into mid-2015 inflation over 4% source: HiddenLevers, Federal ReserveFederal Reserve yield curve higher + flatter decline in home prices, felt more in high gainer areas

UGLY: Fed Severely Adverse Scenario equity market distress exceeds brent crude oil prices rise to 110usd CPI over 4% on oil shock Rates -->2017 Short term at 0 long term at 1% global weakening + intense US recession + oil shock Unemployment over 10% GDP growth takes serious hit -- 4% source: HiddenLevers, Federal ReserveFederal Reserve divergence corporate bonds yields higher rapid exits EM private equity securitizations Economies dependent on imported oil suffer more UMMM?

#FAIL: Fed Severely Adverse Scenario source: HiddenLevers, Federal ReserveFederal Reserve why no scenario for global deflation risk?

Scenario: 2015 Fed Stress Tests Good Baseline Bad Adverse Ugly Severely Adverse The Baseline includes steady equities growth, fast real estate appreciation, and moderate inflation + GDP growth. The Adverse scenario is a stag- flation scenario, with high inflation and poor growth. The Severely Adverse scenario includes an equities decline of 50%, a deep recession, and static interest rates.

HiddenLevers USA JOBS PULSE CHECK $

Jobs Recovery: Pulse Check sources: Heritage, St. Louis FedHeritageSt. Louis Fed Participation Down Job Openings Up

Jobs Recovery : Comparison to Previous source: BLS, HeritageBLSHeritage Bad news 77 months did much more for past recoveries Good news 77 months to get back to pre-recession employment.

sources: Forbes, SUNY OswegoForbesSUNY Oswego Compared to other global financial crises, post-2007 US jobs recovery has been strong GDP Per Capita has risen modestly in US since 2007, and fallen in every European country save Germany Jobs Recovery: Global Perspective

Jobs Recovery: Quantity vs Quality sources: National Employment Law Project, HiddenLeversNational Employment Law ProjectHiddenLevers Wages decreasing for all but 1%. Jobs recovered are low wage. Employment Cost Index shows slowing of wage gains.

HiddenLevers NEW SEASON FOR JOBS?

New Season: Tech Automation = Job Killer Unemployment dropping but Who is rejoining work force? Productivity growing but Employment not so much sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Lowes Robot Shopper

New Season: Startups Myth sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Season: Jobs Cycle + Market Cycle When non-farm payrolls drop below 0 and stick there, trouble lies ahead. When non-farm payrolls stay above 0, market tends to rally steadily. sources: HiddenLevers

New Season for Jobs?: Recap US leading first world in job growth Fed clueless on inflation? no markets crash during jobs recoveries US Jobs have surpassed peak

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