Preliminary Resource Adequacy Assessment for the 2017 Pacific Northwest Power Supply NW Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting August 16 th.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Power Supply Adequacy Assessment Model/Methodology Review Steering Subcommittee Meeting January 29, 2010.

Advertisements

Preliminary Review of July 24 th Extreme Temperature Event & Implications for Pilot Capacity Standard Mary Johannis & Wally Gibson PNW Resource Adequacy.

Resource Adequacy Forum 2019 Adequacy Assessment Overview PNGC Offices June 28, 2013.

Genesys Model Enhancements October 4, 2011 NW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting Gwendolyn S Shearer.

ERCOT PUBLIC 4/21/ Loss of Load Probability Assessment for NERC April, 2015.

Draft Avoided Cost Forecast and Marginal CO 2 Offset Value of Conservation Regional Technical Forum Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

NW Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Conference Call November 4, 2010.

Climate Change and The NW Power Supply Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington April 21, 2009.

1 Planning Reserve Margin Dan Egolf Senior Manager, Power Supply & Planning.

A Resource Adequacy Standard for the Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Technical Committee January 17, 2008 Portland Airport.

Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting April 6, 2011.

Developing an Adequacy Metric Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Subcommittee Meeting October 16, 2009.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Adding Incremental Flexibility to the Pacific Northwest Power System? Maury Galbraith Northwest Power.

Power System Research, Inc. Review of the PNW Adequacy Standard Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting October 1, 2010.

Adequacy Assessment for the 2017 Pacific Northwest Power Supply Steering Committee Meeting October 26, 2012 Portland, Oregon 1.

Revising the Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Standard Resource Adequacy Technical Committee June 23, 2011.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating.

Illustrative FCRPS Examples Comparing Capacity Adequacy Calculations for Federal Hydro- Dominated System Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Technical.

May 31, Resource Adequacy Capacity Standard Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee May 31, 2006 Background Image: Bennett, Christian Science.

Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting April 6, 2011.

Evaluating Hydro Capacity for Capacity Adequacy Standard: Selection of Hydro Events Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Mtg November.

Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011.

Relationship of Regional Resource Adequacy Standards to Utility Planning PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting June 27, 2007.

Power Association of Northern California Maintaining Grid Reliability In An Uncertain Era May 16, 2011 PG&E Conference Center Jim Mcintosh Director, Executive.

Interim and Long-term Approaches for Assessing Wind’s Contribution to Capacity Adequacy PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting July 21, 2008.

Providing Resource Planning Guidance to Individual Utilities PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting June 20, 2007.

Winter Power Supply Adequacy/Reliability Analysis Power Committee Briefing October 17, 2001.

2009 Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment Resource Adequacy Technical Committee October 16, 2009.

2010 Work Plan Steering Committee January 29, 2010.

Moving toward a Final Resource Adequacy Standard Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Meeting September 27, 2007.

09/17/2006 Ken Donohoo ERCOT Peak Day August Initial Settlement Data by Fuel Type.

Providing Resource Planning Guidance to Individual Utilities PNW Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting April 13, 2007.

Work Plan Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee July 29, 2009.

Capacity Metric & Hydro Capacity Assessment Decisions Mary Johannis PNW Resource Adequacy Technical Committee Meeting June 20, 2007.

Northwest Resource Adequacy Implementation – Update ---- DRAFT ---- NW Adequacy Forum Technical Committee May 31, 2006.

Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2015 Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting October 1, 2010.

September 28, 2012 Draft Assessment Results Technical Committee Meeting September 28,

Out of Region Market Assumption Resource Adequacy Technical Committee December 1, 2011.

Developing Synthetic Temperature-Correlated Wind Generation Data Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010.

Probabilistic Approach to Resource Adequacy Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting Portland, OR January 23, 2009.

Using the Trapezoidal Model to Derate NW Hydro Capacity Resource Adequacy Technical Committee July 25, 2007 Portland, Oregon.

Defining LOLP Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Subcommittee Meeting November 14, 2008.

Steering Committee Meeting March 9, Why talk about assumptions? Garbage in, garbage out! “Let’s go dumpster diving!” Results sensitive to key.

2010 Northwest Regional Forecast Resource Adequacy Technical Committee April 22, 2010.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting.

1 Portfolio Analysis Update Power Committee Discussion August 30, 2004.

2021 Adequacy Assessment Data Requirements Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Technical Committee Meeting March 18, 2016.

Power Supply Adequacy for the 2021 Operating Year Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Steering Committee Webinar June 8, 2016.

Target Reserve Margin (TRM) and Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) of Wind Plants Evaluation - Input and Methodology ERCOT Planning 03/25/2010.

EPS Updates ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting October 13, 2016

WECC 2026 Common Case Capacity Assessment with RECAP

Demand Response in the 7th Power Plan

Steering Committee Webinar March 25, 2016

Vetting the GENESYS Model

اختر أي شخصية واجعلها تطير!

Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2015 Interim Results Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting July 28, 2010.

Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment

2021 Adequacy Assessment Status Report

Technical Committee Meeting March 18, 2016

Planning Reserve Margin

Technical Committee Meeting March 18, 2016

Steering Committee Webinar March 25, 2016

Progress on Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2017

Status of the Resource Adequacy Forum

Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011

Simulated vs. Real Hourly Dispatch Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting October 1, 2010.

Online Pogo Game Customer Service

Pogo Game Customer Care Helpline Number

Call Pogo Contact Phone Number and Enjoy Pogo Game

Presentation transcript:

Preliminary Resource Adequacy Assessment for the 2017 Pacific Northwest Power Supply NW Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting August 16 th

Outline Range of LOLP Range of LOLP Sensitivities Sensitivities Review of Forum assumptions Review of Forum assumptions Data that may need more review Data that may need more review Today’s committee decisions Today’s committee decisions Action items Action items

Range of LOLP (Illustrative) High Market, High Load Low Market, High Load High Market, Low Load Low Market, Low Load

Sensitivities SW Market SW Market Loads Loads Resources Resources Wind Data Wind Data

Sensitivity Studies (SW Market) On-peak winter LOLP (%) LOLH (hrs/yr) EUE (mw-hr) 0.0 GW GW GW

Sensitivity Studies (Load) Operating year loads LOLP (%) LOLH (hrs/yr) EUE (mw-hr)

Sensitivity Studies (Resources) Resources LOLP (%) LOLH (hrs/yr) EUE (mw-hr) Existing MW CCCT

Sensitivity Studies (Wind Data) Wind Data (210 games) LOLP (%) LOLH (hrs/yr) EUE (mw-hr) Temp-Correlated Non Temp-Correlated Historic

Other Sensitivities Random variable correlations (e.g. should we lockstep temp and hydro?) Random variable correlations (e.g. should we lockstep temp and hydro?) Starting seed and order of seeds for random draws Starting seed and order of seeds for random draws Number of games (may need > 1400) Number of games (may need > 1400) Compiler? Compiler?

Review of Forum Assumptions SW on-peak – 1.7GW winter, 0 summer SW on-peak – 1.7GW winter, 0 summer SW off-peak – 3GW winter, 1GW summer SW off-peak – 3GW winter, 1GW summer Conservation – 6 th plan expected Conservation – 6 th plan expected Resources – existing, licensed and sited Resources – existing, licensed and sited Loads – medium forecast Loads – medium forecast

Load Forecast

Data that May Need More Review SW Market availability SW Market availability Wind data Wind data Load Forecasts Load Forecasts Other? Other?

Today’s Committee Decisions Sensitivity studies OK? If not, redo list. Sensitivity studies OK? If not, redo list. Comfortable with the results? If not, identify areas that need more work. Comfortable with the results? If not, identify areas that need more work. Pass results to the steering committee? If not, postpone Aug 30 th meeting. Pass results to the steering committee? If not, postpone Aug 30 th meeting.

Action Items Reassess SW market availability with more current and complete information Reassess SW market availability with more current and complete information Review wind data more carefully, especially temp-correlated data Review wind data more carefully, especially temp-correlated data Review resource maintenance schedules Review resource maintenance schedules Review load forecasts Review load forecasts