UCL Environment Institute Climate Change and Complexity.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Economic Impacts of Climate Change
Advertisements

The economics of climate change: the messages to Africa Presentation for the CDM DNA Forum Addis Ababa, 6 th October 2007 Hannah Muthoni Ryder.
Friends of the Earth Climate Change Campaign CLIMATE CAMPAIGN.
The water-food-energy nexus from an energy system modelling perspective Paul Dodds.
The Economics of Climate Change Nicholas Stern 15 November 2006 Presentation to the Convention Dialogue, Nairobi.
1 ACT AND ADAPT: CLIMATE CHANGE IN SCOTLAND Climate Change Division.
1 The Economics of Climate Change: Costs and Benefits of Reducing GHG Emissions Maureen Cropper University of Maryland and Resources for the Future August.
Calculate your carbon footprints Sam Chanthy Stockholm Environment Institute v CO 2.
The science of climate change Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government British Council/Warsaw University Centre for Environmental Studies.
The Greenhouse Effect. SPM 3 Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times Carbon dioxide: 33%
Global Warming; The Imperatives For Action From The Science of Climate Change Sir David King Chief Scientific Adviser To The UK Government The American.
Tackling Dangerous Climate Change A UK perspective on a global issue Jonathan Brearley Director – Office Of Climate Change.
1 The UK’s Climate Change Act: opportunities and challenges in building a low carbon economy
Somerset County Council Climate Change Strategy Abigail Stretch Sustainable Development Officer.
Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California.
CLIMATE CHANGE A Christian Challenge & Opportunity A presentation by Sir John Houghton to the National Association of Evangelicals Washington DC March.
Why Climate Change is important for Vietnam. Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources Source: World Resources Institute.
Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and Civil Engineering Dr Stuart Parkinson
Rural Development Council, October 2009 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act – A Framework for a Low Carbon Scotland Philip Wright, Deputy Director, Scottish.
The Kyoto Protocol Reaching Global Agreements 1997.
Objective: Understand Causes, Effects and Solutions of Global Warming
1 THE CARBON CYCLE AND GLOBAL WARMING. 2 CARBON CYCLE Movement of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and geosphere Movement of carbon between.
EU Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division.
1 Climate Change: What Role for Parliamentarians? Dr Jan Wright Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment.
Climate change and its impact on health in the Pacific Basin Alistair Woodward School of Population Health University of Auckland.
Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study Background to the study Terms of reference announced in January 08 Aim of the study: To enable Government to decide.
Should the U.S. ratify it? Daniela Sol 21 Oct PROTOCOL.
Environmental Wellness
Working with Uncertainty Population, technology, production, consumption Emissions Atmospheric concentrations Radiative forcing Socio-economic impacts.
The scientific evidence is conclusive EUROPEAN COMMISSION FEBRUARY 2009 Climate change.
Climate Change Stratosphere made up of gases that trap radiation (heat) from earth’s surface, causing it to be warmer than otherwise Acts like greenhouse,
Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities Dr Frank McGovern.
The appliance of science – a policy perspective NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015 David Warrilow Head of Science DECC.
Energy & Its Impact on Global Society Jerome K. Williams, Ph.D. Saint Leo University Dept. Mathematics & Sciences.
The policy implications of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions or Don’t Ignite the Lignite! Policy Ignite Presentation 4 May 2010 Milan Ilnyckyj
THINKING LONG TERM: Confronting Global Climate Change Written by James J. MacKenzie Senior Associate World Resources Institute (WRI)
Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper Peter G Taylor Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios” June.
Global warming Created by: Natalia Gilecka. G lobal warming is very important problem in the world. I t has already affected human health around the.
The Science and Economics of Climate Change Based on presentations by John Houghton of IPCC, Earthguage, the Met. Office and the Stern Review.
Face the Facts of Climate Change. Face the Facts Activity: 1.Form small groups. 2.Listen while a climate change statement is read aloud. 3.Discuss the.
Knowledge for development under climate change Habiba Gitay World Bank Institute.
Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 15 Energy Conservation.
Chapter 20 Global Climate Change. Climate Change Terminology  Greenhouse Gas  Gas that absorbs infrared radiation  Positive Feedback  Change in some.
Devon in 2038 and how should it affect our strategic planning now? Report of the work of Devon Futures Group.
Philip Wright Head of Climate Change and Air, ERAD Changing our Ways Executive action on climate change.
Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Copenhagen Accord – Leading up to the meeting – developing country arguments: Developed countries must “take the lead” NAMAs must.
Georgia Climate Change Summit antruth Al Gore: an inconvenient truth IPCC: 4th Assessment Report 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
Climate change Challenges and Opportunities Ian Lowe April 28, 2009.
Climate Change – Defra’s Strategy & Priorities Dr Steven Hill Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs 22 nd May 2007 FLOODING DESTRUCTION AT.
Climate East Midlands Module 2 - Climate change Why councils should act now.
More than Polar Bears The Human Impact of Climate Change Mark Fried Oxfam Canada April 2009.
GLOBAL WARMING Do you aware of danger?.
Climate Change Mitigation: Some inputs for group discussion Hanoi, 10 June 2009 Nguyen Quang Tan RECOFTC – The Center for People and Forest.
Human Impact on Ecosystems: Recent Climate Change.
Chapter 21 Global Climate Change. Overview of Chapter 21  Introduction to Climate Change  Causes of Global Climate Change  Effects of Climate Change.
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION. Vision A productive and profitable future for American agriculture based on a research program that correctly.
Recent Reports on Climate Change IPCC Working Group 1: Climate Change 2013 President Obama’s Climate Action Plan June 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment.
Module 1 – The Big Picture The Big Picture.
Global Warming Andrés López Falero ENGL ONL Dr. Alex Xavier Caride González.
Global Warming The heat is on!. What do you know about global warming? Did you know: Did you know: –the earth on average has warmed up? –some places have.
World Regional Geography Unit I: Introduction to World Regional Geography Lesson 4: Solutions to Global Warming Debate.
Key idea: Managing climate change involves both mitigation (reducing causes) and adaptation (responding to change). Mitigation – alternative energy production,
Climate Change Stratosphere made up of gases that trap radiation (heat) from earth’s surface, causing it to be warmer than otherwise Acts like greenhouse,
Care for future generations: the impact of climate change
Climate Change Stratosphere made up of gases that trap radiation (heat) from earth’s surface, causing it to be warmer than otherwise Acts like greenhouse,
Climate Change – coping with its effects
Energy & Its Impact on Global Society
Chapter 9 How should governments in Canada respond to political and economic issues?
Recent Climate Change Chapter 14 Lesson 3.
Presentation transcript:

UCL Environment Institute Climate Change and Complexity

UCL Environment Institute 21 st C Challenges: Climate Change and Global Poverty

UCL Environment Institute 10 million children starve to death each year

UCL Environment Institute Communicate the basic science – it is simple physics

UCL Environment Institute Stored Sunlight COAL and Oil

UCL Environment Institute 80% from industry and 20% from deforestation but half is absorbed by the biosphere and oceans

UCL Environment Institute

2005 Hacking into scientists s does not make the evidence go away!

UCL Environment Institute

Depends on the data you put In the model. Cooling and warming factors Science is good, but predictions concerning society are not … Think 1910 or even 1980? How ‘super’ are the models?

UCL Environment Institute General Circulation models

UCL Environment Institute B1B2 A2 A1 B: balanced Fi: fossil-intensive T: non-fossil More economic More globalMore regional More environmental Society is the biggest unknown - so we build scenarios

UCL Environment Institute

UN Predictions of global population in billions

UCL Environment Institute 6 o C warming and 1 metre sea level rise by 2100

UCL Environment Institute Coping Range Current Climate Changed Climate

UCL Environment Institute

Stott et al., 2004 Nature Summer 2003: Not Anomalous by 2040

UCL Environment Institute Flood risk Change in storm surge height Height for 50yr return period; 2080s A2 emissions

UCL Environment Institute Sea Level Rise

UCL Environment Institute more extreme storms, floods, drought, heat waves - may leading to food and water insecurity, - may leading to food and water insecurity, - may leading to migration and conflict What are the effects of climate change

UCL Environment Institute How can we deal with uncertain climate change? Twin Approaches What ever we do now, there will still be climate change So we need to 1. Mitigate (reduce our carbon foot-print) 2. Adapt (protect our people)

UCL Environment Institute Exeter Meeting Feb 2005 G8 9 July 2009 Agreed at Copenhagen 2°C What is dangerous climate change?

UCL Environment Institute Source: Hadley Centre CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

UCL Environment Institute Contraction and Convergence Business as usual Global Deal?

UCL Environment Institute Total and per capita emissions – target is 2 tons/capita

UCL Environment Institute What is the UK plan 1.Decarbonise electricity generation 2.Increase energy efficiency 3. Move to electric dominate transport 4. Adapt to predicted climate change

UCL Environment Institute 31 UK possible path to 80% cut by Services Residential Transport Hydrogen Electricity Upstream & non- sector Industry Agriculture Domestic fossil fuel & industry process CO 2 emissions (MtCO 2 per year)

UCL Environment Institute 32 Growth in UK living standards: with 80% emissions cut GDP per capita 2006= – 2.0% lower Business as usual 80% emissions cut

UCL Environment Institute GOOD NEWS 1 70% of the World Energy requirements for 2030 has yet to be built

UCL Environment Institute GOOD NEWS 2: Carbon Trading - ETS and Future US systems

UCL Environment Institute UCL Carbon Auditors Limited US Patent for calculating annual carbon flux at a 250m resolution for Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Grid for Terrestrial Carbon Credits Annual Carbon Flux

UCL Environment Institute Example of Gabon Customers obtain: Certainty of carbon stock and carbon stock changes, which are: 1. Assessed and monitored against international standards and procedures, providing – 2. Confidence in the accuracy of the data obtained, underpinned by – 3. Highly reputable expertise from the CAL team based at UCL Gabon Annual Carbon Flux UN REDD+ we need to make a tree worth more standing up and being cut down

UCL Environment Institute Adaptation – aim for 2˚C but plan for 4˚C Adaptation essential to protect the people Science can give broad picture of what the future may hold to design policy

UCL Environment Institute Some thoughts 1.Policy makers need to understand uncertainties in the science so they can make informed decisions 2. Climate change is just one of many problems that must be tackled, but it can make other problems worse 3. Alternative Energy.. essential as development needs power and we must alleviate global poverty 4. Natural resources such as forest need to commodified to finance development 5. Global deal must include Developing countries – can not fail again like Copenhagen

UCL Environment Institute “The poorest and those who have contributed least to climate change will be first affected” Ethics and morals “The carbon footprint of the poorest 1 billion people is around 3% of the world’s total footprint……loss of life will be 500 times greater in Africa”