Is Bitcoin really a currency? David Yermack NYU Stern School of Business November 22, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Is Bitcoin really a currency? David Yermack NYU Stern School of Business November 22, 2013

What is Bitcoin? A stateless, “algorithmic” currency That exists only in cyberspace Major demand is in U.S., China, and certain European countries Bitcoin / USD exchange rate: –July 17, Bitcoin = $ –November 21, Bitcoin = $

Bitcoin’s appreciation vs. USD Past week71% November 2013 (so far)251% 2013 year to date5,382% Since inception1,495,749%

Daily trading volume Mt. Gox exchange $0 $10 $1,000 $100,000 $10,000,000 $1,000,000,000

History of Bitcoin Bitcoin is proposed as a “peer to peer electronic cash system” by an unknown software engineer, October First Bitcoin issued electronically, January Current worldwide supply = c. 12 million. Mt. Gox trading market opens, July U.S. Treasury issues first regulatory guidance for virtual currencies, March Federal regulators, including Bernanke, comment favorably upon Bitcoin at the U.S. Senate hearing, November 2013.

Bitcoin’s appeal Bitcoin’s value cannot be debased by any government. The supply of Bitcoins can only grow slowly and is limited by a computer alogrithm to 21 million. Bitcoin attacts young, affluent users of eCommerce. Seigniorage revenue goes to entrepreneurs who “mine” new Bitcoins by solving math problems.

Does Bitcoin have the characteristics of a currency? A currency is... 1.A medium of exchange 2.A unit of account 3.A store of value

Living on Bitcoin 101 days, 4 countries

Bitcoin ATM Installed in a Vancouver coffee shop, October 2013 Victoria Hansen makes first-ever transaction

Bitcoin investment vehicles Winklevoss Twins claim to own 1% of worldwide supply, July 2013, and file for IPO of the Wilklevoss Bitcoin Trust

Does Bitcoin have a stigma? Silk Road online drug market

Bitcoin’s security risks Denial-of-service attacks depress Mt. Gox trading volume, April 2013

Bitcoin and other currencies Seems to be worthless for hedging EURJPYCHRGBPBitcoin EUR JPY CHF GBP Bitcoin1.00

Bitcoin’s beta -10%-5%0%5%10% Market return -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Bitcoin return Slope = 0.67

What’s the best hedge for Bitcoin? Growth stocks like Vitamin Shoppe (NYSE VSI): ρ = Vitamin Shoppe (rescaled) Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s volatility 2013 to date Euro / USDBitcoin / USD

What can you not do with Bitcoin? Store it in a real bank that has deposit insurance Spend it anonymously Sell it short

How does the government feel about Bitcoin? Bitcoin precludes monetary policy Bitcoin precludes money laundering and tax evasion too

Bitcoin’s greatest vulnerability Market entry by competitors