TOPIC:Political Beliefs and Behaviors: Measuring Public Opinion AIM – How is Public Opinion Measured? Do Now: Complete Poll on Texting and Driving

How can statistics be misleading?

I. Public Opinion Polls A. Polling 1.Use a sample small portion of the population to represent the whole 2.Key to polls is their accuracy 3.Random sampling – everyone should have an equal probability of being selected as part of the sample

4. Sampling Error- Error- level of confidence of the sample which depends on its size 5. Most polls are done through computerized random digit telephone dialing

B. Role of Polls in American Democracy 1. We do not have to wait until elections to see if the public approves or disapproves of government’s course 2. Criticisms 2. Criticisms a. Politicians may pander to the polls a. Politicians may pander to the polls b. Americans may take an opinion because they see other people doing it b. Americans may take an opinion because they see other people doing it c. Exit Polls – Asking voters how they voted and why at select locations and announcing it prior to the end of election day c. Exit Polls – Asking voters how they voted and why at select locations and announcing it prior to the end of election day d. Easy to manipulate by question order or wording d. Easy to manipulate by question order or wording

C. What do Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information? Hamilton - “Your people, sir, are a great beast” Hamilton - “Your people, sir, are a great beast” Jefferson – “People take the tasks of citizenship seriously” Jefferson – “People take the tasks of citizenship seriously” Lincoln - “You may fool all of the people some of the time: and you can even fool some of the people all of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” Lincoln - “You may fool all of the people some of the time: and you can even fool some of the people all of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.”

D. What do Polls Reveal About Americans Political Information? 1. Americans are not well informed about politics a. They don’t know the platforms, issues, or candidates b. More people know their astrological sign than their Representative 2. Americans do not know Geography Should people who are politically ignorant be trusted with the right to vote?

E. Reliability of Polls 1. Opinion is constantly changing making some polls worthless 2. Bias: a. A leading question is one that leads the respondent to choose one response over another by its wording. –Leading questions are actually statements disguised as questions, and make respondents feel that only one response is legitimate. –For example: "Don't you agree that the government isn’t responsible to provide health care to all Americans?“ b. Prestige bias occurs when a statement, position, or response is associated with a prestigious person or group. Respondents may answer on the basis of their feelings toward the person of group rather than addressing the issue. –For example, a survey might state, "According to recent Gallup polls, 80 percent of the people support granting china Most Favored Nation Status. What is your opinion on this issue?" –This way of stating the position of a professional organization might easily sway people.

Questions: 1. What mistake did Literary Digest make in its sample in 1936? 1. What mistake did Literary Digest make in its sample in 1936? 2. Why should one be wary of the statistics provided by magazine and television news and entertainment shows? 2. Why should one be wary of the statistics provided by magazine and television news and entertainment shows? 3. Why are older men more often quoted in news and political programs? 3. Why are older men more often quoted in news and political programs? 4. How can the wording of questions affect the results of a poll? 4. How can the wording of questions affect the results of a poll?