WFO OKX – Topics in WDM Michael L. Ekster Severe Weather Warning Technology Workshop 12 July 2005

Area of Responsibility 2005 Population: 18.6 million (6.3% US Pop)

Major Programs Public Aviation Marine Hydrology Severe Weather Hazmat/Terrorism Fire Weather Upper Air Tropical

Issues during an event Largest media market in the world NYC OEM needs constant updates Spotter reports - Almost 100 phone calls PER HOUR Office has been short staffed for the last 3 years Below average experience (especially on Radar)

Issues... Never enough AWIPS workstations - 9 Tafs (3 major hubs) – almost need 2 forecasters for Tafs alone - Warnings - Statements - At least one forecast desk for routine product updates (what if a watch is issued?) - Public Service - Mesoanalysis? - Sectorization? (huge marine community!)

Issues… Forecaster to population ratio -One forecaster per 1.86 million people WFO OKX gets hit from all sides – 12 months of the year - Severe convective events - Winter storms - Tropical threat - Hazmat - Busiest aviation City in the world - Very large marine community Given weather threats and population, could very well be the most stressful FO in the country Help?

Radar/WDM Issues Sampling problems -Average height of lowest radar slice in the region of the CWA that usually receives worst convective weather is 7-12 kft

Radar/WDM Issues Pulse severe thunderstorms - Frequent occurrence - Can be deadly due to pop. density - One pulse tstm anywhere in the cwa can adversely affect 100k+ people - Need to find a way to achieve better lead times (especially over the most urbanized areas) - 5 minute lead times are nearly worthless here

Radar/WDM Issues Urban flooding - Some areas of NYC develop flash flooding with rainfall rates of less than 1”/hr. - Some areas of NYC can take a lot more - Rainfall estimations/Z-R relationships continue to be a challenge for many - Significant subway flooding Summer ’04 – no FFW! Worst event for the city since 9/11 Hydroview - Does not update in a timely manner (~ every 3 hours during an event) - Someone has to call the gages – takes away from doing other important tasks

Training is key Technology generally works, but is only as good the user! Must train staff on mesoscale processes and analysis of them – much better situational awareness AWOC/DLOC excellent courses, but how much is really relevant to Northeast severe weather? - Storm scale signatures not as classic here - Big consequences still do result – population - WES makes up for some of this, but how about an AWOC type course for Eastern U.S. WFOs? - Focus on mesoanalysis and storm scale signatures would be excellent

12z 08Aug99 OKX sounding

0-3 km CAPE Very low LCL Sounding modified for conditions immediately on the cool side of the boundary

Modified 0-6 km hodograph – storm motion and SFC winds