Enrolment Demand in the GTA Presentation to APPC Planning Forum Glenn Craney Executive Director Office of Institutional Research and Analysis January 2008

York has seen Significant Growth Over The Past Decade Source: OIRA

All Universities Have Experienced Significant Undergraduate Growth Source: MTCU

Little Change in Program Mix

Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada

Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada 7% increase over the past decade

Growth Has Been Fueled By Large Increases In Participation Rates Source: MTCU, Statistics Canada 7% increase over the past decade Double Cohort Year

Looking Forward – Traditional University Aged Population will Continue to Grow Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance

Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years. Source: OIRA

Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years. High Scenario ( +0.7% part rate pa) +35% increase + 125,000 Students Source: OIRA

Enrolment Demand Will Increase Significantly Over The Next 15 Years. High Scenario ( +0.7% part rate pa) +35% increase + 125,000 Students Low Scenario (+0.35% part rate pa) +22 % increase + 78,000 Students Source: OIRA

Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance Ontario Average +1%

Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance Outside GTA - 11% Due to low birth rates

Provincial Analysis – Most Of The Growth Will Be In The GTA Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance GTA Growth + 15% Fueled by Immigration

Provincial Analysis – 55% of Students from the GTA attend GTA universities Source: 2005 OUAC

Provincial Analysis – Over 90% Of Students Outside The GTA Attend Non-GTA Area Universities Source: 2005 OUAC

Regional Analysis - Peel And York Regions Represents Two Thirds Of The Projected Growth Durham – 5% growth or 2,000 to 2,600 enrolments York Region – 33% growth or 7,000 to 20,000 enrolments Peel Region – 26% growth or 7,000 to 20,000 enrolments Toronto 4% growth or 2,000 to 6,000 enrolments

Regional Analysis - York draws heavily from York Region Participation rates across Peel, York, Durham and Toronto: A large proportion of York Region students attend York University. York University Ryerson University University of Toronto

Projected Growth Required for GTA Universities to Maintain Share of GTA Enrolments Source: OIRA Low Scenario +42,000 Students High Scenario + 60,000 Students

Research on New Canadians Source: OIRA, Academica Research