Commuter Rail Ridership Update An addendum to the updated Commuter Rail Report released in February Prepared by: Dean Del Mastro - Member of Parliament, Peterborough Riding May 2008

Peterborough/Toronto Commuter Rail is a high priority commitment of the Federal Government as indicated in the 2008 Federal Budget. No other level of government has been asked to contribute toward the necessary rail infrastructure upgrades. The funding for the infrastructure portion of the project has been set aside within Ontario’s share of Building Canada and will be released once Ontario signs onto the agreement.

The 2006 Provincial Transportation for Tomorrow Survey found that over 40,000 people travel between the Peterborough – Kawartha Lakes area and the Toronto- Durham area each day. While 979 of these travelers currently use transit, there remains 40,000 commuters that are traveling by car daily excluding the significantly higher number from Durham and York regions. The initial report on Commuter rail suggested daily ridership of 903 persons/day from all regions along the route. New data dictates that the actual rider numbers will be much greater than initially projected.

If 3% of the current commuters traveling by car switched to rail the ridership from Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes alone will exceed 2000 persons daily. Market conditions such as increased traffic congestion, substantial population growth throughout the Eastern Greater Golden Horseshoe Region as well as the new environmental reality and increased cost of gasoline dictate that past experience ridership totals cannot be used to project expected ridership for the new commuter line. The population of the Peterborough-Toronto corridor has increased by 320,000 since York and Durham alone have grown 22.4% and 10.6% respectively between 1996 and 2001.

Ontario’s population grew 6.6% between 2001 and This growth is expected to continue. The Places to Grow Act, must be revised to reflect actual and expected growth of the Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes regions. Rail bed structural improvements would greatly enhance commercial freight service to manufacturers and industry along the line supporting economic growth, productivity and low emission transport of goods.

Peterborough, England is similar to Peterborough, Ontario. A new city vision, including Commuter Rail was developed in 1965 and they have seen dramatic sustainable growth. It now has a population of 168,000 (doubled since 1965) and over 13,700 people commute to London, England daily with 3.7 million annual rail users. Peterborough, England has also benefited by major employers relocating from London to benefit from Peterborough’s skilled workforce.

The new service - which has been committed to by the Federal Government has received the emphatic support of the following Municipal governments: Town of Markham Town of Whitby Region of Durham City of Peterborough City of Kawartha Lakes County of Peterborough Township of Cavan Monaghan Township of Smith Ennismore Lakefield Township of Douro Dummer Township of Otonabee South Monaghan

Transportation Tomorrow Survey Data Almost 42,000 people travel between the Peterborough- Kawartha Lakes area and the Toronto-Durham-Halton- Hamilton area each day, according to figures the Peterborough Examiner obtained from a preliminary provincial 2006 transportation study. That would be the target market for the planned Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail link. The Ministry of Transportation, 18 municipal governments, GO Transit and the Toronto Transit Commission conducted the survey of travel patterns.

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data 2006 Daily Person Trips Using GO Transit TorontoPeterboroughKawartha LakesTotal Toronto Peterborough Kawartha Lakes Total

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data 2006 Daily Person Trips Using Other Transit TorontoDurhamPeterboroughKawartha LakesTotal Toronto Durham Peterborough Kawartha Lakes Total

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data 2006 Daily Person Trips – Auto (including passengers) TorontoDurhamHaltonHamiltonPeterboroughKawartha Lakes Total Toronto Durham Halton Hamilton Peterborough Kawartha Lakes Total

Existing Weekday Travel Patterns in Area of Proposed Rail Line to Peterborough Based on Preliminary 2006 TTS Data 2006 Daily Person Trips – All Modes TorontoDurhamHaltonHamiltonPeterboroughKawartha Lakes Total Toronto Durham Halton Hamilton Peterborough Kawartha Lakes Total

In interpreting the previous tables, it appears there is currently just under 1000 person trips daily using public transit which would presumably benefit immediately from the rail line. However, the interesting projection will be what percentage of the 40,000 auto trips can be enticed to switch to transit. Even a small percentage would have a large impact on ridership.

2006 and 2001 Censuses Municipality The City of Markham (52.5%)169,642111,276 77,000 City of Whitby (20.5%)135,893112,802 36,698 City of Kawartha Lakes (7.0%)119,141115,833 69,179 (Includes Haliburton) Ajax-Pickering (16.9%)117,183100,248 52,346 Peterborough C&C (5.7%)116,626110, ,452 Total337,675658,485551,046

The Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor population has increased by 320,810 since the VIA cancelled service in This compares to a Barrie population of 130,000. This is almost double the population from the time VIA was operating its commuter rail service. The number of commuters has also grown significantly, jamming the high capacity 401 corridor. In perspective, the Station at Locust Hill serves Markham, Claremont Station services Pickering and Ajax, Myrtle Station is in Whitby and Pontypool is in the City of Kawartha Lakes. The City of Peterborough has set aside 10 acres for a new station and Wayside Power Facility.

In the planning horizon of the Places to Grow Act, there would be an additional 563,000 jobs created along the Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor. However, most of the jobs are located in York and Durham with very few in the City of Kawartha Lakes and the County of Peterborough. In fact, according to the report, Peterborough is not showing any job growth in the last ten years of the projections.

Historically, the highest density of employment has been in the central area of the City of Toronto (Planning District 1 or PD1). Over 16% of the employment in the GTA is located in this area. Future projections of employment suggest that the Toronto Central Area will still be the dominant employment centre, but that suburban municipalities will account for over 70% of the new employment growth to The City of Toronto from 2001 to 2031 is showing an increase in 200,000 jobs. Thus the demand for commuter travel to the centre of Toronto as well as to York Region from the Region East of Durham will intensify.

The 2020 Move Ontario Plan announced in June 2007, only included a small reference to the Peterborough- Toronto Rail Corridor. The 52 construction projects announced include 17 GO Transit commuter rail projects, of which 5 are new commuter lines. Improving the Peterborough-Toronto Rail Corridor from Union Station to Claremont would serve the same purpose as the report’s proposed Claremont station which would serve Ajax and Pickering as well as the proposed Pickering Airport site. Given the low additional cost of completing the upgrades through to Peterborough it is surprising that the entire project was not a part of the provinces 2020 Move Ontario Plan.

Census metropolitan areas Public transit percentage Sources: Statistics Canada, censuses of population, 1996 to Kingston (Ontario) Peterborough (Ontario) Oshawa (Ontario) Toronto (Ontario) Hamilton (Ontario) St. Catharines - Niagara (Ontario) Kitchener (Ontario) Brantford (Ontario) Guelph (Ontario) London (Ontario) Windsor (Ontario) Barrie (Ontario) Proportion of workers using public transit to get to work, census metropolitan areas, 1996, 2001 and 2006

Proportion of the median commuting distance and commuting distance of workers, census metropolitan areas, 2001 and 2006 Proportion of the median commuting distance and commuting distance of workers, census metropolitan areas, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census metropolitan areas Median commute distance Commuting distance Median commute distance Commuting distance Less than 5 km 5 to 14 km 15 to 24 km 25 km and over Less than 5 km 5 to 14 k m 15 to 24 k m 25 km and o ver KMpercentageKMpercentage Sources: Statistics Canada, censuses of population, 2001 and Kingston (Ontario) Peterborough (Ontario) Oshawa (Ontario) Toronto (Ontario) Hamilton (Ontario) St. Catharines - Niagara Kitchener (Ontario) Brantford (Ontario) Guelph (Ontario) London (Ontario) Windsor (Ontario) Barrie (Ontario)

The previous table shows that 30.8% of the workers in Oshawa travel 25 km and over to get to work. The commuting distance for Peterborough shows 16.8% travel more than 25 km. In Barrie, 35.2 % travel more than 25 km. Interestingly, 13% of Torontonians travel more than 25 km. to get to work.

Proportion of workers using a car to get to work, census metropolitan areas, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census metropolitan areas Car - As driversCar - As passengersTotal - Car users percentage Sources: Statistics Canada, censuses of population, 1996 to Kingston (Ontario) Peterborough (Ontario) Oshawa (Ontario) Toronto (Ontario) Hamilton (Ontario) St. Catharines - Niagara (Ontario) Kitchener (Ontario) Brantford (Ontario) Guelph (Ontario) London (Ontario) Windsor (Ontario) Barrie (Ontario)

Median commuting distance (in kilometres) traveled by workers in census metropolitan areas by period of construction of dwelling of residence, Canada, 2006

Ridership Estimates A number of ridership forecasts have been prepared for the Peterborough-Toronto service, in 1981 when it was announced VIA would discontinue the service and again in 1990 when the VIA service was discontinued permanently. In 1981, the then Ministry of Transportation and Communications estimated ridership for the Toronto Havelock service would be 500 commuters/day/direction by 1991 if GO Transit were to take over the service and continue with a single train. The IBI Group in 1990 estimated that the total demand on the Peterborough Line under private operation would be about 450 in 1990, 600 in 1995 and 750 by the year 2000, again based on one train per day.

These ridership estimates were based on the 1986 Census Place of Work/Place of Residence data where the rail patronage was estimated by calculating the number of commuters from each of the communities to be served and then factoring this by the percentage of people who would use the rail service. Rail mode splits of 30% for urbanized areas and 20% for non-urbanized areas were typically used. The estimates assumed that the service would be superior to regular GO Train service as it would have several amenities including full food and beverage services available at the stations.

The 2001 Census Place of Work/Place of Residence data showed that 9,205 people in Peterborough County and City alone are commuters. If this is factored into the formula used, then the total estimated demand just for eastern portion of the commuter line increases by over 50%. As a result, we estimated that the total demand on the Peterborough-Toronto commuter line would be at least 903 daily if two trains were used. The Transportation Tomorrow Survey from 2006 had 41,935 people traveling from Peterborough and the Kawartha Lakes to the GTA each day. If four trains were commissioned then the number of users could increase substantially with current users of GO from the area numbering 528 and commuters using other forms of transit being 451.

Therefore there are currently 979 individuals using transit daily to commute to the GTA more than was originally projected in the October report for ridership on the entire route. In the Lakeshore East corridor the estimation of diverted trips is quite complicated. While there are a number of people from north Whitby, Uxbridge and Scugog who currently use the Lakeshore East GO line who would switch to the Toronto-Peterborough service, many in this region would in fact be new transit users given the convenience as well as time and cost savings. This report proposes that there would be no off-peak train service to the Peterborough-Toronto rail stations to insure that the service operates without subsidy.

Almost 42,000 people travel between the Peterborough- Kawartha Lakes area and the Toronto-Durham-Halton- Hamilton area each day, according to figures obtained from a preliminary provincial 2006 transportation study. That would be the target market for the planned Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail link. The preliminary information from the survey shows 299 people travel to Toronto from Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes using GO Transit each day. There are 229 people going the other way. There are 232 people using other transit services to go to Toronto and Durham from Peterborough and Kawartha Lakes. There are 219 people going the other way. Thus 531 people are using transit to go to the GTA from Peterborough and the Kawartha Lakes and 448 come from the GTA using transit.

Therefore the base that should be considered for a reintroduced commuter rail service should be 979 riders per day from the Peterborough and Pontypool stations versus the 300 projected for the Barrie service from Barrie itself. When the additional riders from Myrtle, Claremont and Locust Hill are factored in, the 903 per day estimate from the October Commuter Rail Report was far below the actual usage expected.

Conclusions The material presented here further reinforces the viability of the Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail service. The plan is exciting because it will meet the present and future needs of the Eastern Greater Golden Horseshoe region along the established Havelock sub- route. While the original study suggested 2 trains daily in each direction, 4 trains daily in each direction can be easily justified and expected to run at capacity. That will be one of the items that needs to be examined by the joint federal-provincial implementation study. I trust that this additional information clears up any confusion as to the projected ridership along the Peterborough-Toronto commuter rail corridor. Dean Del Mastro – Member of Parliament, Peterborough

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