Environment and Security in Eastern Europe Aleh Cherp, Ph.D., Central European University Alexios Antypas, Ph.D., Central European University

Environment and Security Linkages Environment, Tensions, and Conflict Stability and Trust Through Environmental Cooperation Interaction Between Environmental and Security Policies and Measures Environment and Instability Aspects of Security

Environment, Tensions, and Conflict Environmental factors can aggravate existing tensions between and within states Conflict arises over scarce natural resources, or when distribution is unequal  Scarcity may be absolute or relative  Social processes through which resources are distributed must be included in the environment and security framework Violent conflict over resources is relatively rare, most tensions remain “sub-critical”  Sub-critical tensions bread hostility, distrust, and an unwillingness to co-operate

Stability and Trust through Environmental Co-operation Co-operation over critical shared resources such as water has proven to foster stability in inter- state relations Co-operation over low-tension issues (“no regrets” projects) can build trust  Especially appropriate for situations in which distrust and tension prevail Legal regimes create an atmosphere of predictability and dialogue, and co-operation in critical areas such as information sharing and early warning systems

Interaction between Environmental and Security Policies and Measures When elements of one policy area affects another:  Environmental impacts of peacetime military activities  Energy policy  Environmental policy integration in defence and foreign affairs policies poses significant opportunities

Environment and Instability Aspects of Security Trends that undermine social stability and therefore state stability  Rapid demographic change  Human health crises  Mass migration Environmental problems that undermine social institutions  Over-exploitation of resources → decline of rural economies  Environmental pollution → health problems, migration

Regional Context 845,000 km2 60 million inhabitants Wedged between “East” and “West” Conflicts, tensions, and transformations: Transnistria, “Orange Revolution”, Crimea, energy security issues

Security Issues in Eastern Europe

Geopolitical Context European Union interests include:  Europeanization outside of the EU accession process  “to make a particular contribution to stability and good governance in our immediate neighbourhood and to promote a ring of well-governed countries to the East of the European Union….”  EU-Ukraine Action Plan, harmonization of laws, continued democratization and co-operation  EU-Moldova Action Plan, co-operation in helping settle Transnistria conflict  Environment as priority to help “avoid conflicts over scarce resources.” Russian interests include:  Maintaining transit to and from Western and Central Europe  Protecting Russian minorities  Retaining political and economic influence

Economic and Demographic Indicators

Environmental Legacies and Challenges of Transition The effects of Chernobyl Soviet-era industrialization and environmental “hot spots” Military legacies of the Soviet- era Lack of attention to environmental issues and under-funding of state institutions Intensive use of natural resources Trade liberalization and consumerism Environmental Sustainability Index:  Belarus: 47 out of 146 countries  Moldova: 58 out of 146 countries  Ukraine: 108 out of 146 countries

Interaction between Environment and Security Factors

Water Resources and Key Ecosystems

Environmental Hazards with Security Implications

Key Environmental Issues with Security Implications in Ukraine Continued environmental and social consequences of Chernobyl Industrial hot spots  Concentrated in Eastern Ukraine Pesticide Stockpiles  100 large and 5000 small sites, 19,406 tons  tons of POPs Import of hazardous wastes  Illegal import from Hungary of over 25,000 tons Water management  Water deficient areas  Shared river basins  Bystroe Canal Black Sea and Sea of Azov  Sever Pollution  Collapse of fisheries Transboundary biodiversity and Protected Areas  2 transboundary biosphere reserves  Carpathian Convention

Security Issues with Environmental Implications in Ukraine Energy security  Heavy dependence on gas and oil imports from Russia  4 nuclear stations and large coal reserves  Oil and gas exploration on Black Sea and Sea of Azov shelves Melange  16,764 tons at 8 sites Other military sites  2 million tons at 184 depots Crimea  Land disputes  Potential disputes over oil and gas rights

Environment and Security Issues in Ukraine Water Management Land and Ecosystems Hazardous Sites and Activities TensionsBlack Sea, Azov, Dniester, other rivers Land disputes in Crimea Stockpiles of banned pesticides; weapons; Chernobyl issues; waste import Co-operationBlack Sea, Azov, Dniester, Pripyat, other rivers Polesye marshlands, Carpathians, border natural areas Chernobyl issues Interaction of E & S Policies and Measures Development of domestic energy sources Stockpiles of weapons and rocket fuel; Chernobyl issues Disruption of Institutions Drinking water quality & abundance Land degradationStockpiles of pesticides

Criteria for ENVSEC Interventions Give high priority to actions likely to build trust and foster mutual learning Attempt to address more than one Environment and Security theme in the same actions Avoid overlapping with other programmes Draw on the unique capacity of the ENVSEC Initiative to deal with complex multidimensional issues

Summary of Issues The geo-political position of Eastern Europe strongly affects the way security and environmental issues interact in the region EE does not experience outright conflict but rather tensions that can be exacerbated by unattended environmental problems or calmed by co-operation over the environment In the medium and long term the “East-West” divide, population decline, economic restructuring, and energy dependence will have the potential to heighten transboundary and internal tensions and will keep environment and security issues high on the political agenda

Thank you !