“It's the Demography Stupid” Ethnic Change and Immigration Restriction in England Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College web: sneps.net;

Source: Ipsos MORI, 'Attitudes to Immigration' (forthcoming). Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.

Response to Catholic Growth 1923: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee issues report entitled The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality 1932: 'We are losing some of the best of our race stock by migration and their place is being taken by those whom whatever their merits, are not Scottish' - novelist John Buchan at Parliament in November : the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee condemns Irish Catholics for displacing the 'native Scots population' from industrial Scotland and derided them as a 'compact community largely of alien origin' (Devine 2008)

Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

English Ethnic Nationalism Individualism Cultural Liberalism Integration/ Assimilation/ Boundary Shift Immigration and Minority Growth

Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of minorities in ward, white British only

Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of renters, among ward residents, white British only Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and Home Office 2010, 2011)

Minority Growth Matters more than East European Immigration for Opinion Minority changes at low-scale and levels at large-scale heighten white opposition Minority levels at low-scale reduce opposition White Other/E European share not associated with opposition to immigration Minorities: whether UK-born, English-speaking, social housing, employed, matters little. Mixed, Muslim, Caribbean – sporadic effects Contact and Habituation of native white population to the local presence of minorities, even if segregated/foreign-born/Muslim, seems key

Immigration and Immigration Opinion in the US & Canada since 1965 Source: Wilkes, Guppy & Farris 2007

Conclusion Minority change associated with more English ethnic nationalism Minority levels can mean less opposition: but requires residential integration Local contact with and habituation to minorities, rather than deep integration, reduces opposition to immigration Assimilation has historically reduced ethnic nationalism

Policy Options Encourage wide but gradual residential integration of minorities Managed migration, but also realism during a period of native-born ethnic change Housebuilding and refugee dispersal should aim at transient areas with some experience of diversity Diffuse rather than concentrated change is preferable

Source: BHPS ; UKLHLS

“It's the Demography Stupid” Ethnic Change and Immigration Restriction in England Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College web: sneps.net