Belarus: public sector development Dmitry Kolkin Advisor to the Minister of Economy

Belarus 2010: key figures “… Belarus achieved an average 7.5 percent annual growth in the ten years up to 2008, benefiting from its inherent strengths and favorable external conditions. High investment-to-GDP ratios and productivity gains from a well-educated and disciplined labor force were the main contributors to growth…..” IMF Source: National Statistics Committee, World Bank Area : 207,600 km 2 (ranked 85 th in the World) Population: 9,648,533 (ranked 88 th in the World) Capital: Minsk (1.84 million people); Population density: 49 per sq. km; Labour force: 4,5 million Unemployment rate: less than 1% ( ranked 5 th in the World ) Literacy: 99,6% GDP (PPP) per capita: $13,909 (ranked 88 th in the World) GDP growth: + 7,6% (ranked 25 th in the World) 2

GDP structure, % Source: National Statistics Committee Industry structure, % 3 Belarus 2010: key figures

4 - 70% of enterprises has state share in authorized funds - almost 60% of fixed assets belongs to state - every second employee is employed on public enterprises Source: Ministry of economy Belarus: public sector

5 The size of state sector is the largest among CIS countries and Eastern Partnership countries and it accounts for almost 70% of GDP Source: EBRD

6 Belarus: transition Indicators Till 2008 there weren’t any intention to use privatization as instrument of enterprise development. But since 2008 creation of 3Y privatization plans has been started, that helped privatization processes to be more consistent and transparent. Meanwhile small scale privatization is still considered as unused instrument of private sector growth. Source: EBRD

7 From 2008 Belarus has been doing consistent steps in price liberalization: price and trade restrictions on many goods were removed and reduction of list of minimum export prices was made. Since beginning of 2011 the government has regulated prices only on 27 products. From 1996 till 2008 there weren’t any changes in enterprise restructuring indicator, but in 2008 some significant steps was made. Belarus: transition Indicators Source: EBRD

8 Public sector: macroeconomic indicators Although major economic indicators has been remained at optimistic level we expect them to be less attractive during possible restructuring of state owned enterprises. Source: EBRD

9 Public sector: macroeconomic indicators Belarus: is # 3 in the world in terms of exporting of potash fertilizers, occupies 7% of the world tractors market, occupies 30% of the world market of heavy-duty dump truck, occupies 3% of the world cheese market. Source: EBRD

10 Conclusions:  Belarus has achieved high economic growth during past 15 years,  Economic model of the country in managing of state owned enterprises needs to be restructured for better performance,  With the help of privatization and FDI attraction we consider this restructuring to be run more efficiently,  PPP is one of the main factor of increasing corporate management in public enterprises,  Private sector input in GDP should be increased to the level that would allow Belarus to promote another economic growth driver…

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