Blair Greimann, Ph.D., P.E., Technical Service Center, Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group, Denver, CO Februrary 2015 www.usbr.gov/pmts/sediment Sediment.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Comparing statistical downscaling methods: From simple to complex

Advertisements

WHAT IS ELINK? Thermoflow, Inc.

“Assessing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation: Methods and Data” First Regional Training Workshop – Capacity Building Programme on the Economics of Adaptation.

1 Assiniboine River Water Demand and Water Supply Studies Prepared by : Bob Harrison, P. Eng. and Abul Kashem, P. Eng. Surface Water Management Section.

G.S. Karlovits, J.C. Adam, Washington State University 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping to Inform Land-use Management Decisions in an Altered Climate Muhammad Barik and Jennifer Adam Washington State University,

The Importance of Realistic Spatial Forcing in Understanding Hydroclimate Change-- Evaluation of Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin Hydrology.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Progress in Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios in Idaho Brandon C. Moore.

HEC-RAS US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center

Class project presentation Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529 Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability of 3 Layer Soil Moisture Estimates in the Colorado River.

Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA) University of Washington Constructing regional climate change scenarios.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

NOAA/NWS Water Supply Web Page

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Seethu Babu Marketa McGuire Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Water Supply Forecasting Method Michelle Stokes Hydrologist in Charge Colorado Basin River Forecast Center April 28,

Moving Forward after the Colorado River Basin Water Supply & Demand Study Urban Water Institute’s 21 st Annual Conference San Diego, CA August 14, 2014.

Green River Water Rights Distribution Model (MODSIM) Update By Division of Water Rights

Impact of Climate Change on Flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Hydraulic Routing in Rivers

Reclamation Mid-Term Operational Modeling Seasonal to Year-Two Colorado River Streamflow Prediction Workshop CBRFC March 21-22, 2011 Katrina Grantz, PhD.

Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) Salinity Projection Model October 20, 2004 Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Advisory Council.

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study NIDIS update February 24, 2011 Boulder, CO.

Hood River County Monthly Meeting Presentation Toni E Turner, M.S., P.E., Project Manager and Technical Lead.

Basic Hydrology & Hydraulics: DES 601

Impacts of hydrological variability and change on water resources Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Overview of the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Urban Water Institute 19 th Annual Water Policy Conference August 22-24, 2012 San Diego.

Input for the Bayesian Phylogenetic Workflow All Input values could be loaded as text file or typing directly. Only for the multifasta file is advised.

 Secretarial Order No establishes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, which focus on on-the-ground strategic conservation efforts at the landscape.

Hi Emily – This is set three of our detailed slides. We’ve taken a look at temperature for the San Diego county region. You can recognize the annual temperature.

WESTCAPS Basin Study Planning Meeting Water Resources Planning and Operations Support Group Technical Service Center, Denver, Colorado December 1-2, 2014,

Water in Colorado: Climate, Hydrology and Uses Dr. Gigi Richard Faculty Director, Water Center at CMU Professor, Geosciences River Cañon - Nestler Water.

Why Should New Mexico Dam Owners Care about Climate Change and Extreme Events Dagmar Llewellyn, Reclamation Albuquerque Area Office Presentation to the.

Application of a rule-based system for flash flood forecasting taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat basin EGU 2012, Vienna Session.

Overview of WEAP. Water Evaluation and Planning System WEAP A generic, object-oriented, programmable, integrated water resources management modelling.

Launch SpecE8 and React from GSS. You can use the chemical analyses in a GSS data sheet to set up and run SpecE8 and React calculations. Analysis → Launch…

New Mexico Rio Grande Water Operations Modeling: Creating a synthetic flow sequence representative of regional paleo-hydrology for alternatives analysis.

Where the Research Meets the Road: Climate Science, Uncertainties, and Knowledge Gaps First National Expert and Stakeholder Workshop on Water Infrastructure.

Appendix A: Calculations for Data Quality Assessment QC check statistics Precision calcs Bias calcs PM stats Reporting: quarterly and annual.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on Atbara flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios SIGMED and MEDFRIEND International Scientific Workshop Relations.

Reclamation Climate Variabilaity Activities March 28, 2014 Tucson, AZ.

T T03-01 Calculate Descriptive Statistics Purpose Allows the analyst to analyze quantitative data by summarizing it in sorted format, scattergram.

A significant amount of climate data are available: DETERMINING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS It can be time-consuming to manage and interpret.

Feng Zhang and Aris Georgakakos School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology Sample of Chart Subheading Goes Here Comparing.

1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Climate Models, and California Climate Change Impacts.

Preliminary Scoping Effort. Presentation Objectives Identify need for additional sources of future funding Provide background on how elements were identified.

Bioinformatics for biologists

Climate Change and Water Supply: Potential Hydrologic Consequences Guido Franco Technical Lead for Climate Change Research Public Interest Energy Research.

STREAM STABILITY STUDY FOR PIPELINES IN HIGH CONSEQUENCE AREAS By: Larry Blair, PE Eastern Sandoval County Arroyo Flood Control Authority (ESCAFCA) Sandoval.

Impacts of Landuse Management and Climate Change on Landslides Susceptibility over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State Muhammad Barik and Jennifer.

Overview of Downscaling Approach. Hybrid Delta Downscaling Method Performed for each VIC grid cell: Hist. Daily Timeseries Hist. Monthly Timeseries Historic.

Application of Climate Change research in CAP Planning activities Mohammed Mahmoud Colorado River Programs Central Arizona Project.

Sensitivity of Colorado Stream Flows to Climate Change Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Seattle City Light Climate Change Analysis 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group, UW Se-Yeun Lee 1, Alan F. Hamlet 2,1 Overview.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Greg Smith Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center January 25, 2011 Navajo.

Long-lead streamflow forecasts: 2. An approach based on ensemble climate forecasts Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Alan.F. Hamlet University of.

National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Interactive Forecast Program (IFP) CBRFC Open House August 18, 2010.

Claudia Borchert, City of Santa Fe Claudia Borchert, City of Santa Fe 2012 New Mexico Water Dialogue Thursday, January 12, 2012 Meeting Water Challenges.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah 11 The Hydrologic.

Spatial downscaling on gridded precipitation over India

Hydrology of Colorado Water

John McCartney CVEN 5454 Spring 2003

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Fig. 1 Area over which VIC simulated soil moisture has been spatially averaged. Blue shadded area represents contributing area above Sacramento at Bend.

HEC-RAS US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center

Gopal Bhatt1 and Lewis Linker2 1 Penn State, 2 US EPA

Fig. 1 Area over which VIC simulated soil moisture has been spatially averaged. Blue shadded area represents contributing area above Sacramento.

The Great Drought of the 16th Century,

Presentation transcript:

Blair Greimann, Ph.D., P.E., Technical Service Center, Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group, Denver, CO Februrary Sediment Modeling under a Changing Climate – Numerical Modeling Lab

Scenario Selection 2 There are 112 downscaled and bias corrected climate models. Select 5 representative climate change scenarios to reduce computational requirements on operational flow models. 75 th percentile 25 th percentile H1H2 H3 H4 H5 Modeling Input: Stream Flows

Scenario Selection: Climate Model ScenarioDescription H0Observed Data H1 Warmer Temperature Lower Precipitation H2 Warmer Temperature Higher Precipitation H3Higher Temperature Lower Precipitation H4Higher Temperature Higher Precipitation H5Central 3

Scenario Selection: Time Periods 4 Time Frame SpecificationsStartEndYears Observed Historic Time Frame Output Simulation Period BCSD Period Historic Base Time Frame Future Range Name Future 1 Base Time Frame Future 2 Base Time Frame Future 3 Base Time Frame Modeling Input: Stream Flows

5 Scenario Selection: Climate Model Climate scenario 50-yr hydrologic scenario

6 Modeling Input: Stream Flows Scenario Selection: Climate Model Climate scenario 50-yr hydrologic scenario

7 Modeling Input: Stream Flows Scenario Selection: Climate Model Climate scenario 50-yr hydrologic scenario

Sediment Scenario Selection ScenarioDescriptionFactor S0Observed Data1 S1Lower Sediment loads0.5 S2Higher Sediment loads2 8 naming convention: “H#_####_S1” (e.g. H1_2020_S1)

Matrix of Simulations 9 Flow Scenario Sediment Scenario S0S1S2 H0XXX H1X H2X H3X H4X H5X The scenarios were generated for the 2055 climate period The same matrix can be generated for the 2025 and 2085 climate periods

Modeling Input: Upstream Sediment Load 10 Rio Grande

Modeling Input: Upstream Sediment Load 11 Rio Grande

Modeling Input: Upstream Sediment Load 12 Rio Grande

Modeling Input: Tributary Flow 13 Rio Grande Rio Grande at San Acacia has an annual flow of 5.5E+05 acre-ft Simulated area Reclamation (2011). One-Dimensional Modeling and Indicator Results for the Middle Rio Grande, Technical Report No. SRH , Prepared for Middle Rio Grande Project, New Mexico, Upper Colorado Region.

Modeling Input: Lateral Sediment Load 14 Rio Grande Reclamation (2011). One-Dimensional Modeling and Indicator Results for the Middle Rio Grande, Technical Report No. SRH , Prepared for Middle Rio Grande Project, New Mexico, Upper Colorado Region. Simulated area Rio Grande at San Acacia has an approximate annual load of 2000 acre-ft/yr

Modeling Input: Lateral Sediment Load 15 Rio Grande Reclamation (2011). One-Dimensional Modeling and Indicator Results for the Middle Rio Grande, Technical Report No. SRH , Prepared for Middle Rio Grande Project, New Mexico, Upper Colorado Region. Simulated area

Simulation procedure 1.Open “Job_control_Rio.xlsm” 2.Enter path and file name of excel sheets containing the necessary information for each scenario 3.Enter input file names to be created 4.Run macro “create input files” 5.Go to the simulation directory (“runs”) and run files individually or run batch file “batch_curdir_script.vbs” which will run all *.srh files in that directory 16

Additional Sediment Scenario Generation 1.Copy S0.xlsm to S#.xlsm 2.Change upstream sediment factor in sheet “SedimentDischarge” 3.Change Arroyo factor in sheet “LateralSediment” 4.Change size distribution in Arroyo size distribution in “LateralSediment” 5.Add additional scenario to “job_control_Rio.xlsm” and recreate input files 17

Result Display Procedure 1.For each simulation: a)Open each excel file corresponding to simulation id (e.g. “RioGrande SRH-1D results H0_2055_S0.xlsm”) b)Go to “data” sheet and run macro “import file” c)Select the file *OUT_profile.dat, where * is the simulation name 2.Open the summary Excel file to plot results. All linked files should be open as well if you want data updated. 18