1 The RobOff framework and software: analysis of alternative land-use options and conservation actions Federico M. Pouzols and Atte Moilanen Conservation Biology Informatics Group Dept. of Biosciences, Univ. Of Helsinki

2 Framework and software for decision-making support Emphasizes: uncertain responses of biodiversity features over time – to different actions conservation / development / land-use – in different environments (habitats, etc.) – in a robust manner Multi-action allocation problem: best portfolio of actions (amounts of money or area) 2 What RobOff is

3 A tool for optimal allocation of conservation resources (with emphasis on time and uncertainty) An scenario tool Learning & teaching about balance between actions Robust Offsetting, Habitat Restoration, Maintenance and Management Analysis of alternative land-use options 3 What RobOff is (2)

4 Spatial planning, GIS, maps Population Viability Analysis, stochastic models Simulation / dynamics Connectivity, corridors, etc. But can use / can be combined with 4 What RobOff is not

5 Multiple actions and habitats (and features/species) Uncertainty => robust decisions Time preference (discounting) – dual: ecological & economic Different environments with specific weights Different cost models Comparison of alternative actions Simple and score features RobOff general features

6 Basic input: responses x-axis: time frame (planning horizon) y-axis: occurrence value (abundance/representation of a species, condition of a habitat, amount of ecosystem service provided, economic value, human well-being, employment, etc.) How biodiversity features (e.g. species, habitat) respond to actions (per unit of area) Forest: business as usual Forest: build dam -> inundate Forest: restore

7 Responses Specific responses over time to different actions in different habitat types or environments Uncertain, discrete-time

8 Conceptual model: first look

9 Species – Abundance, probability of occurrence, etc. Guilds Habitat quality / suitability Habitat-hectares Eggs saved from predators Ecosystem services Socio-cultural factors (employment, aesthetics, culture, history etc.) Important attributes: weight, benefit function Feature

10 Most basic: habitat Other factors to split/merge habitats into different environments: – Condition / status – Threats – Ownership – Different degrees of connectivity – Administrative / logistic aspects Sites Important attributes: total area, weight Environment

11 Or intervention, policy, group of interventions, etc. Development or conservation Action “do nothing” always implicit + multiple alternatives, e.g.: – Development: build, inundate, zone for construction, build dam / block upstream migration – Restore – Educate local community – Educate + no take restriction (bundle) – Set aside mature forest – Set aside clear-cut – Trap and transfer migrating juveniles Important attributes: cost, area available/feasible Action

12 Can be specific to a “feature-action-environment” Same responses can be used for different features in different environments (if it makes sense) Different approaches to get responses: – Models / simulators – Evidence bases – Experts In practice: table or csv file with – 3 columns: avg., upper, and lower envelopes – 1 row per time step (discrete-time series) Response

13 Analysis of uncertainty of conservation outcomes Analysis of the time perspective – Time preference, discounting, intergenerational equity Comparison of different intervention scenarios Reliability of biodiversity offsets. Offsetability Optimal biodiversity offsetting Optimal division of resources between actions Balance alternative land-use options Extraction of optimal area targets Applications / analysis types

14 Comments Broad applicability: – conservation planning, habitat management, restoration, biodiversity offsetting, land-use planning… Simplicity: uncertain responses = 3 columns of values Just gathering info and “thinking about it” within this framework helps clarifying problems Flexibility: – Example: a same species/feature can be entered multiple times – Normal (simple) features and scores 14

15 RobOff Software + manual + papers

16 Software: – Windows 32/64 bits and GNU/Linux Web site, manual, teaching material… Material and resources