MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 1 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Systemic Foresight Methodology Dr. Ozcan Saritas

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 2 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Presentation Outline  Evolution of the Foresight practice  Changing nature of situations & increasing complexity  Challenges for Foresight  Need for Systemic Foresight approaches – with the introduction of the ideas of systems thinking

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 3 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest early foresight - pre ’60s  The existence of human on the earth surface: The act of anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic  16 th to 18 th centuries: To improve decision making and public debate and to anticipate long-term trends and long- term implications of short-term decisions. Wide scope & wide array of issues due to increasing complexity of societies  19 th century: The future of capitalist economies by classical political economists. Following the industrial revolution: Fragmentation of social studies - more focused and short term orientation of social sciences  ‘50s: The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators, and the methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact) were established. First computer simulation studies were becoming well-known

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 4 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Institutional Foresight - ’60s to present  ‘60s: Narrowly focused forecasting activities – the probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the future  ‘70s: Change in the understanding of forecasting due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of societies and economies (e.g. unpredicted oil shocks in the ‘70s)  ‘80s: Multiple futures thinking, participatory activities, where both processes (i.e. networks, tacit outcomes) and products (i.e. codified outputs) were given emphasis

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 5 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight - ’90s  Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry and other organisations  The key elements of Foresight in the 1990s: –S&T is central focus –Systematic process –Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning –S&T in relation to economic and social developments  “Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 6 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight s  Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing concerns on social aspects due to: The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) The development of service economies. Considerable portions of economic activity, employment and output have started taking place in service sectors of the economy Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 7 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest –“the application of ‘systematic’, ‘participatory’, ‘future-intelligence- gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process’ to ‘informing present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions’” Five essential elements of Foresight Miles and Keenan (2002)

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 8 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight – 2010s? Policy contexts and challenges The new global context  Increased financial, trade and investment flows  Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies  New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights  New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services  Global value chains and production networks

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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 10 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Shift from government to governance  Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ state –Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights –Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation –Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework –Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources  The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 11 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight New Foresight landscape

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 12 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight

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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 14 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Health and social services system  Understanding of the interdependencies and dynamics of the health and social services system Interdependency of sub-systems in the welfare system

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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 16 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Implications for Foresight practice  Nature of situations have become more complex and uncertain  Traditional method-driven “systematic” Foresight practice is not sufficient to deal with these situations  Introduction of thought experiments for understanding, appreciation and modelling  Need for “Systemic Foresight” approaches

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 17 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest System  System –“A set of elements connected together which form a whole, this showing the properties which are properties of the whole, rather than properties of its component parts” (Checkland, 1981, p.4).  Systems Thinking: Viewing ‘events’ as a system and/or part of larger systems

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 18 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest The effect of one or more system elements on the properties or on the behaviour of the other(s) Due to interrelatedness and interdependency between system elements, systems have some characteristics or behavioural patterns that cannot be exhibited by any of its subsets Causality The whole is more than the sum of its parts The parts cannot be considered in isolation from the whole The behaviour of the system cannot be understood independent from its context Holism The grouping or arrangement of systems according to their higher and lower influence and coverage levels (e.g. upper level systems and sub- systems or nested systems). Systems exist as parts of larger wholes, while they themselves provide organisation to their own sub-systems Hierarchy Systems transform themselves continuously and therefore are dynamic This explains an iterative, dynamic and non-linear process Two types of continuity (i) Continuity of looped action sequence (ii) The recursion of the looped action sequence in time Continuity

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 19 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest  Systemic understanding –Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand  Systems synthesis and modelling –The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world  Systemic analysis and Selection –Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future  System transformation –Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for a change programme  Systemic action –Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations Thought experiments Systemic Foresight Methodology

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 20 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Understanding context, content & process of Foresight Social system Technological system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 21 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Questions for SFM Science & Ecology Technology & Economics Socioeconomics Politics & Values What is possible? What is desirable? What is feasible? Systemic Foresight

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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 23 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest  Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’  Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem  Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems  SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’, which is characterised by subjective opinion  SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and involvement Conclusions

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 24 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest End of presentation.. Dr. Ozcan Saritas