# 1 CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCE MODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP) N. SCOTT URQUHART SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

# 2 TODAYTODAY  EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA)  CSU’s RESPONSE = STARMAP  EXPANSION ON PROJECT #4  = LEARNING MATERIALS  EXAMPLES OF TECHNIQUES

# 3 EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA)  CONTENT REQUIREMENTS  RESEARCH IN STATISTICS DIRECTED TOWARD USING, IN PART, DATA GATHERED BY PROBABILITY SURVEYS OF THE “EMAP-SORT.”  TRAINING OF “FUTURE GENERATIONS” OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS  OUTREACH TO THE STATES and TRIBES  ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS

# 4 EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA) - continued  MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENT  “… EACH OF THE TWO PROGRAMS ESTABLISHED WILL INVOLVE COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AT MULTIPLE, GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSE SITES.”  CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN TWO PROGRAMS  CSU and OSU SUBMITTED A PAIR OF COORDINATED PROPOSALS

# 5 EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA) - continued III  THE TWO PROGRAMS:  DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED SURVEY METHODOLOGY OSU  SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING, INCORPORATING HIERARCHICAL SURVEY DESIGN, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELING CSU  CHECK ON THE 

# 6 RESPONSE to RFA from CSU  INSTITUTIONS:  COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY STATISTICS NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB FOREST SCIENCE BIORESOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING  OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (PROGRAM 1, too)  SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER RESEARCH PROJECT  WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, INC

# 7 WHO IS INVOLVED? Jay Breidt Richard Davis Jennifer Hoeting Hari Iyer Scott Urquhart Dave Theobald - Natural Resources Ecology Lab Robin Reich - Forest Science Jim Loftis - Bioresources Engineering Collaborators at OSU, SCCWRP, WQTI

# 8 CSU PROPOSAL - APPROACH  TAKE EXISTING SETS OF  PROBABILITY &  NON-PROBABILITY DATA  START WORKING WITH THE DATA WITH A PERSPECTIVE OF DRAWING INFERENCES IDENTIFY ISSUES WE DON’T KNOW HOW TO HANDLE HAVE POST-DOCS AND PRE-DOCTORAL STUDENTS CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THESE TOPICS

# 9 WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT “AQUATIC RESOURCES”?  THEY ARE THINGS LIKE  STREAMS  RIVERS  WETLANDS  LAKES & PONDS  ESTUARIES  PRAIRIE POTHOLES  NEAR COASTAL OCEANIC WATERS

# 10 WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’ “AQUATIC RESOURCES”? CONTINUED  FOR MOST AQUATIC RESOURCES,  THERE ARE MANY “SMALL” ONES  PROGRESSIVELY FEWER AS THEY GET BIGGER  INTEREST, BIOLOGICAL & SOCIETAL, TENDS TO STAY CONSTANT OR EVEN INCREASE WITH SIZE  SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WOULD SELECT MOSTLY “SMALL” ONES, FEW “BIG” ONES.  IMPLICATION: UNEQUAL PROBABILITY SAMPLING

# 11 WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’ “AQUATIC RESOURCES”? CONTINUED II  SPATIAL STATISTICS TENDS TO FOCUS ON TWO-DIMENSIONAL SPACE  STREAMS AND RIVERS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT TO ONE-DIMENSIONAL OBJECTS IN TWO-SPACE  BUT MUCH LANDSCAPE INFORMATION IS COMPLETE COVERAGE IN TWO-SPACE  CHALLENGE:  MERGE THESE PERSPECTIVES

# 12 FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES  STATES AND TRIBES MUST REPORT ON THE CONDITION OF ALL “WATERS” UNDER THEIR JURISTICTION  A REQUIREMENT OF SECTION 305b OF THE CLEAN WATER ACT  RESULTS IN BIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS  STARTING IN 2002 THE RECOMMENDED STANDARDS WILL CHANGE TO BEING BASED ON PROBABILITY SAMPLING  OUTREACH PROJECT OPPORTUNITY!

# 13 CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT  1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA  2. LOCAL INFERENCE  3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS  4. OUTREACH  5. ADMINISTRATION/COORDINATION

# 14 CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED  1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA  FROM SURVEYS TO REMOTELY SENSED  POSSIBLY INCLUDING INFORMATION FROM “HAND-PICKED”SITES  JENNIFER HOETING DAVIS, BREIDT, REICH, STEVENS (OSU), WEISBERG (SCCWRP), LEECASTER (INL)

# 15 CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED  2. LOCAL INFERENCE  SMALL AREA EST’M + DECONVOLUTION  JAY BREIDT DAVIS, HOETING, GITELMAN (OSU)

# 16 CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED II  3. AQUATIC INDICATORS  DEVELOPING DATA TO USE IN SPATIAL ANALYSES LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY REGIONAL TAXONOMIC RICHNESS  DAVE THEOBALD, NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB URQUHART, RITTER (SCCWRP)

# 17 CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED III  OUTREACH  “PROPOSALS SHOULD SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS THE EXTENSION OF EXPERTISE ON DESIGN AND ANALYSIS TO STATES AND TRIBES”  HARI IYER & NSU PREPARED THIS PART OF THE CSU RESPONSE DAVIS, REICH, JIM LOFTIS (BIORESOURCES ENGINEERING), STEPHEN JOHNSON (WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY)

# 18 CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT CONTINUED III  5. ADMINISTRATION  INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION  URQUHART & DAVIS STEVENS (OSU) AQUATIC SUPPORT: HERLIHY & HUGHES (OSU)

# 19 CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIES APPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELS  POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS2.5  DOCTORAL STUDENTS2  FACULTY TIME~ 1 FTE (12M)  OTHER  SUBCONTRACT TO OSU~ $120K  COMPUTING EQUIPMENT - ONE TIME =$20K  SUPPORT/TRAVELAMPLE

# 20 OSU COMPANION PROPOSAL  SIMILARILY STRUCTURED  MAJOR DIFFERENCE = FOCUS  DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED  OSU SUBCONTRACT TO CSU THE SAME SCALE AS CSU SUBCONTRACT TO OSU  BOTH PROGRAMS HAVE OTHER SUBCONTRACTORS THE FIRST YEAR

# 21 DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE  DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST  CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF IT CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT WITH SPATIAL BALANCE CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL” LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT

# 22 DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE CONTINUED  IF DISCIPLINES LACK TOOLS, SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THEM  STATISTICS INCLUDED EXAMPLE: EXTEND CONCEPTS OF SAMPLING FROM FINITE POPULATION TO SPATIALLY CONTINUOUS POPULATIONS NATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT (~ $1M/YEAR) UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PAST 5 YEARS NOW TO BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO TWO PROGRAMS UNDER DISCUSSION HERE

# 23 FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES CONTINUED  PROJECT # 4 WILL HELP  IDENTIFY NEEDED SKILLS IN THE STATES & TRIBES  DEVELOP THE NEEDED SKILLS  IF POSSIBLE, WE HOPE TO TRANSMIT THE LEARNING MATERIALS IN WEB-COMPATIBLE DOCUMENTS  RECORDED ON A CD ROM USABLE AT ANY REMOTE SITE

# 24 MORE ON LEARNING TOOLS  AN EXPANSION ON PROJECT 4: