Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System.

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Presentation transcript:

Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System

POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System POAMA-2 POAMA-1.5 POAMA Hind-casts 2011 Operational Products & docs Applications System Re-analyses Hind-casts Operational Products and doc Applications System Development Re-analyses Hind-casts Operational Products & Doc Applications

Major improvements POAMA-1.5 New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system Comprehensive hind-cast set ( , 10 member ensemble each month) - 3 members done Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling) Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available) POAMA-2 New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS) New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional) POAMA-3 New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM,..) Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere) Greenhouse gases New ACCESS coupled assimilation system

Results POAMA-1.5B So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from Real-time forecasts in next 2 months (Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI) Summary of work of many from BMRC

P15b P15a P1 Persistence P15b P15a P1 Persistence Produced by Guomin Wang NINO 3 SSTA forecasts

P15b P15a P1 Persistence Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index Produced by Guomin Wang

POAMA15B members mean Skill at lead=5 Dashed: persistence Produced by Guomin Wang

SST Anomaly Correlation POAMA-1POAMA month 3 month 5 month Produced by Guomin Wang

MAM forecasts Winner POAMA Loser SVD Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A) Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

SON Forecasts Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4) Loser SVD-calib Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)

1997 OBS 2002 SST anomaly predicted by POAMA 1.5a at LT vs 2002 SST forecasts Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts Obs Forecast - Lead 3 Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

Intra-Seasonal Forecasts Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere Stored daily data Can start looking at weekly time scales Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction

Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation (by Debbie Hudson) ( ) KEY: persistence p15a p15b 0.5

Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram Forecasts starting 1st March day forecasts Light Blue - obs Other colours - ensembles Produced by Harun Rashid

Summary Significant improvement in SST skill levels Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ? Range of new products Seasonal and Weekly forecast Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon Available externally - openDAP server Exiting year ahead !!