An evaluation of NFL team drafting performance ( ) Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University Statistical Sports Consulting Thanks to Jim Curro (data entry), Brian Chezum (discussion) 1(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Background NFL Draft Value Pick Chart (VPC) “Created” by Jimmy Johnson c. 1994(?) Loser’s Curse (2005, 2010) Values of players based upon 2 nd contract 2(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Similar work Revised versions of the VPC Pro Football Reference NFL Draft FL_Draft_Trade_Value_Chartjsp 3(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

From The Draft by Pete Williams (2006, St. Martin's Press) [Billy] Beane's philosophies were chronicled in the best-selling book "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. [Rich] McKay [of the Atlanta Falcons] enjoyed the work of Lewis, a fellow Princeton graduate, and admired Beane for going against the grain of the rest of the league. At the same time McKay saw no application to football.. Emphasis is mine 4(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Goals Value draft picks based upon on-field performance Common metric all positions – Limiting – Reasonable? 5(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Data All Picks from Focus on 1 st 256 (2010 draft had 255 selections) Source: Source: measures of players performance 6(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Variables Demographics Year Selected, Round, Team making selection, Player Name, Position, College Selected From Performance (General) Last Year in NFL, Number of 1 st Team All Pro Selection, Pro Bowl Selections, Games Started, Games Played, Career Approximate Value* 7(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Variables Performance Specific – QB Passes Completed, Passes Attempted, Total Passing Yards, Total Passing TDs, Total Interceptions Thrown, Performance Specific – RB Rush Attempts, Rush Yds, Rush TDs, Performance Specific – Receivers Receptions, Receiving Yds, Receiving TD Performance Specific – Defense Tackles, INT, Sacks 8(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Basics N=2853 Position Breakdown DB K KR LB QB RB TE WR DL OL (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Draft Picks by Year Draft n= Draft n=256 10(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NFL Value Pick Chart 11(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Approach Non-parametric Smooth function LOESS in R, degree=2, span =0.5 12(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

GENERAL PERFORMANCE MEASURES 13(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Games Played v. Selection 14(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Games Started v. Selection 15(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NFL Value Pick Chart 16(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Pro Bowl v Selection 17(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Probability of Pro Bowl 18(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

All Pro 1 st Team v Selection 19(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Career Approximate Value Source: Pro-football-reference.com 20(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

SPECIFIC PERFORMANCE MEASURES 21(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

QUARTERBACKS 22(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

QB’s – Passing Yards 23(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

QBs – Passing TDs 24(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

QBs- Passes Completed 25(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NFL Value Pick Chart 26(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

RUNNING BACKS 27(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

RB’s Rushing Yards 28(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

RBs -- Rushing TDs 29(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NFL Value Pick Chart 30(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

WIDE RECEIVERS 31(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

WRs Receptions 32(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

WRs – Receiving Yards 33(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

WRs Receiving TDs 34(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NFL Value Pick Chart 35(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

TIGHT ENDS 36(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

TE’s –Receiving Yards 37(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

TE’s – Receiving TD’s 38(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NFL Value Pick Chart 39(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

OFFENSIVE LINEMAN 40(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

41(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

DEFENSIVE PLAYERS 42(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

DL’s-- Sacks 43(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

DL’s -- Tackles 44(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

LB’s -- Tackles 45(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

LB’s -- Interceptions 46(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

DB’s -- Interceptions 47(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Summary Current VPC seems not to agree with performance based metrics/decline of VPC too steep Metrics (GS, CarAV, G, Position metric – {LB Ints, QB’s} ) seem to have similar pattern Pro Bowl metrics seem to be steeper Bumps likely due to samples size (QB’s, TE’s) ?? GS vs GS + PB – GS simpler – GS more similar to position level performance 48(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Games Started as Value (Equal Sum) 49(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Games Started by Offensive Position 50(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Games Started by Defensive Position 51(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Limitations Changes over time Active players Edge behavior/Monotonicity Other revenue sources (jerseys, tickets, etc.) Value on getting need 52(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance M. Schuckers (to appear, 2011?) Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 53(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

BEST/WORST PICKS ( ) 54(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Assessing an Individual Pick Performance based upon Value over Expectation Z-score for each pick GS=Games Started M GS = Predicted Games Started from Loess S GS = Smoothed Standard Deviation from Raw Mean 55(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

SD(GS) vs Selection 56(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Evaluation of Teams Only players through Selection 256 Couple of Methods: 1.Sum of Z-scores over all years ( ) 2.Median of Yearly Sum ( ) 3.Best Single Drafts by Sum ( ) 57(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

GS by Year (mean GS=36.5) 58 Draft Year Total Games Played Players Still ActiveSum Z (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Win Pct ( ) Best: Denver0.648 Green Bay0.642 Pittsburgh0.623 New England0.608 Kansas City0.580 Worst: Browns0.320 Cardinals0.341 Detroit0.381 Cincinnati0.386 New Orleans (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

60(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Total Standardized Draft Quality Best Green Bay22.83 Titans18.41 Pittsburgh17.46 Tampa Bay11.92 Colts11.01 Worst San Diego New Orleans Philadelphia Washington-9.90 Chicago (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

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63(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Median Yearly Standardized GS Best: Green Bay3.06 Pittsburgh1.88 Titans1.30 Miami1.19 Detroit1.15 Worst: Kansas City-2.40 Cincinnati-2.01 San Diego-1.97 New Orleans-1.81 New England (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

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Evaluation of Teams 66(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

5 Best/Worst NFL Drafts Best Dallas 1993 Titans 1991 Kansas City 1996 Pittsburgh 1996 New England 1995 Worst Browns 2000 Detroit 1997 Philadelphia 1992 Dallas (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Best: Dallas 1993 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Kevin Williams WR Darrin Smith LB Mike Middleton DB Derrick Lassic RB Ron Stone G Barry Minter LB Brock Marion DB Dave Thomas DB Reggie Givens LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Best: Titans 1991 (picks less than 256) Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Mike Dumas DB Darryll Lewis DB John Flannery G Steve Jackson DB Kevin Donnalley G David Rocker DT Marcus Robertson DB Gary Wellman WR Kyle Freeman LB Gary Brown RB Shawn Jefferson WR (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Worst: Browns 2000 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Courtney Brown DE Dennis Northcutt WR Travis Prentice RB JaJuan Dawson WR Lewis Sanders DB Aaron Shea TE Anthony Malbrough DB Lamar Chapman DB Spergon Wynn QB Brad Bedell T Manuia Savea G Eric Chandler DE Rashidi Barnes DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Worst: Detroit 1997 Rnd Pick X Pos GS GS.z Bryant Westbrook DB Juan Roque T Kevin Abrams DB Matt Russell LB Pete Chryplewicz TE Duane Ashman DE Tony Ramirez T Terry Battle RB Marcus Harris WR Richard Jordan LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

10 Best Value Draft Picks ( ) Year Rnd Pick Tm Name Pos GS GS.z DEN Tom Nalen C GNB Adam Timmerman G ATL Todd McClure C IND Hunter Smith P HOU Shawn Jefferson WR NWE David Dixon G TAM Marty Carter DB PIT Carlos Emmons LB DAL Brock Marion DB NYJ Jason Ferguson DT (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

10 Worst Value Draft Picks ( ) Year Rnd Pick Tm Name Pos GS GS.z GNB Jamal Reynolds DE IND Trev Alberts LB PIT Huey Richardson LB CIN Ki-Jana Carter RB MIA Yatil Green WR PHO Ernest Dye T IND Steve Emtman DE CIN Akili Smith QB SEA Dan McGwire QB ATL Michael Booker DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Conclusions Big Idea: New VPC based upon past player performance Metric is Career Games Started Evaluation Draft Performance Directly project value of current player for draft pick 74(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NHL – Games Played 75(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

NBA Total Minutes(left), Games Played (right) 76(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Best: Kansas City 1996 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Jerome Woods DB Reggie Tongue DB John Browning DT Donnie Edwards LB Joe Horn WR Dietrich Jells WR Ben Lynch C Jeff Smith C Darrell Williams DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Best: Pittsburgh 1996 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Jamain Stephens T Steve Conley LB Jon Witman RB Earl Holmes LB Jahine Arnold WR Israel Raybon DE Orpheus Roye DT Spence Fischer QB Carlos Emmons LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Best: New England 1995 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Ty Law DB Ted Johnson LB Curtis Martin RB Jimmy Hitchcock DB Dave Wohlabaugh C Dino Philyaw RB Carlos Yancy DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Worst: Philadelphia Siran Stacy RB Tommy Jeter DT Tony Brooks RB Casey Weldon QB Corey Barlow DB Jeff Sydner WR William Boatwright G Chuck Bullough LB Ephesians Bartley LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Worst: Dallas 1995 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Sherman Williams RB Kendell Watkins TE Shane Hannah G Charlie Williams DB Eric Bjornson TE Alundis Brice DB Linc Harden LB Edward Hervey WR Dana Howard LB Oscar Sturgis DE (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

Worst: Washington 1992 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Desmond Howard WR Shane Collins DE Paul Siever G Chris Hakel QB Ray Rowe TE Calvin Holmes DB Darryl Moore G Boone Powell LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011