Violence, Governance, Development Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa CCD Ghana/SOAS.

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Presentation transcript:

Violence, Governance, Development Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa CCD Ghana/SOAS

CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?

What we’ll (try to) cover Analytical Links Trends Violence and Development I Violence and Development II

TRENDS, LEVELS, CLASSIFICATION

Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM

Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas

Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006

Post-war violence problem The El Salvador issue South Africa, Ethiopia, Angola… Loser’s peace (USA); victor’s peace (Spain); pacified peace (Liberia); divided peace (Afghanistan) What are the determinants of variation in post-war violence?

VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT I

Grievance Growth (5 years before onset) Repression (elections, press freedom, etc) Inequality (Gini coefficient) Ethnicity (ELF)

Greed Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP) Rascals (% of year old males in population) Education (number of years average schooling)

How to overcome constraints on collective action Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals Coercion Norms & ideology Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)

Friendly Fire? Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique Conclusions not justified by findings Might be published in an IR journal but not in a 3 rd rate economics journal.

VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT II

POST-CONFLICT AID

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

Aid volatility coefficient From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper