MINI-JSC October Boulder Jim Hurrell and Martin Visbeck Co-Chairs, International CLIVAR SSG Strategy and Evolution of CLIVAR

MINI-JSC October Boulder Mission To observe, simulate and predict changes in Earth’s climate system with a focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Copyrigh t NASA

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLIVAR – A Global View

MINI-JSC October Boulder

MINI-JSC October Boulder Questions, Issues: o What research should be the focus of an “ocean- atmosphere” project? Strategy and Evolution of SSG-18 Grand Challenges as “banners” for WCRP science: o How are they defined? o Which ones should we propose? o Is it time to “downsize” CLIVAR? If so, where do some current (broader) activities fit in the restructured WCRP? o Is it time to change the name of CLIVAR? Pros and cons? o How to ensure needed interactions/partnerships (across WCRP, IGBP, WWRP, ESSP, etc.) in a restructured WCRP? o How to ensure critical and effective interfaces for regional programs (e.g., VACS, VAMOS, AAMP, etc.)?

MINI-JSC October Boulder Seven CLIVAR Research Imperatives Top priorities of CLIVAR panels and working groups, with metrics and specific deliverables, for ~5 years Developed and evolving around several criteria; scientific importance; opportunity to make considerable progress; benefit from international coordination Imperatives map across: CLIVAR panels and working groups WCRP and other international research programs They help inform ongoing discussion on future evolution of ocean-atmosphere activity in WCRP

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLIVAR/WCRP Imperatives`3xzu Anthropogenic Climate Change Natural variability versus forced change Climate sensitivity and feedbacks Regional phenomena (e.g., ENSO, AMOC, …) Extremes CMIP# Climate Engineering (GEOENGINEERING) Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Determine predictability Mechanisms of variability (AMO, PDV, …) Role of oceans Adequacy of observing system Coupled Initialization Quantifying prediction uncertainty Building pan-WCRP links Intra-to-Seasonal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Monsoons (and ENSO, TAV, …) ISV/MJO Quantifying prediction uncertainty Building pan-WCRP and WWRP links CHFP

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLIVAR/WCRP Imperatives Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs Analysis and Evaluation “Climate Process Teams” (process studies) Building links pan-WCRP and IGBP Model-Data comparisons Capacity Building Summer schools and topical workshops Expert training Call for panel membership Data Synthesis and Analysis Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Systems Links – carbon, biogeochemistry, marine-ecosystems Ocean Observing System Development, implementation and system design Advocacy for sustained observations IGBP links for Carbon, Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLIVAR Imperative map across Panels

MINI-JSC October Boulder Future WCRP Structure (don’t use)

MINI-JSC October Boulder CliC CLIVAR GEWEX Cryosphere Note the overlaps between the projects. The new WCRP Land SPARC Note the extension to more than two domains Ocean Tropo- Strato- sphere sphere

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLIMAR (Climate variability and predictability: Marine and Atmospheric Research) CLIMAI (CLImate variability and predictability: Marine - Atmosphere Interactions) CLIMAP (CLImate variability and predictability: Marine - Atmosphere Processes) CLIMAPP (CLImate variability: Marine - Atmosphere Processes and Predictability) CLIMO (ClIMate and Oceans) OCLIVAR (Ocean CLImate VARiability and predictability)

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLAOI (CLimate variability and predictability focused on Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions) CLAO (Climate variability and predictability focused on Atmosphere-Ocean) AOCLIP (Atmosphere-Ocean CLImate and Predictability) AOCLIPP (Atmosphere-Ocean CLImate Processes and Predictability) AOCLIPPER (Atmosphere-Ocean CLImate Processes, Predictability and Exchange Research) MARCLIM (MARine and Atmospheric Research on Climate)

MINI-JSC October Boulder MARCLIV (MARine and Atmospheric Research on Climate Variability) MARC2 (Marine and Atmospheric Research on Climate Change) PHYCOAR (PHYsical Climate: Ocean and Atmospheric Research) OACSYS (Ocean-Atmosphere Climate SYStem research) CLOCAT (CLimate of the OCean and ATmosphere) CLIOCAT (CLimate Interactions of the OCean and ATmosphere)

MINI-JSC October Boulder

MINI-JSC October Boulder CLIMAR Arctic Ocean Implementation Panel Task Force on Decadal Predictability

MINI-JSC October Boulder SSG-18: Much CLIVAR science falls under “ocean-atmosphere”  Ocean basin panels, GSOP, WGOMD  Ocean observing system (partnership with GOOS/IOC, JCOMM, etc.)  Decadal prediction of coupled system (WGDP) given the dominant role of oceans on these time scales But some CLIVAR activities are broader and do not, including existing interactions with GEWEX, SPARC, CLIC, …  extremes; annular modes; sea level rise; etc.  earth system modeling & seasonal pred. (WGCM, WGSIP)  monsoons (e.g. parts of VAMOS, AAMP, VACS) should be redefined with GEWEX and WCRP applications Strategy and Evolution of CLIVAR

MINI-JSC October Boulder What Constitutes Grand Challenge? o A strong Grand Challenge is both highly specific and highly focused identifying a specific barrier preventing progress in a critical area of climate science. o This focus enables the development of targeted research efforts with the likelihood of significant progress over 5-10 years, even if its ultimate success is uncertain. o It should thus enable the implementation of effective and measurable performance metrics. o By being transformative, a Grand Challenge should bring the best minds to the table (voluntarily), building and strengthening communities of innovators that are collaborative, perhaps also extending beyond “in- house expertise”. o It can capture the public’s imagination: teams of world-leading scientists working to solve pressing challenges can offer compelling storylines to capture the interest of media and the public.

MINI-JSC October Boulder SSG-18: Some Discussion on potential Grand Challenges  regional sea level  droughts  tropical biases  dynamics of ocean-upwelling systems  … Grand Challenges and CLI(V)MAR SSG-19: Focus on Grand Challenges and IMBER  US-CLIVAR (your) input wanted!

MINI-JSC October Boulder Provision of skillful future climate information on regional scales (includes decadal and polar predictability) Filippo Giorgi, Carolina Vera, Fred Semazzi, CLIVAR, SPARC, WMAC Regional Sea-Level Rise Konrad Steffen, WCRP/IOC Task Force on Sea Level Variability and Change, CLIVAR, CliC Cryosphere response to climate change (including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon) Vladimir Kattsov, CliC, GEWEX, Greg Flato, Sarah Gille, WGCM, WGOMD Improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation and their contributions to climate sensitivity Terry Nakajima, Hong Liao, Graciela Binimelis de Raga, GEWEX, SPARC, WGCM, WGNE Past and future changes in water availability (with connections to water security and hydrological cycle) Kevin Trenberth, Pius Yanda, Hervé le Treut, GEWEX, CLIVAR, WGCM Science underpinning the prediction and attribution of extreme events David Karoly, CLIVAR, GEWEX, Modeling Council, ETCCDI, Fred Semazzi Grand Challenges WCRP

MINI-JSC October Boulder Update on ICSU Visioning Process 21

The Earth System Sustainability Initiative photos: Future Earth

Earth System Research for Sustainable Development Future Earth

“Future Earth” Vision Develop knowledge for effective responses to the risks and opportunities of global environmental change. Develop and apply knowledge to manage risks transition to a secure future of equitable and integrated environmental, social, and economic well- being.

“Future Earth” Objectives Coordinate and focus international scientific research to address the Grand Challenges arising from the ICSU Visioning and Belmont Forum processes in order to use human and financial resources efficiently so as to support efforts of international science to understand environmental change and to provide solutions to society; Build on and continue successful international collaborative projects that are addressing critical global change problems Engage a new generation of diverse researchers from all regions in the social, economic, natural, health, and engineering sciences in global sustainability research to ensure the future success of research efforts

“Future Earth” Objectives Strategically integrate social-, economical, engineering and natural sciences and in the pursuit of solutions to growing problems of global environmental change and sustainable development Foster a major step-change not only in scientific endeavor, but also in bridging science-policy-practice, science in support of development, service provisioning, communications, and capacity development. Provide a strengthened global platform for global initiatives on science in support of global sustainability and an enhanced ability for collaborative efforts in synthesis, assessments and observations.

Conceptual Framework

Forecasting Confining/ Thresholds RespondingInnovatingObserving Possible conceptual framework - 1 Assumptions Starts with ICSU visioning Organized around global environment Adds more social science Multiple links to existing Alliance projects and programs Links to decision makers concerns and human development agendas Needs international collaboration Impossibility of including everything Global environmental change DRAFT

FoodEnergyWaterConservationHealth Rewarding work Land use allocation Disaster Risk Reduction Identity, freedom and community Forecasting Confining/ Thresholds RespondingInnovatingObserving Possible conceptual framework – Links to human development concerns Global environmental change DRAFT

FoodEnergyWaterConservationHealthRewarding workLand use allocation Disaster Risk Reduction Identity, freedom and community Forecasting Confining/ Thresholds RespondingInnovatingObserving Possible conceptual framework – Scientific arenas Global environmental change DRAFT

Forecasting Confining/ Thresholds RespondingInnovatingObserving Possible conceptual framework - fundamental Science themes Global environmental change DRAFT

Time Line Develop initial Research and Institutional Framework until Planet under Pressure Launch Future Earth at Rio+20 Comments and suggestions to Martin Visbeck and Steve Zebiak, both members on the Transition Team