Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Six Party Talks simulation briefing

Nuclear Proliferation Spread of nuclear weapons to new countries Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) –Rules on who can have nuclear weapons –International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitored Mixed record

The Central Issue North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons program Plutonium Program –Estimated to have enough material for 3-15 bombs –Test proves weaponization How much do they have? –Existing Reactors actively producing more fissile material Highly Enriched Uranium Program –Secret program disclosed in 2002

Central Issue North Korea has other threatening programs as well –ICBMs –1,000,000+ man army –Artillery surrounds Seoul –Chemical and Biological Weapons –Counterfeit currency –Smuggling Willing to sell?

Central Issue North Korea is very poor and in desperate need of assistance

History 1994 Crisis –DPRK leaves NPT, kicks out IAEA inspectors –De-fuels Yongboyng reactor –US engages in bi-lateral negotiations –War Scare, Jimmy Carter intervenes –Agreed Framework DPRK trades nuclear program for economic and energy assistance Sequential deal –KEDO Multi-national group to build 2 LWR in North Japan, South Korea pay most of the bill

History Sunshine Policy –South engages North 1998 Missile Test Failed deal in 2000 –Albright visits, no deal reached 2002 Kelly Mission –US outs HEU program –NK claims to have a bomb Axis of Evil Speech Move to Six Party Talks

Parties North Korea South Korea China Japan Russia USA

Six Party Talks First 3 rounds end with no progress 2005: Round 4 of talks –Supposed agreement to trade nuclear reactors for security agreements and assistance –Deal falls apart days after its announced July 2006: North Korea tests Taepodong-2 and several short-range missiles

Nuclear Test October 2006: North Korea conducts a nuclear test –8 th declared nuclear power –Outrage from international community Policy Challenges –Non-proliferation to counter-proliferation –Conventional deterrence to nuclear deterrence

Questionable Assumptions The North’s Pending Economic Collapse? –Things keep getting worse but the regime is still in power The North’s (and Kim Jong Il’s) Rationality? –Rational or irrational actors? Nuclear issue at the top of the agenda? –Missiles, HR, conventional arms, abducted citizens, humanitarian crisis Multilateral or Bilateral? –Who can actually cut a deal? –Who actually has influence and is willing to use it?

The Road Ahead Limited leverage High cost of conflict Status of February 2007 agreement? Can we live with a Nuclear North Korea? –What price are you willing to pay for counter-proliferation? –What signal does this send to other nuclear- aspiring nations?

Your Goal Simulation of the Six Party Talks Country Teams –Assigned Monday, work together in class next week Opening Session Monday 6 August –PowerPoint Presentations to the group Negotiations Friday 10 August –Time to arrange meetings and craft an agreement