Exploring Possibility Space: an experiential approach to intelligence analysis Brett Peppler, FAIPIO Adjunct Professor, Macquarie University 8 December 2014 Address to Connections Australia 20141

Things we need to get right in intelligence praxis Instilling a strong sense of client focus Developing an ability to deal with complexity, uncertainty and surprise, especially processing counter-intuitive insights that challenge assumptions Recognising dynamic dependencies between intelligence, risk and decision, especially the dynamism of intelligence requirements and the need to communicate residual risk Promoting innovation in intelligence practice Address to Connections Australia 20142

Key Benefits of an Experiential Approach through Gaming Helps to better understand the problem to be solved or the opportunity to be exploited Helps to gain a better understanding of ourselves and our priorities, by reflecting on how we deal with the choices created by the game play Creates broader insights about intelligence practice by engineering rich interactions between analysts – a shared learning space Appeals to the experiential learning style of adult learners Address to Connections Australia 20143

Design of Possibility Gaming A key challenge for intelligence analysis is to reduce the complexity for the design and execution of new methods: – A strategic landscape or ‘possibility space’ where action and response may be simulated. – A simple ‘set of rules’ for navigating the strategic landscape. – A dynamic workflow incorporating reflection to surface and assimilate insights. Address to Connections Australia 20144

Concept - Possibility Space Follow Valleys, Climb Hills Foggy Landscape (Ambiguity) 5Address to Connections Australia 2014

Strategic Landscape Address to Connections Australia 20146

Example - Strategic Landscape as a Possibility Space Z z X Game play might start here for all players CH Transition US Growth 7Address to Connections Australia 2014

Navigation Use ‘arguments’ to create game dynamics, make things happen, and change the possibility space ‘Arguments’ comprise a desired action and three reasons why the action will achieve the desired effects An adjudicator determines the strength of arguments (logically consistent, etc.) and which arguments are in competition, with stronger arguments having a better chance of happening Players then roll a dice to determine if their own argument ‘happens’ The conflict between players evolves the possibility space, ‘making up the game’ as it progresses Address to Connections Australia 20148

Example – Navigation Your optimal target Player A’s optimal target X Eg. Game play starts here for all players CH Transition US Growth How will your move affect Growth? Inhibit, enhance Direct, indirect How will your move affect economic transition? Inhibit, enhance Direct, indirect 9Address to Connections Australia 2014

Reflection Context changes Internalisation (Purpose) Externalisation (Plan) Impact Learning 10Address to Connections Australia 2014

Example - Pre-Game Analysis Who are the other actors? Do they help or hinder you in reaching your optimal (bettable) target? – Generally, partially Where is their optimal (bettable) target? What are their objectives? What events will change your strategic direction? 11Address to Connections Australia 2014

Example - Turn Analysis Do actions and their results (in the previous turn) change your broad strategic thrust? How? Have you lost or acquired strategic enablers during game play? Have the actions/results affected the broader strategic environment in a way that you need to take this change into account? 12Address to Connections Australia 2014

Example – Post-Game Analysis Forensically examine the chain of argumentation underpinning the game play. What did players think they knew at each game turn. What did players actually know. What did players need to know. How was player ‘knowledge’ influenced by assumptions. Address to Connections Australia

Summary If design and delivery overheads can be contained, gaming offers a rich experiential learning approach for intelligence analysis An experiential learning approach appeals to adult learners and maximises the ah-ha moments that make learning ‘sticky’ The emphasis in an experiential learning approach through gaming is on how to think not on what to think. Address to Connections Australia