Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October.

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Presentation transcript:

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 1 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Multifamily Construction Outlook for NAHB Fall 2006 Construction Forecast Conference

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 2 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Recent U.S. Apartment Market Performance

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 3 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Apartment occupancy and rent trends strong… Source: Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 4 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas …driven by very healthy rental demand Source: Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 5 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Key Demand Drivers

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 6 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Rental demand shaped, in part, by job availability Source: Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 7 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Jobs Outlook: slowdown in 2006, gradually stronger 2007 Sources: Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; consensus forecast from Economy.com, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association of Realtors, Wall Street Journal

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 8 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Commercial construction taking up part of job slack Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 9 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Wider rent-buy gap also drives rental demand Source: Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 10 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Post-2001 decline in rates: bad news for apartment owners Sources: Federal Housing Finance Board, OFHEO, NAR

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 11 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Home-buying now out of reach for average consumer Source: Witten Advisors calculations

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 12 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Condominium Market

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 13 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Existing condo sales off moderately Source: NAR

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 14 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Condo listings are still rising, leading to… Source: NAR

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 15 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas …softer condo prices nationally (therefore, falling in some markets) Source: Single-Family from OFHEO home price series; Condominiums from NAR median price series

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 16 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Condo conversion activity drying up Source: Real Capital Analytics

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 17 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Empty condo inventory reaches 13-year high – but not near a replay of the 1980s (yet) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 18 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Q: When will MF for-sale starts slow down? Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 19 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Key Supply Drivers

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 20 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Post-2001 decline in rates: good news for apartment owners

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 21 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Lower rates supported new rental development Source: Federal Reserve Board, Witten Advisors calculations

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 22 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Spike in MF cost inflation appears to be passing

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 23 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas SF slowdown should weaken land price inflation Sources: Housing starts, U.S. Department of Commerce; residential land price trends, Federal Reserve Board; forecasts, Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 24 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Yields on rental development end their slide Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Witten Advisors calculations

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 25 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Actual MF starts are steady, though permits rise Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 26 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Outlook for the U.S. Apartment Market

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 27 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Demand > supply through 2007 Source: Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 28 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Occupancy rises through 2007; rent growth rate peaks in early 2007 Source: Witten Advisors

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 29 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Local Market Prospects

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 30 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas July 2006 Actuals: Job Growth Highlights Employment Growth 12 Months ending July Phoenix 90.3k 2.Washington DC73.4k 3.Houston59.0k 4.Seattle54.4k 5.Atlanta 54.0k 6.Dallas52.6k 7.Las Vegas48.9k 8.Los Angeles48.2k 41.Indianapolis-3.9k 42.Detroit -13.1k Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Growth Rate 12 Months ending July Las Vegas+5.6% 2.Phoenix +5.1% 3.Salt Lake City +4.5% 4.Raleigh+4.0% 5.Fort Lauderdale+4.0% 6.Orlando +4.0% 7.Seattle+3.9% U.S.+1.3%

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 31 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas 2Q 2006 Actuals: Top Demand Growth Markets Apartment Absorption 12 Months ending 2Q Houston22.1k 2.Atlanta 11.5k 3.Dallas 9.2k 4.Chicago 7.9k 5.Boston 6.0k 6.Denver 5.3k Source: Witten Advisors Apartment Absorption Rate 12 Months ending 2Q Houston +5.1% 2.San Antonio +4.8% 3.Austin +3.8% 4.Fort Worth +3.7% 5.Atlanta +3.6% 6.Portland+3.3% 7.Charlotte+3.2%

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 32 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas 2Q 2006 Actuals: Effective Rent Growth by Metro Largest Rent Increases 12 Months ending 2Q Fort Lauderdale +9.5% 2.West Palm Beach +9.1% 3.Orlando +8.7% 4.Phoenix+8.2% 5.San Francisco+8.2% 6.Miami+7.5% 7.Los Angeles +7.4% 8.Tampa+7.3% Source: Witten Advisors Smallest Rent Increases 12 Months ending 2Q Columbus+1.3% 38.Kansas City+1.2% 39.San Antonio+1.2% 40.St. Louis+1.0% 41.Detroit+0.8% 42.Cincinnati+0.4%

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 33 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Several metros see a spike in MF permits, despite construction costs – examples: Trailing 12-month totals Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 34 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Source: U.S. Department of Commerce

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 35 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Top Markets for Multifamily Rental Starts Houston 11.2k 2.Dallas8.2k 3.Atlanta7.7k 4.Miami7.6k 5.Austin6.3k 6.San Antonio5.9k 7.Phoenix5.0k 8.Washington DC4.8k 9.Los Angeles4.8k 10.Las Vegas4.6k Source: Witten Advisors forecasts Houston 13.6k 2.Dallas8.4k 3.Atlanta7.6k 4.Miami6.2k 5.Los Angeles 5.6k 6.Seattle5.4k 7.Washington DC5.3k 8.Phoenix5.2k 9.Austin5.2k 10.San Antonio4.3k

Witten Market Advisory Services Market insights for apartment owners, developers, investors and lenders Market-Smart Investment Decisions Advisors October 25, 2006 NAHB Construction Forecast 36 Copyright 2006, Witten Advisors LLC Dallas, Texas Questions