System Dynamics Projects in Eskom NALINI SOOKNANAN PILLAY HEAD: SYSTEM DYNAMICS CENTRE OF EXPERTISE RESEARCH TESTING AND DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABILITY GROUP

System Dynamics CoE Alignment with Eskom’s Strategic Imperatives SI_1 Becoming a high performance organisation SI_2 Leading and partnering to keep the lights on SI_3 Reducing environmental footprint, pursuing low-C growth opportunities SI_4 Securing future resource requirements, mandate & enabling environment BUSINESS FOCUS AREAS System causality through causal loop diagrams Asset Management Distribution Customer Service Research and consulting in the field of systems thinking and system dynamics Extraction of core archetypal behaviour System Market Operator IDM Primary energy Extend mental models into SD simulators with feedbacks & time delays Development of appropriate user interface tools Strategy & Policy Generation and New Build EAL Build capacity for SD simulations and systems thinking principles SI_5 Ensuring financial sustainability SI_6 Setting ourselves up for success SI_7 Implementing coal haulage and road to rail migration plan SI_8 Pursuing private sector participation 2

System Dynamics CoE Language of System Dynamics 1. CAUSALITY 3. SYSTEM ARCHETYPES Balancing loop with time delays Reinforcing loops Limits to growth Fixes that fail Tragedy of the commons Success to the successful Eroding goals Shifting the burden 2. TIME PATHS 4. LANGUAGE Time System 3 3

System Dynamics CoE Positioning of Eskom Strategic Orientation Operational Planning Feedback DETERMINISTIC SYSTEMIC UNDERSTANDING Water, Tariffs, Emissions, etc. PF Coal, HVDC, PWR, FGD, Nuclear, Gas, Pumped storage etc. Gen IV Nuclear, Batteries, Smart grid, Electric Vehicle, Wave power, GS Heat Pumps, Disruptive Technologies, Ocean pumped storage, Efficiency technologies, Energy Intelligence, Energy storage, Mini-grids CCS, etc. IRP, Intl. Treaties, CO2 derivatives, Fossil depletion, Energy policy, Transport & Mobility, Non-proliferation of Nuclear, Customer Behaviour, Demand Response, Carbon Tax etc. “ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES/ DECISIONS/ POLICIES DO NOT INSTANTLY FLOW FROM EVIDENCE, DEDUCTIVE LOGIC AND MATHEMATICAL OPTIMIZATION” EDWARD B. ROBERTS Systems have unique emergent properties.

Eskom Technology Systems Model Strategy Scenario Simulator System Dynamics CoE EXAMPLES OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPLICATION Eskom Technology Systems Model Strategy Scenario Simulator Gini Coefficient Simulator 5 5

System Dynamics CoE Eskom Technology Systems Simulator: E-TechSim CAUTION: BY RUNNING THE MODEL, YOU HAVE NOT CONSULTED THE ORACLE!! YOU HAVE A FLIGHT SIMULATOR TO ENGAGE IN STRATEGIC DIALOGUES 6

System Dynamics CoE Eskom Technology Systems Simulator: E-TechSim 7

System Dynamics CoE Organisational Strategy: Eskom Scenario Simulator

System Dynamics CoE Organisational Strategy: Eskom Scenario Simulator

System Dynamics CoE Exploring Gini Coefficient Dynamics 10

System Dynamics CoE Research Projects RESEARCH AREA PROJECTS Strategy & Policy Customer Service Index Model: Dynamics in network performance, customer demands, the walk-in call centres and customer network centres and trouble responses. Green Bonds Simulator: Will assist EFC and the DBSA to understand the impact of variations in subsidies and tax rebates on attracting players to participate in the concept of green bonds. Scenario Simulator: Looking at key driving forces including SADC relations. GINI Coefficient: Sensitivity analysis and relationships between Gini coefficient and electricity tariff increases, electricity intensity, redistributive measures (social grants, subsidies, capital etc). Supply Dynamics Eskom Water Simulator: Scope will include the water consumption dynamics through Eskom generation value chain and eventually will be integrated with a global energy model. Plant Availability Simulator: Assemble empirical basis for linking variables such as UCLF, PCLF, EAF; actual versus scheduled outage programs; experience level of staff etc and its impact on outage creep. Demand Dynamics Economic sectors: Will include a simulator that will explore the dynamics within various economic sectors (mining & quarrying; services; agriculture; transport) and the residential sector and its impact on the electricity industry. Skills Development Training Course 11

“TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE TOMORROWS PROBLEMS….” System Dynamics CoE “TODAYS SOLUTIONS ARE TOMORROWS PROBLEMS….” 12