Jeremy Fried, Jamie Barbour, Roger Fight, Glenn Christensen, Guy Pinjuv & others at USFS PNW, Rocky Mountain, and Southern Research Stations Development of FIA BioSum to Evaluate Small Tree Biomass Production Possibilities, Costs and Fuel Treatment Effectiveness

Key Questions Is there enough biomass to fuel a power plant? Where is the best place to locate a power plant? How long would biomass feedstocks last? How much improvement in fire hazard? How much land area could be treated?

Fire Condition Classes guided study area selection

Objectives for FIA BioSum Rapid assessment via off-the-shelf data and methods to: Find hot spots of biomass accumulation Assess fuel treatment accomplishments in terms of fire hazard reduction Quantify removed materials by size Learn how answers respond to pricing, silvicultural Rx, cost assumptions and logging system alternatives

Users Specify… Harvesting Costs Hauling Costs Manufacturing Costs Silvicultural Prescriptions Product Prices

Analytic Framework Founded on FIA inventory plot/tree attributes Risk-reduction inspired silvicultural Rxs Location/stand-tailored harvest methods Haul-costs calculated for all plot-processing site pairs Apply (via FVS & FFE) all Rx to  database of treatment outputs for each plot Merge with haul costs to ID top sites

Refined methods with Klamath pilot

Fire Condition Classes in Pilot Area

1068 Inventory Plots in Klamath Ecoregion 4.4 million acres 3.8 million roaded acres 1.6 million treatable acres

Silvicultural Prescriptions 7 Rx tested to date, including Thin from below to various stocking limits Uneven aged SDI based across diameter classes Concern that TFB not sustainable But, many uneven aged Rx ineffective at reducing fire hazard

Silvicultural Prescriptions Treatment B: Fire Hazard Reduction Merchantable trees are thinned from below to residual basal area target Leaves minimum basal area Treatment A: Stocking Reduction Merchantable trees are thinned proportionately across diameter classes to target residual basal area

Untreated Treatment BTreatment A

Untreated Treatment BTreatment A

Location of Potential Mill Sites

Working “circles” in $2/ton increments P-site $20/ton haul cost

“Best” processing site location depends on price, Rx & objective Red sites maximize something

All 1068 plots 3.8 million acres 79 NetRev+ plots 0.3 million acres 444 treatable plots 1.6 million acres 885 roaded plots 3.2 million acres The incredible, shrinking plot base

Millions of tons of biomass at $26/ton, Rx A Millions of tons of biomass at $26/ton, Rx B Biomass Accumulation Potential

Average Green Tons/Acre P-site 181

Accumulated green tons P-site $26/gr. ton

Total Value by Biomass Price P-site 181

Percent of plots by net revenue feeding P-site 181

Biomass for energy production Typical 20 MegaWatt biomass fueled electrical generation plant consumes 700 green tons/day! Treatment B: At $26/ton accumulates 1.2 million green tons Power plant operates for 4.7 years Treatment A: At $26/ton accumulates 530,000 green tons Power plant operates for 2 years

Lessons/Challenges Torching Index not improved by uneven aged Rx we tried Conventional harvest systems used; new approaches could greatly reduce costs Accounting for infrastructure Power lines, biogas pipelines, non-forest biomass sources

Assume private landowners would select Rx that maximize fuel treatment or net revenue objectives? 90% of tonnage not biomass- higher and more valuable usage almost certain If manipulate to make it pay, how much fire safety actually achieved?

Next Steps

Expanding to 4 eco-sections…

Then on to the Southwest…

FIA BioSum DIY, the sequel User accessible tool for “static analyses” that allows customization of: Log/haul costs, delivered prices, transport network Rxs, decision rules re: entry criteria & residual stand Fire indices, risk reduction criteria Specific sites to evaluate Policy/institutional assumptions (e.g., willingness to treat) Environmental mitigation Size and species classes reported And generates tables, reports, & maps

Timeline for the road ahead Add 4 OR/CA ecoregions – Aug 02 AZ and NM (whole states) – Nov 02 Develop user-friendly tool – ????

Any questions?