The European Chemical Industry: Cefic Chemicals Trends Report Dr Moncef HADHRI Economic Affairs Industrial Policy Department mha@cefic.be April 14, 2015

The Ifo World Economic Climate remained stable in Q1-2015 Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The January 2015 survey received responses from 1,071 experts in 117 countries Economic climate is the arithmetic average of present and expected economic situation The world economy showed little dynamism, but there are significant regional differences

The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator improves further in March 2015 The (ESI) is calculated as a weighted average of five confidence indicators, industry (40%), services (30%), consumers (20%), construction (5%) and retail trade (5%). The ESI are still well above its long term average since September 2013 The ESI indicator increased in March 2015 by 0.9 points in the EU to 106.1 (by 1.6 points to 103.9 in the euro area) Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis The ESI rose significantly in Italy, Germany and Spain

Confidence in industry and services increased marginally Confidence improved in consumers and retail trade while it dropped in construction Confidence in industry and services increased marginally Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis

EU chemical business climate deteriorated in the first quarter of 2015 Both situation at present and expectation deteriorated in Q1-2015

EU chemical confidence dropped in the first quarter of 2015 Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis Production expectations contributed largely to this drop

The other business climate components deteriorated further in Q1-2015 Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis Selling price expectations registered a spectacular drop

Capacity utilisation declines slightly in Q4-2014, down from 81 Capacity utilisation declines slightly in Q4-2014, down from 81.2% in Q3-2014 It remains 3.9% points below the post-crisis peak (Q1-2011), and nearly closed to the long term average

Capacity utilisation: Uneven developments within the European Union Capacity utilisation remained unchanged in Germany, positive development in the UK

However, Poland and France are very closed to their pre-crisis level Capacity utilisation in the UK, Spain and Italy still far below the peak level However, Poland and France are very closed to their pre-crisis level

Employment slightly decreased in Q4-2014 Employment stabilised in Q1-2010 and gradually increased since end 2013 9.1% below Employment slightly decreased in Q4-2014

Employment went up in 2014 by 1.6% compared to 2013 It is still 6.4% below the 2008 level (pre-crisis level)

Output declined in Jan 2015 by 0.3% compared to Jan-2014 Stagnant growth for the EU chemicals sector (+0.2% in 2014 compared to 2013) 7.1% below Output declined in Jan 2015 by 0.3% compared to Jan-2014

Output growth: Uneven developments within the EU chemical industry Significant output growth in specialty and consumer chemicals

EU chemicals prices fall by 1.8% in 2014 compared to 2013 Petrochemicals prices has the deepest dip in Jan 2015 (-11%, y-o-y)

EU chemicals sales down by 1.1% in 2014 compared to 2013 Sales followed a negative trend since 2012

EU chemicals exports were €137.7 bn in 2014 R basi Down by €851 million compared to 2013 (-0.6%)

Delta Extra-EU exports, (2014 vs 2013, €mn) R basi EU exports to the USA dramatically declined in petrochemicals

EU chemicals imports were €93.6 bn in 2014 R basi Up by nearly €3.3 bn in 2014 compared to 2013 (+3.6%)

Delta Extra-EU imports, (2014 vs 2013, €mn) R basi EU imports from Russia considerably raised in petrochemicals

Extra-EU chemicals trade surplus of €44.1 billion in 2014 R basi A trade deficit in EU petrochemicals for the first time

Extra-EU chemicals trade surplus of €44.1 billion in 2014 R basi Rest of Europe (including Russia) and the USA account for more than 1/3 of the total EU surplus

2014 surplus: Down by €4.1 bn compared to 2013 R basi EU trade with Rest of Europe and US contributed largely to this drop

Back-up Slides R basi

Confidence in industry and services increased marginally Confidence improved in consumers and retail trade while it dropped in construction Confidence in industry and services increased marginally

EU chemical confidence improved in March 2015 Thanks to the chemicals order books which improved significantly

EU chemicals sales by sub-sector (year 2013)

Output growth: Uneven developments within the EU chemical industry

Petrochemicals prices has the deepest dip

Chemicals Trends Report: Top Indicators About the Chemicals Trends Report The Cefic Chemicals Trends Report is issued each month to members of Cefic – the European Chemical Industry Council – which includes chemical industry associations and member companies. The report (slides) provides a snapshot of the chemical industry performance in the 28 member states of the European Union and is based on available data released by Eurostat. The scope of the one-page summary report distils Eurostat data into four areas: chemicals production, trade, prices and total sales. Chemicals Trends Report (CTR)  About Cefic Created in 1972, Cefic is the forum and the voice of the chemical industry in Europe. We represent 29,000 large, medium and small chemical companies in Europe, which directly provide 1.2 million jobs and account for 17% of world chemical production. To learn more about Cefic, visit its website at www.cefic.org. Dr. Moncef Hadhri Economic Affairs mha@cefic.be Tel: +32 2 676 72 82