US Bank Outlook Forum Hart Hodges Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University December 11, 2012 Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines.

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Presentation transcript:

US Bank Outlook Forum Hart Hodges Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University December 11, 2012 Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines

 Risks are easy to find – Impacts are hard to forecast  The fear is often worse than the actual event  Coming out of the recession – the signals for our region are a bit muddy  Differences between major metro and other areas may be growing  Programs designed to improve the job market lack a solid foundation  Outlook:  Continued slow growth and uncertainty  Pay attention to differences in economic growth across industry sectors, geography, and age groups Outline

Structural or Cyclical ?

Inflation ?

What to Do ? CBO Forecast (% of GDP)

Impact of Next Event ?

KingSkagitWhatcom Jobs1.45 mm45,00085,000 Population (2011)1.97 mm118,000203,660 Median Household Income $68,775$52,519$51,500 Unemployment7.4%9.3%7.4% Overview – Basic Stats

Border Crossings

 Costco  50% of all revenue received  Gas station is in the top 5 for the US  More milk sales than any other Costco  Target  50% of all sales  Fred Meyer  30-50% of sales at Bakerview; less than 30% Lakeway  Skagit  Estimates Forthcoming Influence of the Canadian $

Retail Sales

Job Growth in the Region…

Profession & Business Service Jobs

MfgConst. Prof & Business Services Retail Seattle MSA Bellingham MSA Mt. Vernon MSA 88na0 Share of Job Growth (%) 2010 to present

Construction Jobs

A Slow Recovery ?

Productivity Real GDP JOBS

 Small businesses create most jobs  Start-ups create most jobs  Clusters are essential for job creation  “Second Stage” companies create most jobs  part of “economic gardening” “Theories” About Job Creation

Testing the Theories Job Growth Firm Age Firm Size Industry Sector Location (county) Average Wage

 You can get any result you want  Change how you measure job growth  Change how you account for time or size  Etc.  Very, very little explanatory power in the models !  Concern: Very little foundation for job creation programs… which means good results only by luck Findings… So Far

 Efforts to increase job creation may not be that helpful  The labor force has gotten smaller and older  with differences in the job mix in major metro areas versus smaller areas  Job growth in this region may continue to lag behind Seattle in the near-term (it could be worse)  Slower population growth suggests slower growth in retail sales Conclusions

Thank You !