DSA Annual Conference 2012 – Panel 3 Effective States and Inclusive Development November 3 rd, Institute of Education, London Delivering effective social assistance: Does politics matter?* Armando Barrientos, BWPI, University of Manchester, UK Sony Pellissery, Institute of Rural Management, Anand, India * available from

The paper in brief Introduction – why look at the politics of social assistance? Two way process: politics shapes social assistance programmes, but also feedback effects Case Studies: India, Brazil and South Africa Framework for studying the linkages between politics and the expansion of social assistance

The politics of social assistance in developing countries The politics of adoption, design and budgets What are the political conditions leading to the adoption of antipoverty programmes? The effects of social assistance on politics Do social assistance programmes strengthen the support for incumbents? Is social assistance clientelist in developing countries? Implications for delivery

Table 1. Politics and social assistance: India, Brazil and South Africa IndiaBrazilSouth Africa Political processes shaping social assistance  Continued democracy since independence, but Constitution recognized social assistance only as desirable activity  Multiple political parties and fragmented opposition  Local/sub-national governments initially provide social assistance and later national governments extend them  1988 Constitution a new social contract after 20 years of dictatorship  Party fragmentation and weak party allegiance  Parliamentary activism and scrutiny  Federal structure, with federal government-municipalities partnership on implementation  1996 Constitution a new social contract after the fall of Apartheid  Governing coalition faces weak opposition, strong allegiance to ANC based on racial politics  Federal structure but central government rules social assistance after unevenness in provision under Apartheid Social assistance  Proliferation of programmes  Shift towards inclusive growth agenda through rights based social assistance  Strong constituencies around the PDS and BPL lead opposition to rights based approach  Process deficits and uneven implementation of NREGS indicates primacy of state politics  Rapid growth of social assistance  Organic growth of flagship programme, from municipal activism to federal policy  Shift from vulnerable group approach in the Constitution, to citizenship based means tested guaranteed minimum income  Rules based and rights based social assistance  Social assistance instrumental to managing social and economic transition from apartheid rule  Rules-based and rights-based social assistance, through means tested cash transfers  Vulnerable groups approach but wide reach of antipoverty transfers Feedback effects from social assistance to politics  Social assistance helps align electoral support at State level  Capture at delivery stage of social assistance reinforces clientelistic and identity politics at local level  State-center relations means stratified feedback  Bolsa Familia associated with Lula and Workers Party contributes to electoral success  Poverty and social assistance at the center of policy and political debates  Municipal leaders share credit for effectiveness of social assistance  Social assistance reinforces ANC support, especially in the context of low growth, high unemployment, and conventional macroeconomics  Poverty and equity at the center of policy and political debate  Wide political and public support for social assistance

Table 2. An incremental framework for examining the influence of politics on social assistance in developing countries Adding complexity incrementally  Direct democracyRepresentative democracy Plus a measure of government autonomy Plus participation What does the analysis abstracts from? Representatives Government Civil society & NGOs Government Civil society & NGOs Political processes shaping social assistance Preference aggregation Electoral support Party competition/ coalition Policy priority setting (De)centralization Agency competition/ cooperation Horizontal and vertical integration Accountability Public support Interest groups Key social assistance dimension Adoption Design, incidence, and budget Implementation Accountability Evolution over time Practical issues/findings relevant to social assistance Principles and values (citizenship/contributi on/ dessert) Design Reach/incidence Budgets Lead agency Beneficiary selection Transfer level and type Coverage Agency coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation Forms of accountability Participatory processes Feedback effects Social pacts - social contracts – access order Party dominance Coalition formation/ stability Electoral support Pro-poorness Local political support and power Autonomy of local bureaucracies Sustainability of social assistance Priority to poverty reduction Influence of civil society & NGOs Critical issuesSocial contract renewal Social pacts? Coalitions? Influence of donors in LICs Building and maintaining coalitions Interests and values Basis for electoral advantage Credibility and trust Competitive versus identity politics Opportunities for reform/ scale up Federal/Estate/District politics, responsibility/gains Technical and political networks Public perceptions of effectiveness Elections Closed or open source models Political sustainability Managing political change (changes in government, etc.) Broad coalition building Feedback into political processes

Conclusions Politics has a strong influence on the adoption, design, and budgets for social assistance In turn, social assistance programmes have feedback effects on politics at the local and national levels Literature on this is growing, but it is piecemeal focusing at the programme/country level Existing models of the politics of distribution/poverty reduction fail to explain the current expansion of social assistance in developing countries An incremental ‘concertina’ approach which separates out the different dimensions of influence has a better chance of capturing and organising the complex relationship between politics and social assistance Politics matter for the implementation and sustainability of social assistance