Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution in Southern California Principal Investigators: Michael Hanemann, Linwood Pendleton, and David Layton Participating Universities: University of California at Berkeley, University of Southern California, University of California at Davis

Sponsoring Agencies: Federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Damage Assessment and Special Programs) Minerals Management Service State State Water Resources Control Board California Department of Fish and Game (OSPR) Regional Santa Monica Bay Restoration Program Southern California Coastal Water Research Program

Research Goals:  Develop a Model of Beach Choice, incorporating: Travel and Time Costs (and expenditures) Beach Amenities Water Quality Substitution Possibilities (Time & Space)

Research Goals:  Determine the Economic Impact Due to: Changes in Water Quality Beach Postings Beach Closures (Amenity Management)

Research Goals: Measure Economic Impacts on: The Well-being of Beach Goers Local Expenditures

The Essentials: Beach Inventories Screener Survey Year Long Panel Survey Year 1: Focus on beaches from San Onofre to County Line Beach Year 2: Extend focus north to San Luis Obispo

An Inventory of Beach Attributes: GIS

Beaches Covered County Line  Santa Monica  Venice  Hermosa  Huntington  Newport  Laguna  San Onofre From Counties in Stage 1

Beaches Covered San Simeon State  Pismo State  Goleta  Carpenteria City  La Conchita  Emma Woods State  Oxnard Shores  Thornhill Broome From Counties added in Stage 2

An Inventory of Beach Attributes

Stage 1: Los Angeles Orange County San Bernadino Riverside Stage 2: Los Angeles Orange County San Bernadino Riverside Ventura Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo Beach Goers Covered: Counties Surveyed

Preliminary Results: Screener Survey

Screener Survey: Other Results

Preliminary Results: Panel Survey

45% went to beach less, 14% stopped going to HB

Preliminary Results: The State of California and the Regional Water Quality Board are currently investigating methods to clean up the coastal waters in Santa Monica Bay and Orange County. Under the new program, beaches might still be posted because of stormwater problems, but beach closings from sewer spills would be eliminated in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. If the program is approved, it would be paid for by an annual sewer surcharge. The voters would have to approve such a surcharge. The sewer surcharge would cost a household like yours about $[X1] to $[X2] per year, depending on the final design of the system. If the cost was $[X] would you vote for the program?

Results of the Willingness To Pay ?

What The Model Will Do: A Workable model that will predict and value Beach Visitation Economic Well-being Expenditures

For a variety of scenarios concerning changes in Beach Amenities Travel Costs Water Quality Beach Closures

Uses of Interest to the Coastal Commission Valuing Public vs. Private Access Valuing Remoteness Valuing Means of Access Valuing Acquisition of New Public Beaches Valuing Loss of Access Valuing Beachside Development

and