Land Conservation and Development Commission 3/12/15 Victor Chudowsky, City Counselor Brian T. Rankin, Long-range Planning Manager

Background: Remand & New Process Update on Progress: Initial Findings Next Steps: Phase 2 Work Plan Discussion: LCDC Feedback

 Planning period  Housing, Employment, Park, School, Institutional, Other Land  Population forecast of 115,063  16,681 New Housing Units & 22,891 New Jobs  8,462 acres: 2,866 acres for residential, park, school, ROW, other lands, & 2,090 acres for employment uses

Bend Area General Plan - update Sewer Master Plan - new Water Master Plan - new Transportation System Plan - update

Land for Housing, Schools, Parks, Other Land for Employment Transportation Public Facilities Boundary Location Major Issue Areas:

LCDC agreed with employment forecast of 22,891 new jobs and EOA LCDC agrees with need for 2 large (50+ acres) industrial sites, university, hospital/medical campus Analyze 10% redevelopment / refill factor Reconsider “market choice” factor Reconsider 15% vacancy factor

LCDC accepts population forecast of 115,000 in 2028 LCDC accepts housing forecast of 16,681 new units in 2028 Revise Buildable Lands Inventory Reconsider Housing Needs Analysis (type and mix) Consider additional “efficiency measures” and redevelopment potential

 Revise and re-adopt sewer and water master plans for current UGB  Re-analyze sewer and water service to serve UGB expansion area  Sewage treatment plant master plan acknowledged

Reconsider major projects when analyzing transportation costs Demonstrate reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

Reconsider “suitability” criteria Reconsider exceptions to priority categories Re-affirm need for university, medical, and large industrial sites ? ?

 Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) extension to complete the remand (June 30, 2017)  Outreach, education, meetings: Bend Chamber of Commerce Central Oregon Landwatch Commercial Realtors Planning Commission Bend Economic Development Advisory Board Bend-Metro Parks and Recreation District Bend-La Pine Schools Regional Solutions Team ODOT, DLCD, Deschutes County 1,000 Friends of Oregon Neighborhood Associations Oregon League of Women Voters

* Complete local adoption by April 2016 * Use a collaborative decision making process involving local experts and interested parties in a facilitated and expertly assisted process as described * Apply best planning and engineering practices involving scenario development and analysis * Engage, inform, and receive input from the public with techniques best suited for the project * Commit to providing additional resources subject to reviewing specific proposals

Project Management, Planning, Public Involvement, Policy, Plan, and Code Development, Findings Scenario Planning and Efficiency Measures Public Involvement, Steering Committee Facilitation UGB Methodology, Goal 14 and Public Finance Market Analysis Transportation Planning and VMT Analysis Urban Design and Visualization Web-based Public Involvement

3 TACs and Steering Committee (22+ meetings) Decision Making and Guidance Stakeholder interviews (25) and PIP MetroQuest (core values and draft results) Public Outreach and Input Community open houses, workshops (2) City Web Page MindMixer Education and Promotion Speakers bureau materials, logo, graphics, fact sheets

* Review of opportunity sites * Identification of code-related efficiency measures * Redevelopment analysis, market choice * Buildable Lands Inventory update * Housing Mix – 55% SDF/10% SFA/35% MF * Assumptions for special site needs * Urban form analysis and diagramming * Scenarios workshop on opportunity sites * Calibration of the Envision Tomorrow scenario model * Modelling and analysis of initial growth scenarios * Direction regarding spatial elements of the scenarios * Approval of efficiency measures * Approval of the Phase 1 Growth Scenarios package

* Package A: “Base Case” * Package B: Market-based approach that uses options and incentives to achieve higher densities. Examples include: * reducing minimum lot sizes and setbacks * reducing parking ratios * expanding allowed housing types in the RS zone * Package C: Includes a mix of incentives and regulatory constraints to both allow and require development to utilize land more efficiently. Examples, in addition to those identified above for Package B, include: * increasing minimum density standards in the RS and RM zones * strengthening master planning requirements for large blocks of vacant residential land * prohibiting new single family detached housing in the RH zone

Housing Capacity Compared to Need Employment Capacity Compared to Need

Define Study Area 2-mile area Only exception lands McMinnville Process Evaluate Study Area Over 25 maps created Implement Goal 14 factors Characterize areas, identify best lands after balancing Evaluate Specific Boundaries Scenarios formed to meet identified land needs Evaluate with more detailed models Analyze, balance, refine, select preferred alt Follow up Goal 5 safe harbor or standard ESEE Plan policies regarding urbanization Phase 2 below

#1 Efficient Accommodation Parcel size Improvement to land values Topography CCRS #2 Orderly and Economic PF Trans – barriers, reliance on congested corridors, system connectivity Water – gravity system, pressure zones Sewer – gravity, maximize existing and planned systems Storm water – DWPA, geology, water quality limited streams #3 ESEE Presence of Goal 5 resources Fire risk Planned parks, schools Proximity to irrigation district facilities Greenprint conservation areas #4 Compatibility with ag and forest Proximity to forest and farm land Evaluating over 18,000 acres of exception land in 2-mile study area per above.

#1 Efficient Accommodation Urbanized acres Housing units in UGB Jobs in UGB Density of jobs and housing % growth by infill #2 Orderly and Economic PF Trans – VMT, mode split, % along transit, intersection density, new lane miles, costs, new arterials and collectors, many others w TDM Water – Optimization, costs, system improvements Sewer – Optimization, costs, improvements Stormwater – Acres in DWPA and impervious soils #3 ESEE Acres in Goal 5 resource areas Acres in Goal 7 hazard prone areas Housing units within walking distance of schools, parks, trails Housing mix and affordability Jobs housing balance GHG emissions Impervious area Job growth in downtown #4 Compatibility ag & forest Perimeter of UGB proximate to farm and forest land and high value ag land Evaluating three expansion scenarios with Envision Tomorrow, TDM, Optimization.

LCDC Comfort Level? “Short” Planning Period Old Data + New Data Updated BLI and Housing Mix VMT & ILUTP Remand / McMinnville Remand / Goal 5 and 7