Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy. Christian Bourque Research Vice-President and Senior Partner

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 2 In an Nutshell  A look back in time  How our industry saw the campaign  How well we did: Do we deserve an A or a C?  Voter Behaviour: Exit Poll Research and the Ballot Box Bonus  Final thoughts …

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 3 Do You Remember Back Then …

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 4 The Industry Was Mostly Right in 2006 ConservativesLiberalsNDPBQGreen SES Research36%30%17%11%6% Leger Decima Ekos Strategic Counsel Ipsos Average Election result

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 5 Lots of Talk, Lots of Surveys, Little Movement

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 6 The Writ is Dropped! Date ConservativesLiberalsNDPBQGreen Angus Reid %23%18%9%10% Ekos Harris-Decima Ipsos Leger Nanos Average

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 7 On Average, the Patient Was Dead Wikipedia

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 8 Let’s Agree on an A- OK … B+

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 9 We All Said Conservative Minority Date ConservativesLiberalsNDPBQGreen Angus Reid %27%20%9%7% Leger Ekos Harris-Decima Ipsos Nanos Strategic Counsel Average Election result

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 10 La Belle Province

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 11 Back to the Future  On average, in 2006, except for Leger and Crop, the industry was 7 points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 42% - Leger 40%, Crop 44%)  On average, in 2008, except for Leger, the industry was 8 points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 38% - Leger 37%)  Is there such a thing as a massive stampede of Quebec headless chickens leaving the BQ in the last 24 hours of a campaign each and every election?  The short answer:  Massive spread in response rates between francophones and non-francophones  Overnight field windows do not capture more discreet voters  The issue of accents  If you don’t weight by language most used in household … you are toast!

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 12 The Exit Poll and How it Answers ‘What changed’ Or the Ballot Box Bonus Hypothesis

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 13 Methodology  On-line survey, using the Legerweb.com panel, conducted between 6:00 and 9:30 Eastern on October 14 th, among respondents who said they had voted at the election.  National sample of 4,524 Canadians (18+) of all regions. Data was weighted by region only.

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 14 The Ultimate Moment of Decision TotalCons.LiberalsNDPBQGreen Before the beginning of the campaign 44%60%38%35%47%28% Between the start… and debates Right after the debate Over the last weekend Today, before heading to the polling station Today, in the polling booth itself When, exactly, did you decide to support this political party?

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 15 No Issue Election ?

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 16 Canadians Vote for Losers! TotalCons.LiberalsNDPBQGreen Conservatives74%94%63%64%72%64% Liberals NDP Green Don’t know\Not sure Which party do you think will win the election?

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 17 Canadians Vote for Losers! TotalLiberalsNDPBQGreen For party63%55%68%64%72% ABC NDP22222 Did you essentially vote FOR (insert vote) or vote AGAINST the conservatives? (Base: 2707)

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 18 Final Thoughts …

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa 19 See you in two years!  We can all agree our industry is in good shape overall.  We need fine-tuning, not an overhaul!  If the dials don’t move, why do we do rolling polls published every morning? How does that help our industry?  Over-interpretation by the media  We are about the campaign but not the campaign  ‘Liberals Free-Falling: New Poll Shows’ (down 2% based on n=400)  How can we refine our art?  Should we move to a likely voter model? Since our political participation is as laughable as the US, should we adopt their strategy?  Should our weighting schemes evolve to account for how Canada has changed?  Are we ready to consider hybrid of fully on-line methodologies?

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa To get the results you have never had, you need to do what you have never done 5/1/2015