Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs

Some Key Conclusions Of WGII THIRD Assessment  Some effects of regional climate change can be observed now.  Ecosystems and species are vulnerable and some will be irreversibly damaged or lost.  Adverse impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on a) developing countries and the poor; b) small island and low-lying areas.  Changes in extremes could have major consequences  Adaptation is a necessary strategy to complement mitigation; yet capacity varies greatly.

How future assessments can be improved: Recommendations Of WG2 Third Assessment ( Policymakers Summary, p. 17)  More quantified assessment of all aspects, including in relation to extreme events  Assessment of possible thresholds  Understanding responses to multiple stresses  Improved knowledge of adaptation costs, obstacles, options  Assessment of the full range of impacts : monetary and non- market, in multiple metrics, eg numbers of people affected, land areas, species at risk, etc.  Improved regional assessment  Impacts under different stabilisation levels  Advances in relation to: a) risk assessment and management; b) decision-making processes; c) sustainable development initiatives.  Improved monitoring and observing effects of climate and other stresses on human and natural systems

What are current key the science questions relevant to policy? KEY POLICY ISSUES  Avoiding certain key effects  Developing effective adaptation  Seeking sustainable development in a future with climate change  Meeting the challenge of climate change and variability now SCIENCE QUESTIONS  Where are the key vulnerabilities – regions, sectors?  What would be rates/magnitudes/types of climate change that could lead to these effects?  Extent/limits of adaptive capacity?  Its effectiveness and cost? (especially vs. mitigation)  How does vulnerability and adaptive capacity vary under different paths of economic/social development?  Extent to which early effects are detectable, now?  Evidence for (and measurement of) effectiveness of (current) adaptation?

Assessment of effects which are observable now, and what can we learn from these. Assessment of effects of unmitigated climate change, and how might these vary under different development pathways. Assessment of effects avoided or reduced by adaptation. Assessment of impacts/adaptation requirements under different levels of mitigation The initially identified Four Key Issues for WGII in Fourth Assessment ( presented to IPCC Plenary, Paris 2003)

OUTLINE FOR WORKING GROUP II : IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY I. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES 1. Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and Managed Systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS AND SYSTEMS 2. New Methods and Scenarios of the Future 3. Fresh Water Resources and their Management 4. Ecosystems and their Services 5. Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries 6. Coasts and Low-lying Areas 7. Industry, Settlement, and Society 8. Human Health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION:REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS 17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice 18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk of climate change 20. Perspectives on Climate Change and Sustainability Red = topics of especial interest to the Pre-Sessional Consultation

Section IV: Assessment of Responses to Impacts  What more is now known about adaptation: especially options, costs, barriers  How much do we know about the trade-offs and complementarities between adaptation and mitigation  What we know about the risk of key impacts and its relationship to stabilisation/mitigation.  What conclusions can we draw from current knowledge regarding climate change in the context of other stresses and its implications for sustainability.

Chapter 17: Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice.  Will draw on and integrate material from sectoral and regional chapters; incl. information on adaptation to current climate variability and change.  Four sections: concepts; current practice; capacity and options; enhancing capacity

Chapter 18: Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation.  Overall action to address climate change will be a mix of adaptation and mitigation.  Adaptation and mitigation are quite different in many respects: e.g., the timing and space scales and stakeholders involved.  Available research on costs and damages avoided will be assessed.  Mixes of strategies, trade-off and synergies will be considered.  Uncertainty

The Cost of Stabilising CO 2 Concentrations (from Synthesis Report of TAR)

EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION Reduction in Atmospheric CO 2 ppm Costs of mitigation Costs of damage COSTDAMAGE Costs at local, national, global; or project level (Missing from TAR)

EFFECTIVENESS OF ADAPTATION Reduction in Atmospheric CO 2 ppm Costs of mitigation Costs of damage COSTDAMAGE Low Adaptation High Adaptation Costs of adaptation Costs at local, national, global or project level

What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation and impacts ? No action All mitigation All adaptation Mix of mitigate/ adapt/ impact Cost of adaptation lessmore Cost of mitigation lessmore Cost of impacts lessmore (Holdridge diagram)

Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change  What/where would be the key impacts (for given places, sectors, etc) under unmitigated climate change  What information is available to determine the climate change that would lead to occurrence of these.  Assess the response strategies to avoid occurrence : with a focus on stabilisation/mitigation, but also considering adaptation  Uncertainty, risk and decision making will be a central issue in this chapter.

Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions % Yield N. India S. Europe N. England Local producers ? Regional security ? Global food security ?

Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 2080s Unmitigated emissions Stabilisation of CO 2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO 2 at 550 ppm University of Southampton –75–50–25–5 to Change in annual runoff (%)

Millions at Risk in the 2080s

CONCLUSIONS  More quantification of damage estimates/damage reductions under array of different strategies (at project, regional, national and global levels)  Improved understanding of synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation (these strategies have different stakeholders, timescales, space-scales, etc).  Assessment of key impact levels (eg “food production, ecosystems, sustainable development…” in Art 2), and avoidance of these by both mitigation and adaptation