1 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessors 2004 Nick Tredennick, Editor Gilder Technology Report

2 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Overview Major trends affecting the microprocessor market –Value PC –Value transistor –Emerging economies Microprocessors –Computer microprocessors –Embedded microprocessors –Configurable microprocessors –PLD microprocessors

3 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick The PC Is Good Enough

4 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Transistors Are Good Enough

5 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Foundries: Adoption Rate By Process Modeled after: TSMC

6 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Semiconductor Trends Value PCs outsell leading-edge PCs –Mobile applications emerge –Design emphasis shifts from cost performance to cost-performance-per-watt Value transistors outsell leading-edge transistors –Transistor performance overshoots many applications –Increasing demand in emerging economies –Foundry strength grows

7 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessors x86AMD, Intel, Transmeta, Via ARCARC ARMARM MicroBlazeXilinx MIPSMIPS NiosAltera PowerPCIBM, Freescale SPARCSun TensilicaStretch, Tensilica Old stuffEveryone

8 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessor Applications Supercomputers Workstations and servers PCs Embedded systems –Automobiles –Cameras –Cell phones –Game players –MP3 players –Set-top boxes

9 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Computer Markets

10 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessor Markets

11 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Computer Microprocessors x86 –AMD –Intel –Transmeta –Via Proprietary –IBM –Freescale –Sun

12 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Embedded Microprocessors Microprocessor advantages –Flexibility –High-volume production –Usable by programmers Microprocessor limitations –Too slow –Too much power

13 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Embedded Microprocessors x86AMD, Transmeta, Via ARMARM PowerPCIBM, Freescale Old stuffEveryone –Triscend (Xilinx)

14 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessors and ASICs For the ultimate in flexibility, programmers map the application onto a general-purpose microprocessor. For the ultimate in performance, logic designers map the application into a custom circuit. Application MicroprocessorASIC Programmers Logic designers

15 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick ASICs & Microprocessors

16 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick ASICs & Microprocessors

17 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick ASICs & Microprocessors

18 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Configurable Microprocessors ARCARC AsceniumAscenium MIPSMIPS NiosAltera TensilicaStretch, Tensilica

19 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessor Design-time configurable microprocessor Run-time reconfigurable microprocessor Dynamically reconfigurable microprocessor ASIC FPGA ARC MIPS Tensilica Stretch Ascenium Microprocessor Evolution Programmers Logic designers

20 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick PLD Microprocessors Altera –Nios (soft) Xilinx –MicroBlaze (soft) –PicoBlaze (soft) –PowerPC (hard)

21 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Situation WhatValueWho FPGAs$3Blogic designers ASICs$30Blogic designers Microprocessors$40Bprogrammers FPGAs and microprocessors are usurping a declining ASIC market. Microprocessors (and their derivatives) will win.

22 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Recommendation Altera and Xilinx should become soft- core microcontroller companies (instead of PLD companies) Sell the same chips, but to a larger, programming-oriented customer base –Sell custom soft-core microcontrollers –Sell peripheral IP “Can’t find the perfect microcontroller? Make one—today.”

23 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Why? Today’s customers are logic designers; tomorrow’s customers will be programmers –Programming is more cost effective than logic design because it is a higher level of abstraction –There are ten times as many customers (more programmers than logic designers)

24 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick The Value PC PCs are good enough –Value PC shifts design emphasis to mobile systems –SRAM, DRAM, and flash are unsuitable for mobile systems –A new non-volatile memory device will emerge The first programmable logic company to adopt CMOS-compatible, non-volatile memory could gain a decisive advantage.

25 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick The Value Transistor Today’s transistors are good enough for most applications –The value transistor favors foundries over integrated device manufacturers –Fabs are good enough –3D wafer stacking will emerge The first programmable logic company to adopt wafer stacking could gain a decisive advantage.

26 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Microprocessor-like DSPs Network processors Specialty processors

27 1 May 2015Nick Tredennick Consequences Rise of mobile applications –New non-volatile memories Rise of foundries –Rise of soft (IP) cores –Horizontal fragmentation of integrated device manufacturers Rise of non-volatile FPGAs Rise of reconfigurable systems Growing market for embedded microprocessors –Tethered: traditional role –Mobile: supervisory role